Could McNerney beat Garrett?

Would Dennis McNerney leaves the safe confines of Hackensack and the BCDO to challenge an incumbent with strong out-of-county support? McNerney is a virtual unknown outside of Bergen County, but would be a far more attractive candidate given his four countywide victories (2 for freeholder and 2 for county executive). Should McNerney lose, would it hurt his chances for re-election much the way it damaged County Executive Peter Shapiro in 1986 after getting trounced for governor in 1985 by Governor Tom Kean?

How about a REAL progressive candidate who is serious, skilled, supports civil rights and constitutional rights and strong, logical positions on the important things a Representative should be concerned with? Camille Abate has shown ALL of these virtues, and has already announced that she will run against Garrett. You can find her positions and background at http://www.abate08.com

With the backing of ferriero, mcnerney can hold his own in the fifth and run an aggressive media campaign against garrett. don't forget -- garrett's more conservative than the towns he represents. once someone like mcnerney has the money to tell NNJ about garrett's voting records, it could very well be a very tight race.

that race only happens if Ferriero wants it to happen. He seems to have enough on his plate now with the Legislative races, but after '07, I'd love to see him get involved.

With Hillary presumably carrying Bergen by a bunch (unless its against Rudy), '08 will likely be Ferriero's best shot to win that seat.

It may be important to ask..... Is freshman Congressman even a better job than Executive of the largest county in NJ?  yeah, yeah, its prestigous and all....but I'm not so sure that Bergen Exec isn't a better gig.

I'm not sure that it would hurt his chances. Unless he royally screws-up, McNerney can make up losses in northern bergen from towns in central and southern bergen.

While McNerney performed quite well in Northern Bergen, he did it in a great Democrat year against the hapless Caliguire campaign.

His 54 percent in the Fifth District is probably the Democrat high water mark against a lousy opponent. Garrett will be more of a challenge as the incumbent.

McNerney brings nothing to the table in terms of cutting into Garrett's geographical base outside Bergen.  The best case for Dems is that McNerney probably forces Garrett to ramp up his rather ordinary fundraising and/or requires the GOP to spend money here.

A Garrett-McNerney race would probably resemble Saxton vs. Bass-Levin in 2000, with a highly touted challenger raising a lot of money and having machine backing falling well short at the finish line.

Spending 2M+ to most probably lose a close race in a district that can't be held in 2010? Don't think so.

The seat is safe because Garrett's voting record actually is in tune with the district, only the lefties, pinkos and "mainstream" Democrats don't know it -- let alone the dying liberal wing of the Republican Party whom Todd Caliguire personifies.

Garrett frustrates them because his strength at the polls shows that voters like Republicans who actually vote like Republicans. It's interesting to note that Ferguson, who is a Democrat in all but name, is the most vulnerable member of the delegation followed by LoBiondo at this point, who is second to Ferguson in voting with the Democrats.

Garrett will have this seat as long as he wants, and thanks to geography, there is little even the nastiest redistricting plan could do to hurt him.  However, it is fun to see just how much the liberals in both parties hate this guy.  They hate him even more than they hate Steve Lonegan.

Since the Ninth district congressman is up next year, and is popular county-wide (having held county office as surrogate), he'll likely be helpful to mcnerney in bringing out the vote and creating some energy.