The question seems to come up every two years: is incumbent 5th District Rep. E. Scott Garrett vulnerable to a Democratic challenge?
This year is no exception.
Challengers during Garrett’s first three campaigns thought they had a good shot, but he managed to beat them by double digit margins each time – even if those margins have narrowed each time.
But both of the Democrats vying to take him on say that this time is different, and both have released internal polls that they say proves it.
The frontrunner in the Democratic race, blind rabbi/psychologist Dennis Shulman, reported today that he has raised $125,000 last quarter and has $245,500 cash-on-hand. That's a slowdown from his previous quarter of fundraising, but Shulman is ahead of any of Garrett's previous Democratic challengers: Paul Stuart Aronsohn, Dorothea Wolfe or Anne Sumers.
Shulman is not far behind Garrett in fundraising. Last quarter the incumbent raised 192,859.50, and he has 457,521.36 cash-on-hand.
Shulman released the results of an internal poll yesterday that his campaign says shows Garrett with anemic support in the district, which is made up of Bergen, Sussex, Passaic and Warren Counties.
The poll, which surveyed 400 likely voters in the district earlier this month and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent, found that only 30 percent of respondents could identify Garrett as their Congressman.
Of those familiar with Garrett, 32 percent gave him a positive approval rating, while 41 percent gave him a negative rating. Thirty-one percent of voters said they would definitely vote to reelect Garrett, while 34 percent said they would either definitely vote against him or at least consider someone else. Thirty-five percent said they were uncertain of how they'd vote.
The poll also surveyed voters' opinions on President Bush, who only garnered an approval rating of 22%. While questions about the unpopular president could potentially color how voters see their Congressman from the same party (the poll didn't ask about John McCain), pollster Margie Omero said that the questions were shuffled so that questions about Bush were not always asked before questions about Garrett.
"What's different from previous cycles is how poorly Garrett does with his own base and how much people want a change from Bush's policies," said Omero. "The fact is that Bush's numbers are atrocious, not just bad, considering Republican leanings in the district."
Going a step further, Omero said Garrett is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.
"(Garrett's) reelect numbers are lower than anyone else's who have been released this cycle," she said.
Indeed, sources say that one of the three major Washington, D.C. based ranking firms plans to move the district's rank from safe Republican to leans Republican, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has publicly taken notice of Shulman's campaign, even if they haven't offered any monetary support (the DCCC does not get involved in primary campaigns).
While Shulman's poll did conduct a head-to-head match-up between Garrett and Shulman, the campaign did not release those results.
To National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokeswoman Julie Shutley, those are the numbers that really count.
"I thought that one thing that stands up that's the most telling is that they didn't include the head to head numbers. I think that's something that was obviously asked and purposely left out," she said. "It seems to me that's the best indication of where a challenger stands against an incumbent."
Camille Abate, who faces Shulman in the primary, has garnered some labor support but is trailing in fundraising. She'll report about $64,000 raised last quarter and about $100,000 cash-on-hand.
A campaign-issued press release claimed that she "enjoys a significant advantage over her opponents in the June 3 Democratic primary and in November's general election.
The pollster read respondents bios of Abate and one of Shulman - both positive – and then asked voters who they would prefer. After hearing the bios, 39% of respondents chose Abate and 27% picked Shulman.
The survey, conducted by Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, also claimed that Abate led Garrett 47%-32% (after respondents were read Abate's bio).
"Campaigns release these memos in order to advertise their candidate, not to give the voters information," said Fairleigh Dickinson University pollster and political science professor Peter Woolley.
Indeed, Woolley was skeptical of both polls' findings.
"When (Abate) says she moves into a lead over Garrett, she points out first that 'after voters hear a basic biographical profile of Abate, she moves into a lead," he sad. "This is just not how public polls are generally conducted, and it certainly doesn't happen in the voting booth either."
Garrett's name recognition, Wooley said, isn't uncommonly low for House members if respondents are asked just to name their Congressman.
"It's a different thing to say have you ever heard of Scott Garrett," he said. "You're going to get a very different level of response when you give the name and ask people have they ever heard of him - and that's really the more standard way of doing it."
As far as those who would consider voting for a new candidate, Woolley said that, even in economic boom times, people will often say they'll vote for change.
"You've got to ask yourself at some point: if Garrett is so vulnerable, why aren't there bigger-name Democrats getting into race?" he said.
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Typical Push Polls
Like the one Anne Sumers released in 2002 that claimed she was "within two points" of Garrett.
Libs are dreaming
I love to see the Dems wasting money on this race. They could spend $5 Million and still lose it in a landslide.
You Are Irrelevant - IV
If you take into consideration that they are competing to be the Democrat nominee against Scott Garrett, then here is how a more realistic article would have been written:
Irrelevants Insist That Garrett Is Vulnerable by Matt Friedman
The question seems to come up every two years: "Is incumbent 5th District Rep. Scott Garrett vulnerable to an Irrelevant challenge?"
Both of the Irrelevants vying to take him on say yes and both have released Irrelevant polls that they say proves it.
