September 21, 2007 - 2:04pm
News

Could it be John Adler vs. Diane Allen next year?

Congressman James Saxton has given absolutely no indication that he might not seek re-election to a thirteenth term, but given the trend of other House members around the country, it's reasonable to speculate that he could retire. Saxton is the presumptive favorite to win next year -- even against a first-tier challenger like Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman John Adler -- but the first time since he won a hotly contested GOP primary for an open seat in 1984, he may have a real race on his hands. Democrats have made gains at the local level in Burlington and Ocean counties, and George W. Bush won just 51% in this district in 2004.

(Editor's Note: a spokesman for Saxton strongly denied any discussion of retirement, saying that the Republican will definitely seek re-election next year.)

Saxton does have one big incentive: if Republicans win back control of the House, he would be in line to chair the powerful House Armed Services Committee. But Saxton has been passed over before -- the House GOP leadership passed over him for the chairmanship of the Resources Committee in 2005 -- and if the current political environment holds, he might view the chances of a Republican majority as less than likely.

Saxton will be 65-years-old next year, and it is possible he could decide that a enormously expensive fight with Adler just to get two more years in the minority might not be worth it. Saxton, a teacher and real estate agent before winning a congressional seat 23 years ago, is not an wealthy man -- his net worth, according to his financial disclosure reports -- ranges from a low of $260,000 to a high of $1 million. He could decide to make some money over the next few years, and as a senior Armed Services Committee member, he could probably land a nice private sector post. And a win in 2008 gets him through one more race before he has to deal with redistricting.

The last time a veteran Congressman decided that a tough race wasn't worth it was in 1994, when Democrat William Hughes chose not to seek an eleventh term. Hughes was facing a rematch with his '92 opponent, Republican Assemblyman Frank LoBiondo, in a year (Bill Clinton's first mid-term election) that was looking good for Republicans. In retirement, the 63-year-old former Assistant Cape May Prosecutor became the United States Ambassador to Panama, and then found his way to a lucrative affiliation with a major New Jersey law firm.

WALLY EDGE can be reached via email at politicsnj@aol.com.

Comments

Saxton has 2 terms left


Jim retires when he decides, not the Dems. NO ONE can come within 10 points.

And for the record: A Haines beats Diane in a primary any day. The Haines name is strong in Burl and Ocean.

09/21/07 3:33 pm

Interesting


I do think Saxton barring any problems should run AND win easily. But in this sceanario, lets be honest, regardless of all the pithy bla bla Martin may bring, bottom line is credibility and support of your constituents. Adler is a Norcross hack pure and simple. Diane is her own person and has backing of the Vets and others that Adler cannot even start to scratch the surface of.

09/21/07 3:35 pm

Bring on Al Leiter


... if Saxton retires.

09/21/07 4:26 pm

Retiring House Rs are a trend


Cong Ramstad of Minnesota, 61 years old - just a little younger than Cong Saxton, recently announced his retirement, citing burnout. And he had a lock on his district. Meanwhile Congressman Shays of Connecticut recently threatened to retire unless he got ranking member (or Chair) on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. And there are more to come. I think Saxton might retire for similar reasons, if not next year than in 2010. Plus the climate here in DC for Rs is terrible. They are in a hunkered down position, waiting for the next scandal to come.

09/21/07 4:35 pm

Retiring House Rs are a trend


Cong Ramstad of Minnesota, 61 years old - just a little younger than Cong Saxton, recently announced his retirement, citing burnout. And he had a lock on his district. Meanwhile Congressman Shays of Connecticut recently threatened to retire unless he got ranking member (or Chair) on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. And there are more to come. I think Saxton might retire for similar reasons, if not next year than in 2010. Plus the climate here in DC for Rs is terrible. They are in a hunkered down position, waiting for the next scandal to come.

09/21/07 4:36 pm

retire


He'll win, but he'll have to work a little harder than usual. He may not have the stomach for it. Adler and the Camden machine will sling some mud for sure.

09/21/07 6:35 pm

What mud have they thrown at


What mud have they thrown at him in the past?

09/21/07 11:02 pm

Adler just seems like the


Adler just seems like the kind of guy that McGreevy would meet at a reststop on the Parkway.

09/22/07 2:08 am

Speculation


I for one believe that Saxton's seat is safe. But Adler, particularly in 08, will prove to be the toughest challenger he has ever faced. Adler is smarter and more likeable and if he has the DCCC and the SJ Dems behind him, who knows what could happen. Let's not forget, however, that Diane Allen has to get through a pretty tough race this year. Agree with me or not, her opponent in Dennison is real. Should Dennison win, I would think that her political career is done and over with. No matter what, if Adler were to face Allen, I think Adler would win that one. Adler is a much bigger player statewide than Allen has ever been.  Also Allen doesn't have the name Saxton does. Plus I don't see Saxton retiring in 08 or even 2010.

