February 3, 2008 - 9:34am
Clinton, McCain lead in new poll
By Editor
Tags: poll, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, Ron Paul, Monmouth University, Hillary Clinton, Patrick Murray, Mike Huckabee, Gannett, New Jersey primary, Super Tuesday
A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll of likely Democratic primary voters has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 50%-34% in New Jersey’s February 5 Democratic presidential primary. Among likely GOP voters, John McCain has a 55%-23% lead over Mitt Romney, with 7% for Mike Huckabee and 3% for Ron Paul.
On Friday, a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll commissioned by Democratic powerhouse George Norcross and obtained by PolitickerNJ.com showed Clinton with a six point lead, 44%-38%.
“As expected, Giuliani supporters in New Jersey flocked to McCain, reflecting similar moderate views which are in line with most Republican voters here,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “In the other race, it is appearing difficult for Obama to break Clinton’s hold on the traditional Democratic electorate in the state, despite an active television campaign and an appearance in the state.”
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NEW ZOGBYPOLLSUN !!!!!! VIRTUAL TIE Obama-Clinton
Released: February 03, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain on a Roll; Clinton, Obama Neck-and-Neck in Key Super Tuesday States
Pollster John Zogby: “The Mac Attack appears ready to launch on Super Tuesday. McCain’s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over 50. Romney holds a double digit lead there among conservatives and leads 56%-18% among very conservative voters. Romney also leads among white voters and among those who say that the war on terror and immigration are top issues.
“McCain will do well because of his big leads in the other states and because of winner-take-all states. But Romney may at least have a strong showing in California. In Missouri, Huckabee is in second place by virtue of strong support with conservative and (especially) very conservative voters.
“On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close. Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).
In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).
“Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.
“It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates.”
Key Super Tuesday States by the Numbers:
New Jersey Republicans
Republicans
1-31/2-2
McCain
54%
Romney
23%
Huckabee
6%
Paul
4%
Undecided/someone else
13%
Sample: 870 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
New Jersey Democrats
Democrats
1-31/2-2
Clinton
43%
Obama
42%
Gravel
1%
Undecided/someone else
14%
Gravel?
That 1% in the Zogby poll will be sorely disappointed when they don't find Gravel's name on the ballot.
I just got in from church
And there were a ton of Obama canvassers around my church in Montclair. Plus, I came home to three automated phone calls-2 from Clinton supporters and Dick Codey telling me to vote for Obama. Finally an exiting NJ Presidential Primary!