Early polls always have Lautenberg in trouble
By Wally EdgeU.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg has never amassed huge approval numbers in public opinion polls, but he’s never lost an election either.
As he approached his first re-election campaign, Lautenberg was at a 36%-21% approval rating in a February 1988 Eagleton Institute poll; voters said they would re-elect Lautenberg over a Republican by a 37%-24% margin. In that race, Lautenberg defeated retired Army General Peter Dawkins by a 54%-46% margin.
Six years later, Lautenberg had a 39%-39% approval rating in a February 1994 Eagleton poll. Just 28% of the voters said they would support his re-election, while 49% suggested it was time for a new U.S. Senator. But by Election Day, Lautenberg defeated Assembly Speaker Garabed “Chuck” Haytaian, 50%-47%.
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bland is good
However, I would also submit that some of those candidates he faced weren't the greatest. If Lautenberg had been challenged by Bob Franks, he probably would have lost.
Generally, it seems Frank Lautenberg's greatest asset is that he doesn't piss anyone off. He's pretty bland, and at the end of the day, that may be enough in Blue Jersey.
Frank is on borrowed time
Lautenberg historically has never been a big vote-getter because he lacks a regional base. He'll need to explain his Millicent Fenwick comments this time on the trail and he will face a Republican that will be young enough to be his son. It's time to retire, again. The Democrats have some great candidates and there is no need for this man to risk the seat with only 48 Democrats (excluding Lieberman & Sanders).
The Dawkins campaign ...
was the only contest I ever walked out on after commiting my support. He was a golden boy on paper - college football hero, Army General, etc. - but he was a basket case as a candidate. He never successfully defined himself on certain core issues and when he tried to do so, he came off as an equivocating empty suit. As they say in boxing, styles make fights. Lautenberg's opponents have certainly been favorable to him in this sense.