NJGOP memo: trend against gains for sitting Gov.

TRENTON – The state Republican Party today released an internal memo detailing the history of sitting governors and their midterm won/loss record. Bottom line: since 1963, six seats gained is dwarfed by 84 losses.

“A Governor’s first mid-term election has not been (too) kind to any of New Jersey’s first-term chief executives over the last half-century,” stated the memo, which was authored by NJ GOP spokesman Rick Gorka. “Simply put, despite Governor Christie’s current strong job approval and image ratings, history paints a bleak picture for our Party’s chances to gain any legislative seats on Tuesday.”

Break-even results would be “buck(ing) the odds,” the memo said. “Seven of the last eight Governors have lost legislative seats in their first midterm election, and given the tough obstacles currently lined up against our Party, we do not expect this trend to change this year.”

Even though history favors Republican losses, the state redistricting process – counted as a win for the Democrats – put almost zero GOP lawmakers at risk, save sacrificial lamb Assemblyman Domenick DiCicco (R-4), of Franklin Township.

Here’s the stats from the NJ GOP:

State trends:

Corzine (2007 midterm): Loss of 1 legislative seat

McGreevey (2003 midterm): Gain of 6 legislative seats

Whitman (1995 midterm): Loss of 2 legislative seats

Florio (1991 midterm): Loss of 21 legislative seats

Kean (1983 midterm): Loss of 3 legislative seats

Byrne (1975 midterm): Loss of 16 legislative seats

Cahill (1971 midterm): Loss of 26 legislative seats

Hughes (1963 midterm): Loss of 15 legislative seats

Total: 78 seats lost (15 Senate and 63 Assembly seats) – Average of 10 seats lost per election

National trends:

Obama (2010 midterm): Loss of 69 legislative seats

Bush (2002 midterm): Gain of 9 legislative seats

Clinton (1994 midterm): Loss of 63 legislative seats

Reagan (1982 midterm): Loss of 25 legislative seats

Carter (1978 midterm): Loss of 18 legislative seats

Nixon (1970 midterm): Loss of 10 legislative seats

Johnson (1966 midterm): Loss of 51 legislative seats

Kennedy (1962 midterm): Loss of 1 legislative seat

Eisenhower (1954 midterm): Loss of 19 legislative seats

Truman (1946 midterm): Loss of 67 legislative seats

Total: 28 Senate seats and 286 House seats lost in 10 elections

"The governor still has to come to bat."
—Atlantic County Executive Dennis Levinson, on Atlantic City.