09/22/07 8:01 am

How sad


It's truly pathetic when an incumbent Republican Congressman in a gerrymandered safe seat he drew himself has to worry about a challenge from an ultra-liberal taxaholic who raised income, sales and small business taxes as well as backing 100% of the rest of the McGreevey-Codey-Corzine agenda.

This seat shouldn't even be in play except for the fact that Saxton himself has gone so far over to the left himself that few people care whether he wins or loses. He has no base remaining and simply relies on the partisan nature of the district to win.

09/22/07 8:25 am

Two points


1. Saxton cannot be beaten regardless of his opponent. His is too respected and has earned re-election. And certainly a Norcross-tainted liberal from Cherry Hill cannot win in Burlco or Ocean regardless of who he runs against.

2. Diane Allen, while a good senator, would get crushed in a primary. She represents her constituents well in Trenton but her left-leaning record will will ensure a defeat against a decently funded conservative.

09/22/07 8:38 am

More Likely Scenario


It may come down to this: Saxton faces Adler in the election. If Saxton wins, he will retire shortly after the election and subsequently be replaced by an appointed Allen.   

09/22/07 10:58 am

Congress vacancies aren't appointed


You have to have a primary and special election, as was the case with Sires last year. Allen will never win a primary.

Those rules only apply to the State Legislature.

 

09/22/07 1:46 pm

Changing district, changing state, changing nation


Let's go ahead and state the obvious: Democrats are set to make historic gains in '08 in Congress and win back the White House, especially with the lame, pandering candidates such as McCain, Guiliani and Romney as the sacrificial lamb. Taking into account, as dcdem did, that Saxton isn't getting any younger and that his party is going to have even less power after November 2006, I think it entirely possible that this may very well be the final election Saxton participates in. Though Lautenberg may be nearly 20 years older than Saxton, he seems many times more spry and mentally sharp than Saxton, who has done little of note recently besides repeat the same Bush mantra, "We're fighting Al Queda in Iraq and can never retreat from the battlefield" -- a fundamental misunderstanding of what is happening on the ground there and the civil war that exists between Shiites and Sunnis.

The world has changed since Saxton, out of touch but certainly entrenched, first took office decades ago, and he has no ability to yield his fundamentalist positions on stem cell funding or other matters because this is an inflexible, head-in-the-sand Republican who has been worshipping too long at the altar of Bush-Cheney.

The writing is on the wall: Saxton will get out sooner than later, and the district will be better for it. And, like the rest of the nation and the state, district 3, particularly Burlington County, is becoming more Democratic each year; no conservative in the mold of say, fringe-right winger Mike Doherty, could take this seat after Saxton leaves, and Adler, should he have proper funds, may very well beat Saxton next year. I would welcome an Adler-Allen challenge any day of the week, especially since Allen has voted for the boondoggle Whitman budget that got this state in a mess in the first place, begged Bush to run for president, and has done nothing significant since becoming state senator and only awakens out of her slumber when an election comes around.

09/22/07 5:29 pm

Though Lautenberg may be


Though Lautenberg may be nearly 20 years older than Saxton, he seems many times more spry and mentally sharp than Saxton, who has done little of note recently besides repeat the same Bush mantra, "We're fighting Al Queda in Iraq and can never retreat from the battlefield" -- a fundamental misunderstanding of what is happening on the ground there and the civil war that exists between Shiites and Sunnis.

There's a typical lib argument: You don't agree with me so you must be stupid or senile. You guys are so enamored of your own intellects that you can't fathom that someone could have a different opinion.

09/22/07 7:05 pm

CAMBDENBEER1 You've had 1 Beer Too Many...


Presumably, you're a Republican; coming from the party of Senator Larry Craig a wisecrack like that is the lowest of blows.

If your crass remark is an example of typical Saxton campign strategy; Adler wins by 7 points.

Keep up the bad "work"! Please!

 

 

 

From Frederick Douglass

If there is no struggle there is no progress......Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will.

09/23/07 6:10 pm

NJ Wizard/Mountaintop


To clarify - beyond the State Legislature (whose vacancies are filled by someone of the same party through a county committee Special Election Convention), vacancies in the United States Senate are filled by the state's Governor (i.e. Corzine --> Menendez). But vacancies in the House are not filled by appointment; the seat remains vacant until a special election.

09/23/07 7:44 pm

Adler just seems like the


 More like next to the plaque that was stolen on the Rt. 295 rest stop, it has more trees for romping through.

09/24/07 10:09 pm

Ronald


Good to see you back, however, lets be real, right now in almost every poll done, Diane is well ahead of Dennison and will probably remain strong or gain points as it gets closer to November. Even today talking with people about the senate race, it is "Dennison Who?" Regardless of what you are saying, Diane is a safe and secure bet to win.

