November 7, 2007 - 10:21am

2007: A Republican Year

2007 was a Republican year in New Jersey, thanks to some significant local gains, a well played game of defense, the defeat of two ballot referendums, and the growing insignificance of Governor Jon “Hold Me Accountable” Corzine. It is arguably the first Republican year in New Jersey, albeit marginally, since 1997.

Republicans ousted State Senator Ellen Karcher in the 12th, has a net gain of two Assembly seats – defeating two-term Democrat Michael Panter in Monmouth County and winning back the 8th district seat they lost earlier this year when Francis Bodine switched parties to run for the Senate. The GOP won both Assembly seats in District 2, holding Frank Blee’s seat and picking up the one Jim Whelan vacated.

Republican Mayors will replace Democratic Mayors in three towns -- Toms River (pop.

89,706, the seventh largest town in the state), Hamilton Township, (pop. 87,109, the eighth largest), and Brick (pop. 76,119, the 12th largest). Symbolically, they elected a Republican Mayor of Rutherford, where incumbent Bernadette McPherson (who is a Bergen County Freeholder) won just 31% of the vote in an EnCap-related defeat. Franklin Township Mayor Brian D. Levine held on to win re-election in a Democratic town.

The GOP held the Atlantic County Executive post, and control of the Freeholder Boards in Atlantic and Monmouth counties. They fended off threats in Burlington, Somerset, Hunterdon and Salem counties.

Places where Democrats heavily outspent Republicans in traditionally GOP districts – the three open seats in the eighth, and three GOP veterans in the 39th – the Republicans held on by a comfortable margin. Republicans held potentially competitive Senate seats in Districts 11 and 14, with Sean Kean and Bill Baroni – both helped by endorsements from labor and environmental groups – winning with more than 60%.

And perhaps most significantly, New Jersey voters voted down two ballot initiatives where Democratic leaders where heavily invested: spending $450 million on stem cell research, and dedicating part of the sales tax for property tax relief.

For Democrats, the bright spots where the pickup of two State Senate seats: in District 1, where Jefferson Van Drew ousted incumbent Nicholas Asselta; and in District 2, where Whelan is going to the Senate and sending interim incumbent Sonny McCullough back to Egg Harbor Township. That means a net gain of one seat for the Democrats in the Senate.

Democrats held the two Assembly seats in the first district, re-elected Linda Greenstein – comfortably – in the 14th, and narrowly picked up Baroni’s Assembly seat. They got an assist from the conservative values Common Sense American group, which enabled Greenstein to get an extra $100,000 in rescue money; the 20% advantage in spending helped Democrat Wayne DeAngelo with his 500-vote margin.

The Democrats picked up Freeholder seats in Cumberland and Monmouth counties– there only gains. The failed to make gains in Atlantic, Burlington, and Somerset, and didn't take control (or elect a Sheriff) in Monmouth. One nice pickup -- Jonathan Hornick won 60% in ousting Marlboro Mayor Robert Kleinberg -- was tempered by the loss of Hamilton Mayor Glen Gilmore.

In District 22, where Assemblywoman Linda Stender spent most of the campaign boosting her 2008 rematch with Congressman Mike Ferguson, Stender won re-election to her Assembly seat by a relatively narrow margin against a challenger who spent about $100.

Comments

I agree. Local gains speak


I agree. Local gains speak volumes over millions dumped in narrow victories.

11/07/07 9:32 am

Don't forget Brian Levine in


Franklin Twp-Landslide Levine wins Again!

11/07/07 9:35 am

Democrats wasted millions on


Democrats wasted millions on this campaign, and don't really have anything to show for it.

That's pretty similiar to the way they govern too.

11/07/07 9:40 am

Power Moves South


A Republican year? Hardly. Out of 120 seats available in Trenton the Republicans only have 49. The real headline is that 2007 is a " Southern Year". For the first time ever the real power in Trenton will be from the unified Southern Democratic counties. In the Senate a bloc of Redd, Adler, Sweeney, Whelan, VanDrew, and Madden will position one of them , probably Sweeney into at least the number two postion in the Senate and guarantee the others good Committee posts. The Senators who represent these Southern Counties will make sure that their voices are heard in a unified manner in the Democratic caucus. Codey had better listen. The power in the Assembly runs through Roberts and a rising star Burzichelli. Greenwald will continue to control the Budget Committee. Albano is becoming a " player" to be reckoned with , especially with his Union ties. The power is in who controls the budget. With Roberts as Speaker, Greenwald as Assembly Budget Chairman and the possibility of Sweeney as Senate Budget Chairman all the State's finances must flow through the South. Republican Year? Not 2007!

