December 31, 2007 - 2:35pm
Imaginary District: Bill Pascrell vs. Rodney Frelinghuysen
By Wally EdgeNew Jersey is expected to lose a House seat after the 2010 census. That means PolitickerNJ.com and our readers have three years to create different redistricting maps that offer a multitude of scenarios. Here's our first:
This new district pits two incumbent Congressmen, Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen and Democrat Bill Pascrell in a general election campaign. The district is 46% Morris County, 43% Passaic County, and 11% Essex County. Note that the district only includes about 40% of Paterson.
Who wins?
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You're Really Bad At This Aren't You?
The Democratic candidate only carries Paterson, Clifton, Montclair, Victory Gardens and Morristown. Not very suspenseful.
Which wards of Silk City?
There are some quasi-suburban areas that could swing GOP. Also depends upon changes in the national disposition of Hispanic voters.
George Ajjan
Ex-Congressmen Frelinghuysen?
So, the redistricting of 2012 may cause Rod Frelinghuysen to leave Congress.
Let's think about that for a moment... ...mmm, I'm so happy!
It's nice to think about nice things (no more Frelinghuysen - that would be so cool).
Let's all join together and make Frelinghuysen's early departure a reality (rather than just a whole lot of chit-chat).
Easy R win
This district is a giveaway to the Rs. Even assuming that Pascrell wins Clifton and Paterson (part), he will lose in Wayne, Morris County and all of those Essex County towns. This just pushes Rodney east rather than be a Morris centric district. Unless Pascrell retires and the Ds are asleep at the redistricting vote this is not goinfg to happen.
The 8th and 9th are going to mashed together and the fringe towns will be doled out to the remaining districts (i.e. Livingston to Rodney, West Orange to Payne). The real battle is between Hudson, Bergen and Essex as to these towns and who gets them.
This is a conservative seat.
Especially if the Paterson part is Wards 2 and 6. Rodney is probably the weakest Republican to run in this very Catholic district.
What happens to the 5th in this senario?
Would rothman take up all of Bergen since geographicly west milford wouldn't touch any of Bergen county at all.
Calling George Ajjan
I remember you ran an aggressive race in 04 but you didn't have enough of a GOP base and you were taken down by Bush's views versus your own. If the mapmakers give such a district, this is yours.
I believe Pascrell claims to live in the 3rd Ward. Would that "fit" in this district?
I could see where Somerset, east Morris, upper Passaic and the parts of Bergen in 40 end up as a district, thus giving Garrett a pass on a primary challenge as he gets western Morris and Hunterdon.
hmmm.... Its possible.
Interesting map.
I think if we lose one, the powers will draw a D vs. R incumbents race, rather than a D v. D incumbent race. (no chance of a R v. R race)
If Stender wins, it will be her versus Frelinghuysen.
If the GOP wins (Lance?), it will be him versus Holt.
Imaginary district
If Lance wins its Lance vs. Frelinghuysen. Otherwise can it be anything other than Frelinghuysen vs. Garrett?
Pascrell v. Payne
I could see this happening to satisfy the VRA (with 2010 pop estimates):
Clifton (part) 26,000 Haledon 8,310 Paterson 150,327 Prospect Park 5,489 West Paterson 11,400 Total Passaic County: 201,526
City of Orange 30,680 East Orange 66,453 Glen Ridge 6,543 Irvington 55,895 Maplewood 21,896 Montclair 35,785 Newark (South, Central, West Ward parts): 178,000, South Orange 15,887, West Orange 42,188 Total Essex County: 453,327
Hillside Township (Union County):21,467
Jersey City (Ward F area) (Hudson County):49,000
This would mean Passaic, Clifton and Bloomfield, all increasingly Latino, would be in Albio Sires' district.
You forgot about Dover
Dover would go Dem most likely as well, unfortunately !! I guess it will take more time for folks to learn that the Dem machine is not really their friend, it only keeps them hostages of the big government system.