Murray on CD12 Global Polling Memo: ‘Toss-up’

State Senator Linda Greenstein (D-14) leads in the race for Congress in the 12th District, according to an internal polling memo, but faces a significant chunk of voters who are unfamiliar with her and large numbers of undecided voters.

According to Global Strategy Group’s survey of 401 likely Democratic Primary voters conducted between February 28 and March 3, Greenstein earns 30% of the Democratic Primary vote, leading Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-15) (20%) and Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula (D-17) (7%).

The margin of error for the poll at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.9%.

“This polling memo suggests it’s still an open race,” said Patrick Murray, political scientist and pollster with Monmouth University, cautioning about any jumps to conclusions about Greenstein leading.

“Throw out the margin for error for a moment, half of the electorate is undecided,” Murray added. “The poll shows that this race is a toss-up.”

Moreover, 52% of the 12th District’s voters are unfamiliar with Greenstein, the memo says.

The senator’s lead over her rival grows to 32 points among voters who are familiar with her (50% Greenstein/18% Watson Coleman/6% Chivukula).

“Greenstein maintains a significant lead when voters learn more about the candidates,” the memo says. “Greenstein maintains a significant, six-point edge in the race when voters hear short, informative paragraphs about the candidates outlining Greenstein’s progressive record of getting things done for women and families (37% Greenstein/31% Coleman/13% Chivukula).

“Greenstein leads in the informed vote by 56 points in her home base LD 14, and also leads in the rest of district, outside of LD 15 (Watson Coleman’s home district) and LD 17 (Chivukula’s home district).”

Murray noted the absence in that tally of the Union County portion of the district, where Chairman Jerry Green is expected this week to issue an endorsement for one of the competing candidates.

"Since the print publication of this list, Christie, in his capacity as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, helped decisively turn the midterm elections in the Republicans' favor, which makes him a bit more influential than we initially gave him credit for, post-Bridgegate. So when your state governments do absolutely nothing for you for the next four years, be sure to thank him!"
—GQ