11/07/07 9:49 am

LoBo's gotta be worried


With the 1st and 2nd District Senate seats going Democratic. He's gonna have a tough race next year.

11/07/07 9:57 am

dcdem


No, I seriously doubt it.

"I can remember way back when a liberal was one who was generous with his own money."- Will Rogers

11/07/07 10:07 am

firstamend07


Statewide, it was a moderate victory for Republicans. In key districts like 12, Republicans proved they can win even when outspent 10:1. Likewise, the results in 39 prove it takes more than dump trucks full of money to oust Republicans in safe districts, even if 39 is gradually becoming more moderate.

However, the biggest winner of the night for a major player (discounting Jenn Beck, Baroni, and all the other actual candidates) was undoubtedly Norcross. Although the Dems secured two key victories in the south, it doesn't represent a major power shift to the Dems in Trenton. Rather, the wins will spur an INTERNAL power shift, within the Democratic party and leadership, to the increasingly powerful and relevant Norcross. His voice is going to carry a lot more weight in Trenton from here on out.

11/07/07 10:28 am

Codey lost


despite the net gain of 1 seat in the Senate....Dick Codey is a loser this year.

that $4m on Karcher could have been better spent elsewhere. Her campaign was lackluster.

King George Norcross is the big winner. Be interesting to see how hard he supports a LoBiondo challenge in addition to Adler's race....I think he has enough cash to do both.

11/07/07 10:30 am

It's about time...


...the Republicans got back into the game. Keeps everyone on their toes, and provides for stronger checks and balances and better government.

Speaking of which, I hope the Senate Dems give some serious thought to kicking Codey's ass to the curb. Once and for all.

I know this will be the sticking point o' the day, but the reality is that Norcross succeeds because he helps provide superior candidates and well-managed county government. There is a very real opportunity for all of that enormous potential to be brought to bear on the state's fiscal house via the Senate.

Hear the voters-- Codey's leadership and lack of fiscal discipline has been rejected vis-a-vis the stem cell debacle. Let the fall guy be the fall guy.

If you can do this for the state, the local Republican gains will amount to little. If you do not, they will signify the beginning of a reverse of the long slide from power that the Republicans suffered over the past decade.

11/07/07 10:32 am

Spin, spin, spin


I'm not sure how losing a seat in the state senate and losing two freeholder seats equals a "Republican Year"; those Republican mayoral wins were in traditionally Republican parts of the state, as was the Haines ticket's victory in the 8th. The Somerset freeholder race almost went Dem, and Dems have a very healthy majority in the Assembly and a strengthened one in the Senate. Certainly, the ballot referendums were a defeat for Corzine and the Dems, but that was based on fiscal issues, not a pro-Republican shift.

We all expect Corzine and Lautenberg to win handily in the next two statewide elections and for Clinton, Obama or Edwards to carry the state, so on a national level, these "gains" hardly translate into much Republican growth and support.

11/07/07 10:33 am

Whats next for Franny


The 19th hole?

11/07/07 10:33 am

Dino - look at what PoliticsNJ said


The Republican Congressman is heavily invested in two South Jersey Senate races – District 1, where is close friend Nick Asselta is battling for a second term, and District 2, where he played a key role in helping Sonny McCullough secure the GOP nod in February against Frank Blee. If either of the senators lose, LoBiondo could find himself in trouble next year.

Both Senate candidates lost. Therefore LoBo is in trouble.

11/07/07 10:37 am

huh??


OK, so the fact that the Republicans actually lost a seat in the Senate in a year with that many indictments and federal investigations is a win??? Yea, the Dems lost Karcher, but lets be serious. The 12th is a Republican district, and Gannett won that election for Karcher four years ago. Or rather, lost it for Bennett. She never had a realistic chance of holding onto that seat. So way to go Republicans! You only lost one seat in a year that the Dems were practically handing you campaign fodder on corruption and scandal!

11/07/07 10:56 am

King of Spin


Marty - you are the King of Spin. Somehow you tried spinning Dennison's butt whopping as a good try. Moreover you fail to point to gains the GOP made locally in your own county. Additionally, Cherry Hill mayor Bernie Platt squeaked by against a guy who spent a grand total of $100. Does not bode well for Adler next year when the Democrat incumbent can only get 53% of the vote in Cherry Hill.

11/07/07 11:09 am

Attn: Gov. Corzine--Wake up call


Do you think that the political geniuses that Corzine has surrounded himself with understand that the 2 ballot questions that failed are a sign that voters are fed up with the BS gimmicks or do you think that they are now sitting in a room plotting out how they ram asset monetization through in the lame duck?

