Ferguson, Lautenberg on GOP watch list
By Wally EdgeNational Republicans believe Mike Ferguson and Frank Lautenberg are potentially vulnerable in 2008, according to a White House Office of Political Affairs presentation made to GSA employees. The report was was posted on the House Oversight and Government Reform Comittee website. Lautenberg is the only Democratic Senator from a state John Kerry carried to be viewed by national Republicans are beatable, and Ferguson, who won 49% in his narrow re-election bid over Linda Stender, is one of seventeen Republican Congressmen on their "Priority Defense" list.
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Syndicate
Makes Sense...
Who will the GOP put up? Will Chris Smith run statewide?
Chris Smith would be a
Chris Smith would be a repeat of past elections cycles; a liberal against a liberal. Other than his pro-life and support of the military (most of the time, and particularly veterans) he is a big government, big spending, liberal. And, he won't risk his seniority in the House; he has become content in his post.
Republicans could use a strong candidate with excellent credentials and a history of being the biggest vote getter in his electoral races.... Mike Doherty. He is a viable candidate, and the starkest contrast in every respect, to Lautenberg. That would allow a race to focus on the issues and debating the policy positions rather than mudslinging and the failed Republican tactics of the past.
wishful thinking
Ferguson should have lost last time out, hopefully Stender can take him down in '08.
I think Lautenberg could be in trouble if Giuliani leads the GOP ticket and the NJGOP runs a young, vigorous candidate.
I hope Frank drops out before that and makes way for Rob Andrews to hold the seat for the D's.
Tom Kean Jr.
If Mike Ferguson is pushed out of the way by Republicans, they will immediately tap Tom Kean Jr. as his replacement. Kean wants to go to Washington and it's the common sense move to make. Having the last name Kean on top of potential of having Rudy at the top of the ticket would keep that seat in GOP hands for sure.
It's the common sense move since he would get killed in an '09 race for Governor against Corzine and his billions.
Corzine's Money
The incumbent's money is irrelevant. The only thing that counts is the challenger's money. That being said, Kean's problem is that he and Corzine agree on everything, which is why Kean is a weak candidate. Corzine will lose in 2009 if Republicans nominate a candidate who can present a contrast to him, not someone who is Corzine without the beard.
I Don't Think So
I wouldn't say that Kean and Corzine are the same by any means. Say what you want about Kean but Corzine is a flaming socialist.
To be honest with you, Kean's problem was more or less tactical. He was a rookie who made rookie mistakes. Namely, thinking that calling on Donald Rumsfeld to resign would score him points with people that never would've voted for him anyway in attempt to look like a trendy candidate. That's why I believe that if he's going to make it on a national platform, he should spend two or three terms in the House first and this is the perfect opportunity for him. No Democrat is ever going to defeat him for that seat and he'll hold on to it until he wants to try for a US Senate seat again.
I believe that Kean is more conservative than he lets on and he's got to learn to embrace it rather than fight it if he's going to be successful. Enlisting in the services of Bill Pascoe would be an excellent start. He could use a good lesson in Poli-Sci from Farber University, eh Bill?;-)
Ferguson, Lautenberg, Kean Jr.
Kean Jr. had a better chance at beating Menendez than he does against Lautenberg, should he be the eventual nominee; a second loss would probably doom his chances for ever being nominated for a statewide GOP race. Ferguson is now facing a candidate who will be funded by the DCCC and can point to his consistently pro-war positions as being counter to the anti-war perspective of most New Jerseyans. Let Ferguson run on his pro-war, social conservative record, and he will lose in '08 or '10 at the latest. I imagine that the national GOP, after the licking they took in '06, would be looking for races that would portend a change from blue-to-red, but Lautenberg is not really vulnerable, at least from my vantage. Dems are going to gain at least one senate seat (Colorado) in the next election, and Lautenberg should be supported by a plurality of voters in the next election, at least equal to Menendez's margin over Kean Jr.