Sources say that the Irrelevant Congressional Campaign Committee has publicly taken an interest in Irrelevant's campaign, even if they will not offer any monetary support.
Irrelevant, who faces Irrelevant in the primary, has garnered some support but is trailing in fundraising. An Irrelevant campaign press release claimed that Irrelevant enjoys a significant advantage in the June 3 Irrelevant primary.
In the Irrelevant poll, the people were read bios of Irrelevant and Irrelevant - both positive - and then asked voters who they would prefer. After hearing the bios, 39% of respondents chose Irrelevant and 27% picked Irrelevant.
Fairleigh Ridiculous University pollster and political science professor Peter Woolley said, "You've got to ask yourself at some point: if Garrett is so vulnerable, why aren't there bigger-name Irrelevants getting into race?"
More of the Same, Volume IV
here we go again... Democrat candidate (name here) publicizes push poll declaring that Scott Garrett is "vulnerable." PoliticsNJ (or whatever this site is called) publishes release. Reasonable folks post how this is nonsense given leanings of district and quality of representative.
Not even most rabid lefties on this site give credence to these challengers. Yes, it is legitimate that Democrat officeholders in the 5th District are taking a pass.
The more things change...
Get Rid of Garrett
I don't care if its hype or not.
New Jersey needs to get rid of this clown ASAP to send a clear message that we're sick of what fiscal and non-fiscal conservatives are doing to our country. Before we get more of the same junk coming out of the White House under McBush and his cronies in 2008-2012, we need to dump Garrett.
Who votes for this clown anyway?
Mark...
Apparently the voters in his district vote for him. CONSERVATIVES for for him. I suppose the majority of voters in the 5th are "clowns" as well? He is quite the good Congressman in MANY respects. Sorry he's not in favor of 80% tax rates, which I wouldn't be surprised if you were. And to draw comparisons to him and Bush is foolish. He may be for the war, but Garrett is MUCH more conservative than Bush ever was. Garrett will win the election handily, and conservatives will rejoice, much to your chagrin.
Garrett is Conservative, not New Jersey Conservative
Scott Garrett is excellent at giving lip service to his constituents, especially regarding taxation, but he does little to actually do any good. He continually introduces legislation to reduce taxes, which could not even be passed by a Republican controlled Congress, while simultaneously voting for increased spending in Iraq, which does nothing more than increase our budget deficit and international debt. Residents of the Fifth District oppose the war and support fiscal responsibility, and Scott Garrett is a pro-war wasteful spender.
More importantly, his views on social issues are completely out of step with his constituents. In one of the best-educated districts in the country, he supports teaching Creationism in school to pander to the higher-ups of the Republican party in Washington.
The Democratic Party as a whole is more excited and better supported in this election than they have been in a long time because of the Presidential race and I think that that is going to translate into higher Democratic turnout in November. This year's election is the best opportunity that Dems have had in decades to retake the Fifth District.
In the foxhole with Garrett
Garrett's office is arguably the most responsive I've ever seen when it comes to providing constituent services. As one of those whom Garrett represents, I can personally attest to the fact he and his staff go well beyond the call of duty. He has my vote and many others I know because he is there for us when we need him. He helped me through a very difficult time when the government was unconscionably violating the rights of one of my loved ones. He never backed down and went to the mat for us. I may not always agree with him, but I do know that he will always fight for me and my family. Thanks Congressman Garrett.
To Martin Two
Don't you expect that another Congressman would be just as responsive, as well as represent your political views on the House floor?
I am also one of Garrett's constituents, and while I'm sure that he would go to bat for me if I called on him for a specific issue, as any public servant should, I see from his voting record that day-in and day-out, he fails to support my interests in Congress.
It is time for the Fifth District to be represented by a Congressman who will cut military spending, balance the budget, and work towards paying off our national debt, rather than one who will vote for wasteful spending and make empty promises of tax cuts he can't afford.
Responsiveness
Senator Lautenberg's office spent a grand total of 53 seconds on the phone with me. Menendez's office never bothered to get back to me at all (Bob was on a junket at the time).
I have a broader point of reference than most on this site as I was in politics for nearly two decades. In many instances, I was the one who was called upon to make things happen in response to constituent requests. Garrett and his office were nothing short of exemplary. Not every Congressman would extend him or herself like Scott Garrett did. I will take a representative with whom I agree 80% of the time over one with whom I agree 100% of the time who doesn't have the personal dedication to serve his constituents without reservation.
Mark of Ignorance
Garrett stood up to the Bush spending machine and the George Soros sell the Dollar short campaign. Mark and the Dems want to flood NJ with Illegals and tax the rest of us accross the Mason Dixon line
If you were in politics for twenty years...
You should be able to understand why a Congressman who only serves one District would be more responsive than a Senator who serves a whole state, right? Your point might be meaningful if we were discussing a Senatorial race where Garrett were a candidate, but we aren't.