11/07/07 11:29 am

OutSpent


Since the Republicans were outspent by the Nazis 5 to 1, I would say it was a huge victory. Hey Martian, Bodine is looking for a caddy since you love carrying the manbag.

11/07/07 11:58 am

A Faulty Analysis...


if I ever saw one.

1. Karcher self-destructed with her inability to anticipate that her own property taxes would be an issue, and Panter, who otherwise would have survived, got dragged down in her implosion.
2. Gilmore got complacent and took his position for granted, making a horrible move with that budget crap.
3. Bodine's seat was never the Democrats' to lose.
4. DeAngelo gets in despite the anti-Gilmore turnout in Hamilton, and shows Baroni to have no coattails.
5. Democrats shored up their hold on SJ
6. Stem-cell was never properly sold to the people, and fell victim to the overall frustration (rightfully so) with the State's fiscal situation.

New Jersey is, and will continue to be, a Democratic state.

11/07/07 11:59 am

I hate to agree with MartinOne but...


Can Republicans translate these local wins to actually turning the state around? We would have to govern pretty damn well to convince people that we could do better than Corzine or to secure a win for the GOP in the Presidential race, and to me, those are still the most important things we can do.

"I'm not going to tell you this to insult you, but in the end, the McGreeveys, the Corzines, they're all going to be with me...not that they like me, but because they have no choice."

- The Democrats' Puppet Master

11/07/07 1:33 pm

Ballot Referenda Most Telling


Despite what some have opined above, the most important aspect of this election cycle was the defeat of TWO referenda. In our state's illustrious history, NJ voters had only deep-sixed ONE such ballot initiative. By voting down TWO such initiatives in one fell swoop, the good people of the Garden State have sent a message that they are tired of paying the freight for the whims of the left and expect leaner, more efficent government going forward.

Because these defeated initiatives were the pet boondoggles of Corzine (so much for monetization), Codey (so much for that 60% approval rating and endless littany of commercials), Norcross (too bad they won't be building a "research faclity" in Camden to spread around the greenbacks) and company, it was both a direct repudiation of Democrat policy and, more importantly, a rallying point for Republicans to retake the mantle of fiscal conservatism and frugality.

Then again, the Tom Wilson's of the world seem to feed at the trough of government largesse almost as much as their rivals. Regardless of the propensities and predelictions of the elitist element at the NJGOP helm, there is a resounding and palpable grass roots rebellion into which all GOP candidates should tap going forward

11/07/07 1:35 pm

Martin Two


Please photoshop in a ManBag in your picture, it just won't be Martin Two without it. If you need inspiration on what it should look like, here you go.

http://www.tugsa.org/graphics/officers/martin.jpg

11/07/07 2:21 pm

I agree


Wilson deserves NO credit for this. It was all good candidacies. He didn't really play in 12, much less 18, 19, 36 and 38.

However, I think this was a good Republican and conservative year since Blue Dog Wayne DeAngelo beat leftist Republicans Tom Goodwin and Adam Bushman for the seat in the 14th.

11/07/07 2:43 pm

Solid South, etc.


The argument that we are having is not whether Republicans will gain the Assembly or Senate anytime soon but instead whether the power structure now shifts to South Jersey since two senate seats were gained there last night. There is no sense that Republicans can truly threaten the Democratic leadership in a state that has a Democratic governor, two Democratic U.S. senators (Kean Jr. was your best chance in years), a Democratic Assembly (+16) and a Democratic senate (+6). The House battles next year are all in Republican-held seats -- Ferguson, Saxton and LoBiondo -- and there isn't a shred of evidence suggesting that any Democratic congressman from the state can be defeated anytime soon.

Realistically speaking, the pattern looks like this for local and statewide elections: Democrats put Republican seats in play, and not vice versa.

That said, Republicans won back some mayoral races and localities yesterday, and the ballot defeats (remember, open space funding won) were symbolic victories more than anything else, but victories nonetheless. It just seems odd that Wally would coronate a day that Democrats made gains in the senate and freeholder elections as a "Republican victory."

11/07/07 2:59 pm

MartinOne


Are you disappointed the Francis Bodine reform team didnt get in>?

11/07/07 3:42 pm

Money,Money, Money


Give me $4.5 million dollars, and I could EASILY take out a few Democrats. That's what Van Drew spent in District 1, maybe more when the reports are final.

And I like the part one of "labor friendly" Van Drew's van drivers nearly running over CWA 1040 workers who were canvassing for Asselta yesterday. Disgusting.

Welcome to the people's Republic of South Jersey!

