The Biggest Stakeholders of Campaign '07

1
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Senate President
Description:

The Senate President could lose by winning, and he could lose by losing. If Democrats pick up a few Senate seats in South Jersey, Codey’s re-election as Senate President could potentially be in jeopardy. If Ellen Karcher loses, Codey has seen his #1 investment go down the tubes, and if Joseph Ariyan wins – or worse, if he loses just narrowly – the Senate President may have a real problem with Norcross of the North. And to imagine Whelan being with anyone but George Norcross is unlikely.

Post-Election: LOSER!
Dick Codey lost Ellen Karcher, his friend and ally, while George Norcross’ South Jersey Democrats picked up two Senate seats.  And he championed the rejected Stem Cell referendum.  He’ll get re-elected Senate President (an at-will term) with Kingmaker Norcross; support, but he’ll have less power in his own caucus. 

2
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South Jersey Democratic leader
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All eyes are on South Jersey on Tuesday, where the powerful South Jersey Democratic leader is looking at the pickup of Republican State Senate seats in districts 1, 2 and 8. If he wins all three, he’s the front runner for #1 on the PoliticsNJ.com Power List, especially because he seems free and clear from Commerce Bank. Yes, ahead of the Governor.

Post-Election: WINNER!
Maybe Sonny McCullough said it best in his concession speech: “I’d like to congratulate George Norcross.”  Norcross invested heavily in electing Jeff Van Drew and Jim Whelan, and his power has increased exponentially.  And by supporting Dick Codey for Senate President, he’ll make his guy, Steve Sweeney, the second most powerful guy in the Senate.

3
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U.S. Congressman
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The Republican Congressman is heavily invested in two South Jersey Senate races – District 1, where is close friend Nick Asselta is battling for a second term, and District 2, where he played a key role in helping Sonny McCullough secure the GOP nod in February against Frank Blee. If either of the senators lose, LoBiondo could find himself in trouble next year.

Post-Election: LOSER!
Note to Frank LoBiondo: Never let Jeff Van Drew out of your sight.  Losses by LoBo’s guys, Nick Asselta and Sonny McCullough, are bad for LoBiondo’s future in a district that seems to be turning blue.  Has Maryannie Harper lost her mojo?

4
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Governor
Description:

The Hold Me Accountable man felt confident enough to go to Portugal the week before the election. In the old days, a loss of seats for the Governor’s party in the mid-term legislative elections was expected, but as New Jersey gets blue’r, there is an expectation of victory.

Post-Election: LOSER!
Jon Corzine (and Gary Rose) misjudged the wisdom of the crowd, and still doesn’t get that sometimes voters are smarter than politicians – as evidenced by the rejection of the two public questions.
Good luck with monetization! Corzine will have a tougher time getting along with Jeff Van Drew and Jim Whelan than he did with Nick Asselta and Bill Gormley – maybe, in a way, the Governor had a loss of three Senate seats. 

5
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Republican State Chairman
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Will Republicans hold the Republican State Chairman accountable for the results of the ’07 elections? Wilson needs to show a silver lining in Senate and Assembly races, defend majority control in Atlantic and Monmouth, or win a hotly contested countywide race in Burlington, where his business partnership with Bob Stears has become a campaign issue.

Post-Election: WINNER!
We would have held Tom Wilson accountable if the GOP had lost.  It was a good night for the GOP.  Nick Asselta and Sonny McCullough weren’t Wilson’s fault: Asselta lost because he didn’t take Jeff Van Drew seriously for the last three years, and Wilson preferred Frank Blee for Senate.  The real GOP victory was in defending seats in Atlantic, Burlington, Monmouth and Somerset counties, and mayoral wins in Hamilton, Toms River and Brick. 

6
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Executive Editor, Asbury Park Press
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Kudos to the newspaper chief, who had the testicular fortitude to become a stakeholder by making endorsements in hotly-contested state and local races when other papers of record, like the Star-Ledger, did not.

Post-Election: WINNER!
Democrats may not deal with the Asbury Park Press anymore, but just about all of Skip Hidlay’s endorsed candidates won.

7
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Burlington County Republican leader
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The Burlington County GOP boss, who wrestled control of his Republican machine from his handpicked successor, Mike Warner, earlier this year, is battling to hold District 8, normally GOP-solid, and for countywide offices. If he loses these key races, it could mean the Burlington Republican empire is about to fall.

Post-Election: WINNER!
Despite all the hype, all the money, and all the infighting, Glenn Paulsen’s Republicans turned out to be just fine.  Ironically, Phil Haines won with 61% and Diane Allen got just 56%.

8
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President, New Jersey AFL-CIO
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The labor leader won’t lose anything if Ellen Karcher and Joe Ariyan lose, but he won’t look good if two of his GOP endorsements, Nick Asselta and Phil Haines, go down. And Wowkanech didn’t take a stand in District 2.

