Dedicated Reds never tire of pointing out that communism never failed, because it was never tried. No country ever made the product pure enough. It would succeed, they aver – utterly without evidence – if only truly implemented.
Similarly, when considering the New Deal – which everyone now admits to be a massive economic failure – the American Left contends that its somewhat softer leftism – massive governmental spending, huge deficits, tremendous debt – didn’t truly fail, because it wasn’t tried: the spending, deficits, and borrowing weren’t massive enough.
Let’s be clear: there is no real world evidence – that’s NONE – that a tremendous expansion of government will produce ANY economic benefit.
What its advocates hope it produce is a leftist utopia, in which all the things they’ve pined for over the years – massive expansion of entitlements and social spending, centralized control over health care, etc. – comes into being. As Rahm Emanuel noted, "rule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste. They are opportunities to do big things." They might be wrong things, but they will be BIG!
None of the "economic stimulus" proposals have anything whatsoever to do with actually bringing about prosperity. They are, rather, designed to effect a huge concentration of power in DC. Because, as between a prosperous society, and a "fair" society, the Left always chooses the latter. Better, from the Left’s perspective, for all to be mired in poverty than to permit some – even a substantial majority – to prosper when others do not.
We KNOW what makes for prosperity, because it’s actually been tried, both in the US and around the world: freedom. The freer the economy, the greater the prosperity. Look at those nations with the greatest economic growth, and, without fail, they also provide the most economic freedom. Those which attempt to corral their economies in the name of "fairness" inevitably lag behind.
Governor Corzine muses that, with a huge federal stimulus bill, NJ could reap $6 billion in new funds. We could effect the same goal tomorrow, through the expedient of a substantial tax cut, directed squarely at "the wealthy", which is to say, people who live in New Jersey.
But the Left will not permit that. Indeed, President-elect Obama’s proposals are already running into Leftist objections because they include (gasp!) tax cuts (albeit profoundly silly, one-time gimmicky cuts). Bob Herbert encapsulates the Leftist manta perfectly when he writes:
"This is an emergency. There is one overriding mission for the incoming Obama administration when it comes to dealing with the economy, and that’s putting Americans back to work. Forget the G.O.P.’s mania for tax cuts. Forget, for the time being (but not forever), the ballooning budget deficits. Forget the feel-good but doomed-to-fail effort to play nice-nice with the rabid partisans of the right who were the ones most responsible for ruining the economy in the first place.
"Put the people back to work!"
By "back to work", he means massive governmental spending on huge governmental projects. He envisions creating not a single new private sector job, except such as may "trickle down" from governmental spending. Indeed, his Times colleague, Paul Krugman, worries that $2 trillion in deficits might not be big enough!!
Ah, what a difference an election or two makes!! Remember the quaint old days when the Democrats ran for office as fiscally prudent, green-eye-shade types, trumpeting their support for "pay as you go" federal programs, pledging that every single new spending program would be offset by cuts to another, or tax increases? That proved too Republican to last.
Contrary to the Leftist narrative, what got the economy into trouble was a combination of stupid governmental policy – Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the CRA – and creative, but profoundly dangerous, financial products, like Mortgage Backed Securities, which transformed what might have been a problem for overexposed lenders into a system wide failure. The economy did not contract because taxes are too low (a patently absurd assertion), because government is too small, or regulation too lax. Indeed, if massive spending, crazy borrowing, and huge deficits stimulate the economy, how is it that we are not awash in prosperity? Were not the past eight years the virtual definition of a governmental spending orgy?
King Canute famously commanded the tide to halt; curiously, the tide refused to listen. King Obama and his leftist allies stand upon the beach, commanding the economic ocean to obey. They’re going to get wet, and drown us all in the process.
Because while government has proved remarkably efficient at destroying economies, it cannot provide prosperity. Only private folks can do that. The New Deal and the Great Society – never mind the more expansive governmental economic intrusions prevalent in Europe – prove that Big Government NEVER provides prosperity. Put another way, government can very effectively contract the economic pie, but it never increases it.
Ronald Reagan proved that low taxes stimulate the economy, provide greater prosperity, and serve the common good, far better than any governmental controls. In a word, freedom works. This galls the Left mightily. Hence the objections by Senate Democrats to the prospect of tax cuts, which would let the people keep and spend more of their own money. Leftists truly believe they can spend the people’s money better than can the people themselves. While that represents extreme hubris – and has NEVER worked anywhere in the world – they remain stalwart.