I live in a town which was redistricted in 2000, and when I was represented by Steve Rothman, he was equally helpful and responsive when I called upon him. Other Representatives from other Districts who I have dealt with, even though I wasn't a constituent of theirs, were happy to help when they could.
I expect that whoever is the Democratic nominee, they will be equally responsive to their constituents' needs, and will better represent their interests in Congress.
To Bergenite
When you say "Stood up to the Bush spending machine," are you referring to his consistent record of voting FOR Bush-supported appropriations?
Able to understand
My point of reference in these matters is fairly well established. And I did indeed ask for help from other Reps as this was a matter of federal jurisdiction. They were not even remotely as responsive as Garrett. And I expect far better from my Senators than I received in terms of consideration, regardless of whether they represent an entire state as opposed to a legislative district. In fact, I specified both Bob and Frank's responses to avoid applying equal expectations to two wholly different offices. Do you think 53 seconds and no response at all represent a satisfactory level of legislative service? You should understand this is a personal matter with far more to it than I feel appropriate to post on this site. Suffice it to say I'm very pleased with Garrett's actions on my behalf and will vote for him this November.
Moreover, if Steve Rothman was helpful to you, I give him credit although his politics differ from mine. Sadly, you hold such ideological hatred toward Garrett that you can't even give him credit for doing something decent.
Of course I give him credit
Whatever your personal matter was that Rep. Garrett helped you with, I will gladly concede that he was helpful to you, but I will not outwardly praise a man for doing what he was elected to: aid his constituents. I'm sure that not all elected officials are as responsive as Garrett, but I have yet to meet any of them.
As for quoting me, feel free to, but make sure that you do it properly. I expect that any Representative in Congress would, as they should, help their constituents when needed. I'm sure that some do not, but I'm also sure that Dennis Shulman or Camille Abate would.
academic exercise
Shulman and Abate are not going to Congress from the 5th District, as currently constituted.
Demography is destiny in politics. Democrats have little -- if no -- chance to win here. If they did, a higher grade Dem candidate (i.e., McNerney) might give it a go. Even the DCCC isn't talking up this race.
It's a bonus that the district has a great representative in Scott Garrett.
Arnie..
I agree with your sentiment. I'd suspect that a much higher profile group of candidates would take on Garrett if the DCCC really thought they could take that seat. I would also expect to see the kind of financial committment to the 5th District race that marquee Dem candidates are getting in the 3rd and 7th District races. That obviously has not happend here.
Regardless, if Democrats couldn't take out Garrett in '04 with an incredibly-unpopular Bush at the top of the ticket and '06 when anti-Republican sentiment was running wild, why would Democrats think they'd have a chance now?
I'm not saying Garrett doesn't have his shortcomings - he does - but he's far from being the wounded animal they depict here.
As the campaign heats up, I believe it will ultimately work out in Garrett's favor:
-Bush is not running; McCain will be at the top of the ticket and he has proven to be popular enough in New Jersey. And while he's probably NOT popular enough to win the entire state, he's certainly popular in suburban-heavy North Bergen (not to mention North Passaic and Sussex Counties).
-The Democratic lead Congress has an approval ratings in the 20s - it may not be as widely reported as Bush's low-30s approval rating, but still a fact that almost nothing has gotten accomplished by this Congress.
-Infighting among Democrats on a state and national level are creating a lot of bad sentiment in the Party. We have to see if the bad sentiments in a Lautenberg/Andrews pimary (a real north v. south fight) will shake things up. But more than that seeing as Norcross's reach has now extended into Ferriero's backyard in Bergen County to aid Loretta Weinberg, there may more angles for him to exploit as the race heats up.
-The War in Iraq is still an issue, but seems to no longer be front & center as it was in the past - we don't seem to hear as much negative news coming out of there as in '06 - and will proabably play a much lesser role in this election.
-The economy will arguably be more of an issue now that we seem to be heading into a "recession" - but the high property taxes, rising unemployment rate, and overall economic dis-satisfaction will probably not play well when mixed with Dem Presidential candidates continually talking of raising taxes and rolling back tax cuts. North Bergen is a pretty affulent area - and even affluent moderates like to hold onto their money longer; not sure if that message will play depending on how Shulman or Abate play it.
It's obviously not a slam dunk case, but honestly, it seems to me that the case aganist Garrett was much stronger in the past.
Just my two cents for what it's worth...
Veritas vos Liberabit
"Collecting more taxes than absolutely necessary is legalized robbery." - Calvin Coolidge
Hey RonReagan
How nice to see you understand American politics so well that you're certain the Dems could spend "5 million on this race and lose it in (sic) a landslide." I bet that makes you feel like a real hardcore conservative to say that, eh? Feeling your red-state oats, are you? The proof of this particular pudding is in the opening article, which declares less than 30% of respondents could identify Garrett as their Congressman. That's pathetic, even for semi-rural Jersey.
This entire debate is more evidence that the two-party system does more harm than good. Name-calling and tug-of-war cannot sustain a viable political system. The only reason hyper-libs vote Dem is because at least that party PRETENDS to listen to what we have to say.