In all, one lost senate seat, two gains in the assembly, two lost Freeholder seats, but some good mayoral races. Plus, the states voters get fiscally responsible, something that will never happen to the democrats. They will continue to tax and spend, but they will soon have to stop using the line "it was Whitman's fault" after having SEVEN years to fix the problems and only making them exponentially worse.

The defeat of ballot question one actually forces the democrats to do something, but don't hold your breath.

11/07/07 4:04 pm

Symbolic Victories


Who else would put his comments interms of "the argument that we are having" in attempting to define discussion on a board such as this one, frequented by people with varying views on multifaceted issues. Maybe YOU are having that discussion because it deflects yesterday's unsettling events for your party.

 As you have often pointed out, the GOP has a tremendous amount of baggage hindering it from regaining any semblance of electoral momentum, from W's serial policy blunders to the war in Iraq to inept leadership at the state level. Yet, despite these factors which you have incessantly cited in predicting the dissolution of the GOP as a viable political party in NJ, Republican candidates most crucially retook political geography that had traditionally been their's. Regaining one's strongholds after an insurgent takeover is the first step to moving forward. This is hardly the people's tsunami you have been predicting for months on end.  If you can't knock out your rival when he's at his weakest, you have pause to worry.   

As far as symbolic victories go, you are completely out to lunch on the nature and power of ballot initiatives. They tend to not only measure the temperature of the political climate, but operate to galvanize like-minded people to the extent they realize they are not helpless to chart their own destiny. The real issue going foreward is whether the NJGOP can tap into this popular sentiment against gratuitous spending in an era of fiscal insolvency. While I have my doubts, at least there is a window of opportunity.

11/07/07 4:30 pm

sunrise tomorrow


Be prepared for Van Drew and his cronies to wake thursday morning and suddenly realize we are in a state of fiscal crisis! This crisis will, of course, call for drastic (but temporary, right?) increases in every tax that they don't call at tax (fees, surcharges, etc.). Now that they've bought their way into power by talking like conservatives they can forget about the voters and start serving their Camden County Masters again! Oh that's right Jeff and his lackey Pickering got all that dirty dough with "no strings attached". I guess we can start calling Norcross the Wizard of Oz. Pay no attention to the Man Behind the curtain!

11/07/07 4:47 pm

People with varying views on multi-faceted issue?


Yeah, varying between the right and the far right. Martin's correct. Republicans won back seats yesterday in the Legislature they should not have lost and were forced to defend seats that they used to hold comfortably. I think each party has a ceiling of what they can reasonably win and the Dems are probably close to it. We saw the Reps hit their ceiling in 1991 and go downwards after that. Also, it's a long way from winning local races to winning statewide. New Jersey remains a moderate to liberal state. W/O a single unifying battle cry (like repealing Florio's tax increase), the Reps won't win the statehouse for a while.

11/07/07 4:49 pm

votedemsout


WOW DUDE, warn someone before you send em to a link like that. I REALLY didn't need to see marty that up close and personal.

11/07/07 6:01 pm

"A Republican Year"


You have to be kidding me with that statement............. 

The pigs are running wild in south jersey and the Northern PIGS remain - Both Republican and Democrooks alike. 

So how are the Republicans or New Jersey any better off after this Tuesdays election? 

What a joke and the press tries to sell the story that  2 of 4 questions voted down as a DUMB statement from the voters that they want spending to stop.

Hell, they even screw it up and elected Republicans in Lawnside, Camden County a true Democrook minority community.

11/08/07 7:21 pm

Wally: You've Missed The Forest For The Trees


This election was really about expressing contempt for the status quo.

Most New Jeseyans don't register to vote and of those that do most don't come to the polls. How pathetic is that?

Theoretically we have two parties; but practically speaking this is a one party state and its color is neither red nor blue but GREEN!

Cash is king in the legally corrupt world of NJ politics.

Even in races like Karcher v Beck; people were perversely voting for reform/change; not for a Bush/Republican agenda.

Of course bringing in a creature like Beck to implement reform is like inviting Jack the Ripper to take your daughter to the prom because her old boyfriend had a wart on his nose.

As long as pay to play is the overriding dynamic in NJ politics; nothing much will change.

All you "old pros" can seem to see is an either/or universe of establishment tweedledum Democrats trading places with establishment tweedledee Republicans; those days are numbered.

 

 

 

 

 

From Frederick Douglass

If there is no struggle there is no progress......Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will.

11/09/07 1:31 am

Yikes


I agree with Nick - money is the problem.  Until we stop the political machines from corrupting the system, we will continue to have the same problems.

 

 "I am a Republican, a black, dyed in the wool Republican, and I never intend to belong to any other party than the party of freedom and progress."

 

Frederick Douglass 

11/09/07 8:10 am