But fear not. Like their somewhat redder colleagues, when the Obama-Democratic plan fails to produce economic recovery, Krugman, Herbert and their friends will complain that it would have worked, if only we’d spent a few trillion more. Like any religious dogma, leftist economic tenets are simply immune to rationale refutation: they accept them as a matter of faith, without regard to the actual evidence.
Like King Canute, the Left is about to get (yet another) demonstration on the limits of governmental power. Unlike that wise King, though, they’re unlikely to actually learn the lesson.
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conservative economics vs. reality
Though Asm. Carroll is essentially incorrect in his economic philosophy and assertions, his writing is generally quite good, and this piece is no exception.
To begin a rebuttal, I would say that anyone who views the New Deal as a failure is living the worst type of revisionist history possible. The New Deal got America out of the Great Depresssion, created millions of jobs, and also established safety nets for Americans, namely social security, that almost all agree was needed and beneficial.
Paul Krugman, a Nobel-Prizewinning economist, is not impervious to the deficit, created by a conservative Republican administration mind you; but he and many economists -- even king of pork Mitch McConnell says conservative-minded economists have been telling him another stimulus is needed -- agree that another government investment is needed to jumpstart the economy. Krugman's judgment is sound here.
Again, I'm amazed that conservatives look past Reagan's record, that is, the worst government corruption since Nixon and record budget deficits, and champion him as some kind of economic hawk. Revisionist history, indeed.
To initiate some type of dialogue here, though, I would say that I also share Carroll's concern about increased budget deficits, particularly since the current administration has left us nearly $1 trillion in the hole. What Carroll calls for is tax cuts, which would only further exacerbate the deficit; what many of us progressives are calling for is a large-scale government public works and infrastructure investment, which would also be deficit spending. But rolling back tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, particularly at a time of an off-the-books war and its concomitant spending, is not economic sanity; even a Republican senator, Voinovich, questioned this type of deficit-spending.
Adam Cohen recently wrote in the New York Times that, "At the start of the Bush administration, conservatives talked openly about rolling back the New Deal. They were trying to unravel the regulatory state, including protections for workers, consumers and investors." If Bush hadn't had weakened these regulations, from tax codes to the financial companies and groups Carroll mentioned, then constituent protections could have been in place, offshore accounts would become a thing of the past, and companies wouldn't be encouraged, through tax codes and other legal roads, to send jobs outside of America.
If a dumptruck driver keeps driving said truck into the same ditch, then doing the same strategy over and over again would be fallacious. The same can be said for "free market" economics, which has driven the American economy again and again, into a massive hole, a spriraling deficit. Deregulation is the enemy of the freedom, and free-market economics is a false ideal.
MartinOne...
First of all, MartinOne, while Carroll exaggerates when he says that "everyone knows the New Deal was a failure," there is a fair amount of economic research coming out now that is questioning whether the emperor has clothes or not when it comes to the New Deal's impact on the Depression. For example, try this:
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081027150030.aspx
Note the wage fixing, tax raises, price controls, etc. that would hamper natural market re-adjustment. Also, "argumentum ad populem" is a logical fallacy. Don't say "most people agree with me" as evidence ipso facto you're right.
Secondly, don't get me started on Paul Krugman. He did great work on free trade and comparative advantage, which is what he got his Nobel Prize for. Otherwise, he is a hack. In 2007, he was ranked almost as partisan for the left as Anne Coulter is for the right.
http://www.lyinginponds.com/2007/
Also, don't make the mistake of thinking Republican and conservative are synonymous. Carroll has written extensively on this concept in his blog: that Republicans can act quite liberally (see his take on Christie Whitman and even, yes, President Bush). Perhaps you should look back to the 90's when it was Republicans who were putting forth a balanced budget amendment (that the Democrats opposed and killed).