Post-Election: LOSER!
Charlie Wowkanech was heavily invested in Nick Asselta and wouldn’t help Democrats in the second district. His only real wins were Republicans. Now his problem is that Team Norcross may want him gone.

9
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Assembly Speaker
Description:

The Assembly Speaker could lose Assembly seats on Tuesday, with Democratic seats in Districts 1, 2, 8 (sort of), 12 and 14 up for grabs. Of course, Roberts could pick up Republican seats in Districts 2, 8, 11, 12, 14 and 39. The loss of a seat or two won’t really hurt the Speaker, but some pickups – especially in South Jersey – would help him a great deal.

Post-Election: EVEN!
Assembly Democrats lost two seats – one of them was Franny Bodine, who wasn’t really a Democrat.  Joe Roberts essentially replaced Michael Panter – a thorn to leadership – with Wayne DeAngelo, who will be the favorite legislator in District 14.  Roberts has no opposition for power in his caucus.

10
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Monmouth County Republican Chairman
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The Monmouth County Republican Chairman is in danger of losing control – and his job.

Post-Election: WINNER!
Adam Puharic is safe.  Republicans control the entire Monmouth legislative delegation, keep their control of the Freeholder Board, and continue to hold the Sheriff and County Clerk posts.

RankNameOccupation
11JIM SAXTONU.S. Congressman

The 12-term Republican Congressman faces a potentially tough challenge for re-election next year against Senate Judiciary Chairman John Adler. If Republicans lose legislative seats in the 8th district and the Toms River mayoral race, it won’t make life any easier for Saxton.

Post-Election: WINNER!
Republicans won Burlington and Ocean.  Jim Saxton can sleep tonight, but maybe not again for another year. 

12KEITH DAVIS AND BILL GORMLEYAtlantic County Republican Chairman/former State Senator

Davis is the Atlantic County Republican Chairman, trying hard to hold the County Executive post with Dennis Levinson, hold the State Senate seat with Sonny McCullough, hold Frank Blee’s Assembly seat, and hold control of the Atlantic County Board of Freeholders. Gormley, McCullough’s predecessor and for years the de facto GOP boss, is more heavily invested in the Democrats this year.

Post-Election: WINNERS!
Keith Davis lost a Senate seat – McCullough wasn’t his first choice anyway – and picked up an Assembly seat.  More importantly, Republicans continue to control county government. Bill Gormley won a Senate seat – and he’ll restore his friendship with Dennis Levinson – if he wants to.

13ALEX DECROCEAssembly Minority Leader

Expectations are always low for the aging Republican leader, who won’t be Speaker next year but probably won’t have a challenge for Minority Leader either. All in all, he could have gone to Portugal too.

Post-Election: WINNER!
Alex DeCroce picked up two Assembly seats.  So at least Rick Wright keeps his job – but an extra two seats doesn’t mean that much more.

14GLEN GILMOREMayor, Hamilton Township

The Mayor of Hamilton is the only endangered candidate who makes the list – because he might lose on Tuesday. So this onetime rising star, who was viewed as a potential statewide candidate eight years ago, could be out of a job – ironic, since he opted out of a publicly financed State Senate race because he didn’t want to risk his current post, the one he thought was a sure thing.

Post-Election: LOSER!
Let the Peter Shapiro references begin.  Glen Gilmore, the guy people thought could be Governor, wound up losing his lower office because he held back information about local finances.  Will we ever see him again?

15BRIAN BROWNExecutive Director, Common Sense America

The conservative activist is spending a ton of money trying to take out a few Democrats in New Jersey, especially Linda Greenstein. If he beats the Assembly Judiciary Chairman, he can claim some of the credit (along with Bill Baroni’s coattails), and if he doesn’t, he’ll have to explain why he came to New Jersey in the first place.

Post-Election: LOSER!
Linda Greenstein won easily. Brian Brown got her a 20% hike in her campaign budget with $100,000 in rescue money – and a ton of good press. Greenstein spent it on her joint campaign with Wayne DeAngelo – so effectively, Brown helped Greenstein get DeAngelo the extra 500 votes he needed to win. And Nelson Albano won too.

16JOSEPH CRYANDemocratic State Chairman/Assemblyman

The Democratic State Chairman is on the list, but probably shouldn’t be. If Democrats win, others get the credit (despite his leadership), and if his party loses, he’s not at the front of the blame line either.

Post-Election: WINNER!
Joe Cryan did just fine – winners & losers seem to have kind words for the Democratic State Committee.  