09/25/07 12:42 pm

Deadbeat Diane Strikes Again


Diane Allen first voted for asset monetization (Finance Structuring Act of 1999), and now is against it. Her hypocrisy has reached an epic proportion, and it may be one of the reasons, besides her gross neglect of her constituents in her district, of why she could lose in November.

 Now, Diane Allen has cowardly, sheepishly refused to debate Rich Dennison in a public forum. The voters deserve to have their public servants voice their views and defend them in a public forum, but Allen refuses to meet for any debate and runs from any forum where Dennison may be attending.

But, since she hasn't been responsive to voter needs since taking office and has enacted no meaningful reform at all, should we expect anything less from Allen?

09/25/07 10:27 pm

Let's get back to the subject at hand


If my aunt had testicles, she'd be my uncle. That pretty much sums up the thread. It is irrelevant. Saxton is running. He hosted a nice fundraiser this past weekend which brought in 400 of his closest friends despite the rain showers. So speculation on who would win between Diane and Adler is not worth a thread of its own. Nicky - you can't have it both ways. You can bemoan someone for saying something negative and turn around and call people names. You called me and Congressman Saxton names in another post. That is the epitome of hypocrisy.

09/26/07 9:16 am

MARTY THE LIAR AND FRAUD!


omg! Marty, you have lied yet again to the good posters here! Diane and the other GOP have ALL AGREED to debate the DEMS! Where are you getting your info?? Planet Ur-anus??? How do you know what she is doing or planning since you do not live in the 7th??? Your lies about Diane "Now, Diane Allen has cowardly, sheepishly refused to debate Rich Dennison in a public forum. The voters deserve to have their public servants voice their views and defend them in a public forum, but Allen refuses to meet for any debate and runs from any forum where Dennison may be attending" are exactly why people keep electing her over any dem challenger; because she does tow the line and all you dems can do is slander to take attention away from your ineptitude. First of all, Diane has a schedule of meeting and talking to people and just because little Richy stamps his feet and DEMANDS that she drop everything because little Richy wants what he wants when he wants it only makes him look more foolish! The only thing that so far is keeping me from switching my voter reg to GOP is that my entire family has been dem for like 70 plus years and fortunately, at least I know I can vote the person if I do not agree with my party!

09/26/07 11:29 am

Tsk Tsk


Your "ad hominem" attacks on Diane Allen are repugnant and further erode public discourse. Isn't that what you said to me about my comment about Henry Waxman opposed to capitalism? Tsk Tsk Marty.

09/26/07 11:37 am

Allen redux


The oc is right in that my previous comments towards Allen were a bit personal and therefore less effective. I will try not to call her "Deadbeat Diane" or, conversely, Saxton, "Congressman Deadweight"; it would be nice if the Republicans on here didn't refer to Sen. Lautenberg as "The Corpse," of course. Allen's policies and her inability to serve her constituents is what should be criticized rather than anything that could be perceived as a personal attack.

In regard to the issue of her not debating Dennison, despite what "Democrat" "pablos3" (the gig is up gopgal08) states, Allen ran away from a mini-debate/forum with Dennison at the Burlington County Times Editorial page offices, and she decided to run away again when she found out that Dennison was going to be at a light rail forum where she was speaking. I consider it to be of important that public servants meet their constituents and debate pertinent issues; it seems that Allen sees herself as above such moments of democracy in action, though.

09/26/07 8:23 pm

Once again Marty


Once again, Marty you cross the line of hypocrisy. You can't whine about others making personal attacks and then do it yourself. Not only is it hypocritical, it is childish. Congressman Deadweight? The guy who saved McGuire and Ft. Dix? The guy who helped pump in $500 million into the bases between getting construction funds, expansions at the bases and the new C-17s? The guy who has a stellar record of preserving critical habitat at the Jersey shore? The guy who is endorsed constantly by the unions, business groups, veterans, seniors, and enviros? That is deadweight? The only deadweight around here is the mass between your ears.

09/27/07 9:00 am

My apologies Martin


It is early in the morning and I didn't read your comments until after my first coffee. After re-reading, I realized that you were apologizing for the deadweight comment and not using it as a put down. And I will agree with you that referring to the duly elected senior Senator from NJ as a corpse is equally as wrong. I have never done it, nor would I. Having met the Senator before, I know he is a personable gentleman but I oppose his politics. However, I do believe his past criticisms of his opponents age are fair game. But the name calling is childish. Please accept my apology.

09/27/07 9:04 am

Martin0132346558799841218765418563225653


Can you spell IDIOT - THAT"S YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!

09/29/07 10:25 am