Tax cuts are better for the economy than spending:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/12/spending-and-tax-multipliers.html
$1 gov't spending = +$1 of GDP
$1 of tax cuts = +$3 of GDP
Don't you think that an individual will spend a dollar of his own money better than a government bureaucracy? You know all those "shovel ready" projects that the states have lined up for federal money to "stimulate"? Here are some gems that the US Confrence of Mayors have cooked up:
* a proposed "O'Malley Road Reconstruction" in Anchorage, Alaska, that will cost $30 million but provide 300 (count 'em!) jobs;
* a Gadsen, Alabama "Hoke Street Sidewalk Construction to serve new Department of Human Resources facility" that's a real steal at $150,000 but will take almost surviving members of the Allman Brothers Band off the public dole (at last!);
* Police Facility Solar Panels for Lake Havasu City, Arizona, for only $400,000 and 75 jobs;
* Stormwater Settlement Ponds for Beloit, Wisconsin for $1,428 million and five whole jobs, which will feed a family of four in the Badger State, especially if they only eat government cheese;
(All 800 pages here: http://usmayors.org/mainstreeteconomicrecovery/documents/mser-report-200..., link courtesy of Reason Magazine)
One last thing: please point out SPECIFICALLY where Bush "rolled back regulations." I love hearing people pontificate over perceived generalities when they are patently false. You are aware that Bush was the biggest regulator since Nixon, right? You are aware that Bush added more regulatory bureaucrats than Clinton, right (many, many times more)? You are aware that regulatory spending has gone up faster during Bush's terms than any other president, right? You aware that Bush signed Sarbanes-Oxley, right?
You have fun with that.
(PS - if you think that we were ever in a free market during the last 70 years, you're delusional)
The overriding reality is
The overriding reality is though FDR's New Deal did deliver temporary economy activity, in the long run it began the long slide into fiscal irresponsibility. Since then we have never paid the full predicted "interest" in the "investment" government made in all the social programs. Instead, we have become dependent upon borrowed money. Hence the looming and ultimately much more serious debt.
Likewise, an Obama stimulus plan will have the same effect...follow the same course. And a tax cut, in this instance, would be tantamount to more artificial, temporary government relief, becuase it will not and cannot be accompanied by the necessary spending reduction.
Here lies the rub. We can't spend our way out, because that has never worked and will hasten the fiscal demise that no one doubts is coming. And we can't simply resort to a private enterprise rebirth from a stark reduction of government, because government intervention in the economy is so broad and pervasive, that the correction would be so painful and abrupt that the economic recovery may never take place...certainly not in any timely fashion.
What we need, and will surely not get because the public will vote for any one who promises releif during what would be an extended period of personal challenge and pain, is a long term orchestrated return to a private economy and a reduction in the size, scope and depth of government in our lives that is immune from, inpenetrable from, impervious to political activity...a kind of long term contract with America that current generations will buy into for the sake of their successors, whom they are currently saddling with the debt of their dependence.
Good comments from both sides
Of course I agree substantially with Assemblyman Carroll, and completely with YoungNJ and cannot say it any better than he did.
Paul Krugman appeared this morning on CNBC to defend his recent article appearing in Rolling Stone magazine and was asked point blank whether or not the New Deal got the U.S. out of the Great Depression. I expected him to indicate an unconditional "yes"; however, he said no . . . that unemployment was cured by the U.S. entry in WWII. Apparently, Krugman doesn't yet understand that the U.S. entry into WWII was just another Rooseveltian plan to end unemployment, and was a then- unpublished and sureptitious part of the Underground New Deal.
That part of the New Deal worked (cured high unemployment); however, real GNP levels didn't get restored until the early 50s.
what we need
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Like Rip Van Winkle
Carroll is like King Canute and Rip Van Winkle combined-- waking up after 8 years, as if Bush and GOP governance had never occurred, and commanding that unregulated markets regulate themselves to the benefit of all!
Substitute "dedicated conservatives" for "dedicated Reds" and "free market capitalism" for "communism", and you get an article that has some intellectual integrity.
While the ship is going down, Carroll seems to advocate praying to St. Milton Friedman.
Taking Carroll's own words:
Let's be clear: there is no real-world evidence -- that's NONE -- that a tremendous expansion of conservative economic ideology has produced ANY durable economic benefit.
Ask Lehman Brothers, CitiGroup, AIG, Bush, Paulson, Greenspan -- no, wait -- ask anybody but Carroll, KIng Canute and Rip Van Winkle!
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