January 30, 2008 - 12:11pm
Geography favors Lance in GOP primary
By Wally Edge
Tags: Mike Ferguson, Leonard Lance, Victor Sordillo, Martin Marks, Kelly Hatfield, Kate Whitman, Christopher Venis, NJ7, Tom Roughneen, New Jersey 7th
The race for the Republican nod to succeed Mike Ferguson in the seventh district is looking good for Leonard Lance – although that could change when he finally discloses how much money he has raised. The former Senate Minority Leader is the lone candidate from Hunterdon County, which has the largest percentage (38%) of Republican primary voters of the four counties in the seventh district. Lance will have the organization line in Hunterdon, where he appears exceedingly popular. If the field remains large – right now there are seven other candidates in the race – Lance’s plurality in Hunterdon alone should be enough to win the nomination.
In Somerset County, which produces about 29% of the GOP primary vote, there are five candidates: Kate Whitman, the daughter of the former Governor; Warren Mayor Victor Sordillo (who will officially enter the race tonight); Bridgewater Councilman Michael Hsing; Tom Roughneen, a former Prosecutor and Iraq war veteran; former Hillsborough Mayor Christopher Venis.
Union County, with 27% of the primary vote, has two candidates: Scotch Plains Mayor Martin Marks and former Summit Council President Kelly Hatfield.
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Same was true in 1996
Didn't help him then and he's no better a candidate today.
Marks has a
Marks has a substantial base in Union County. Most importantly, he is likely to be supported by many pro-life voters. Recall that Ferguson beat Tom Kean Jr. in a primary in this district.
Marks getting hurt
Lance has to be happy with all the minor candidates jumping in. Many of them will split the hardcore conservative bloc vote.
It probably hurts Marks more than Whitman. In a 3-way race, Marks would have had a better chance as the conservative choice and outsider.
Whitman's name i.d. and fundraising ability in a large field is a substantial asset.
I still think Lance is the front-runner right now. (unless he's only raised like $20k, then he's going to look pretty silly).
$$$
Lance didn't file with the FEC in time to report in tomorrow's filing. Now he doesn't have to tell anyone how much $$ he has until the March 31st filing. Why do that you may ask? Because he didn't fall asleep one night the horrible fundraiser he was for the Senate GOP (Karcher $5million vs. Beck $900,000 among others) and wake up the next morning a great fundraiser. Rumor has it he has raised less than 50K so far... Whitman raised over $200,000 and Marks lent himself $75,000. Lance may be running third or fourth in $$$.