17JOSEPH FERRIERO AND ROBERT ORTIZBergen County Party Chairmen

Ferriero, the Bergen County Democratic Chairman, has bet heavily on the Republican 39th district; if he takes out Gerry Cardinale, he’s a hero – although he doesn’t lose all that much if he doesn’t. Ortiz is losing his political virginity on Election ’07 and both parties are watching to see if he knows how to do it. What about Bernadette McPherson (in the Rutherford mayoral race) win for Ortiz -- does that matter? And Loretta Weinberg's curiously-timed personal attack on Ferriero has put both of her running mates on the firing line. Though they are sure to be reelected how long they hold their seats under withering scrutiny is another matter and a Ferriero emboldened by success in 39 is sure to turn up the heat.

Post-Election: LOSERS!
Joe Ferriero got beat by Gerald Cardinale, and Bernadette McPherson lost.  Rob Ortiz had some gains at the local level, but nothing extraordinary – and maybe he missed an opportunity in the anti-EnCap 36th district.

18GEORGE GILMOREOcean County Republican Chairman

The Ocean County Republican Chairman could lead the only genuine GOP machine in the state if his party suffers losses in Atlantic, Monmouth and even Somerset – but Gilmore still has a tremendous amount on the line if his candidate doesn’t win the Toms River and Brick mayoral race.

Post-Election: WINNER!
George Gilmore replaced Democratic Mayors in Toms River and Brick with Republicans.

19DR. FREDERICK HERRMANNExecutive Director, New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission

The Executive Director of the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission is heavily invested in the Clean Elections pilot program, where the future of public financing of legislative races – and others – is at stake.

Post-Election: WINNER!
It looks like Clean Elections may have worked, which is good news for Fred Herrmann.

20LEONARD LANCESenate Minority Leader

The Senate Minority Leader isn’t really a stakeholder at all. He could have been in Portugal all Fall as he’s been AWOL for most of the campaign, leaving GOP Senate candidates to fend for themselves and raise their own money. But win or lose, he’s gone in January – Tom Kean, Jr. has more than enough votes to lead the Senate Republican Caucus.

Post-Election: LOSER!
Statesman Leonard Lance had four years to plan for the 2007 midterm elections, but he didn’t seem to have it on his schedule.  In his defense, he’s a policy wonk, and he should have delegated the partisan role.  (Too bad he didn’t have any backup from his senior staff.)  Young freshman GOP Senators like Jennifer Beck, Sean Kean and Bill Baroni don’t owe Lance a thing.  Did anyone ever say that about Don DiFrancesco?

Comments

GOP will hold in District 1 & District 2.


GOP holds in 1 & 2 with everything working against them. Even the PRESS of ATLANTIC was instructed to issue a fake poll only 2 days prior to an election.

This is one of the most irresponsible moves by a newspaper even by New Jersey standards. JOHN FROONJIAN of the AC PRESS will be the laughing stock of other journalists since his name was used to issue the fake results.

Getting out of the DEMOCRATS 4 BILLION DOLLAR a year DEFICIT will get the NEW GOP PARTY back in control starting TUESDAY.

11/05/07 2:57 pm

Asselta and McCoullough Will Lose


Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May, and Atlantic counties will be run by Democrats by the close of the polls on Tuesday. All power and influence will for the first time " run through the South" . The six Southern Counties will be united and have a real opportunity to establish the State agenda for many years.

11/05/07 3:10 pm

'Splain to Me Sumpin Lucy...


How is it that Cryan gets no credit or blame and is listed several slots below Codey and Roberts...but Wilson ends up north of DeCroce and Lance and has the responsibility that Cryan doesn't? I think you're right about Cryan and the same holds true for Wilson...he's not running the legislative races...DeCroce and Lance are. Me thinks in this instance your distaste for Mr. Wilson has colored your thinking Mr. Edge.

11/05/07 3:25 pm

Sorry Sticks


While I do not consider it a forgon conclusion that all of the races will go Dem, it is pretty clear that Whelan will win, and Nick and Jeff will come to the wire, with the edge going to Jeff.

11/05/07 3:27 pm

It won't even be that close, blue


Nick will concede by 10 pm.

By their own account, the poll that the Press "was instructed" to release (by Martians, presumably) fails to account for the following:

"Independent voters were breaking for Van Drew 2-1. Eighteen percent of poll participants said they were unaffiliated, but 47 percent of registered voters in Cape May County and 64 percent in Cumberland are independents. That swing vote may be under-represented in the poll."

This tells us all we need to know about why the Press was more definitive in their headline and their lede. The margin is actually two or three times what you see.

11/05/07 4:00 pm

So now that the results are in Wally What Say Ye???


How'd the stakeholders fare?

11/07/07 10:41 am

Tom Wilson Is A Winner?


You could hand him every winning lottery ticket picked for a month and he wouldn't be a winner.

11/07/07 2:42 pm

I still don't get


How Cryan and Wilson deserved to be judged differently. Does anyone think Wilson has more juice with County Chairs or Leg Leaders than Cryan does?

11/07/07 4:49 pm