March 7, 2008 - 12:01am

On the Merits

Discussing the vacuity of Barack Obama’s rhetoric, I find myself taken to task for ignoring the substance allegedly underlying it. Far from it. My initial post merely pointed out that Obama’s speeches convey essentially none of that substance. But don’t take my word for it; Hillary Clinton, too, laments the utter absence of specifics in her adversary’s public pronouncements. (She disagrees only incrementally with the policies Obama endorses) "I could make a big, ol’ speech ..." she mocks.

But give the devil his due: check out the candidate’s website, and investigate the substance of his proposals. Many of those mirror the vagueness of his speeches, but he presents enough specifics to get a good sense of the direction in which he wishes to take the country. Read.

And go running – screaming – into the night at the thought that a man proposing such nutty policies might actually be the President.

Start with trade. New Jersey exports more than $30 billion every year. But much of that would come to a screeching halt if Obama is serious about his protectionist trade policies. (The recent dust up with the Canadians, of all people, indicates he’s more cynical than sincere. Should he be elected, we should sincerely hope that he doesn’t actually believe the nonsense he spouts on the campaign trail.)

No serious economist doubts the benefits – to all parties – of free and open markets, but for New Jersey, which depends upon the vitality of its port, them threats to free trade are fightin’ words. Protectionist trade policies inevitably produce retaliation; Smoot-Hawley helped turn a relatively minor local economic burp into a world wide depression. Not only would Obama’s protectionist trade policies devastate New Jersey, they would threaten worldwide economic catastrophe.

Similarly, consider Obama’s co-sponsorship of the deliciously named "Patriot Employer Act". To qualify as a "patriot", such an employer must pay at least 60% of its employees health care costs, hire at least as many domestic employees as it does foreign, welcome union organizing efforts, provide a pension plan, and offer salaries not less than the poverty level (a cute trick, since said level is defined by family size). To finance a paltry 1% credit for such "patriotic" employers, Obama would levy a massive tax upon foreign subsidiaries of US companies.

Couple this demonstration of economic illiteracy with Obama’s thoughts on taxes (massively increase them, but don’t specify which ones or how much) and one wonders: apparently, our prospective President believes that the American government can keep capital domestic by imposing confiscatory taxes. Makes perfect sense. If you’re Lewis Carroll.

Obama displays a puppy-like faith in the beneficence of government; his website reads like a candy-store, liberal wish-list of governmental spending programs. $1000 for every working family (paid for ... how?) Double spending on basic research; double energy research spending; "invest $150 billion in "clean energy’; make "investments" (aka massive governmental spending) on "education, training, and workplace skills", so as to create "high-wage jobs".

OK, let’s get this straight: the secret to creating "high wage jobs" lies in massively bloating governmental programs and imposing crushing taxes on the people and entities who will allegedly create said positions. Yup. That’ll work.

And the last time we had a "comprehensive national energy policy", the result was gas lines, natural gas shortages, and a multibillion dollar synfuels boondoggle.

Besides, one cannot take seriously an "energy policy" in which the word "nuclear" does not appear.

Or take this gem:

"The Obama comprehensive energy independence and climate change plan will invest in America's highly-skilled manufacturing workforce and manufacturing centers to ensure that American workers have the skills and tools they need to pioneer the first wave of green technologies that will be in high demand throughout the world. Obama will also provide assistance to the domestic auto industry to ensure that new fuel-efficient vehicles are built by American workers."

And here you were thinking that his speeches were models of studied ambiguity.

If so-called "green technologies" will be in high demand throughout the world, the correct governmental policy is to get its fat tuchus out of the way; the private sector will be happy to make the investments necessary to make money. And what does "provide assistance" mean? Just what we need; a farm subsidy analog for the auto industry.

Remember Japan, Inc.? Government picked economic winners and directed investment accordingly. Oh, the media paeans resounded: such public-private partnerships would eat America’s comparative laissez faire lunch.

It’s taken the Japanese decades to recover from that foolishness. Obama would lead us down precisely the same dead end road.

Estimates of the costs of Obama’s promises run as high as $800 BILLION. He’s conspicuously vague about how to pay for it, except by taxing "the rich" – aka people who live in New Jersey – and corporations.

America’s corporate tax rate is already among the highest in the world, at 35%. Contrary to Obama’s proposals, American policy should be to move in precisely the opposite direction.

Ireland, for example and by comparison, imposes a paltry 12.5% rate on general corporate taxes. (25% on passive income) Unsurprisingly, the Irish economy booms along – about 5% per annum, or double the rate for the continent. Instead of emulating the Swedes, or the failed Japanese industrial policy model, we should follow the Irish example, and cut corporate tax rates substantially.

On the merits, then, Obama’s economic policies – to the extent he’s serious about them – would be disastrous for NJ. Indeed, having referred to his website and considered his proposals, his vacuous speeches look better all the time.

While it remains unclear whom the Democrats will nominate, Obama’s campaign has already achieved something historic, a seemingly impossible feat: it makes Hillary look like a sober, responsible adult by comparison.

Comments

MPC


just seems to get it and I wish the brainwashed masses would wake up and see the light.

03/07/08 8:41 pm

Obama, Freemarketers, and McCain (Oh My) (Part 1)


First, apologies to Assemblyman Carroll for some rather vitriolic, heated attacks on him in his forum. Sticking with the issues and their substance is the best method of argumentation.

Carroll argues that Obama's economic policies would hurt American companies and creater further economic stagnation, wage decreases, and job loss. This is hardly the case, as protectionism, not a pure free-market, is what is called for in this difficult economic climate. Despite the American workforce being well trained and flexible to changing economic denominators, our jobs keep being outsourced to cheaper labor countries. The answer to this is not, as seemingly is implied, to decrease wages in the U.S.; in fact, wages have not kept up with the cost of living increases and need increases, not decreases. Protectionism, that is, the rewarding of companies that in turn reward the American worker and promote their well-being (unions, health care benefits, etc.), should be encouraged, not discouraged. And the question of whether a) protecting American jobs or b) outsourcing them, giving companies rewards for offshore accounts, and decreasing worker rights is good for this country is a debate that we Democrats welcome. There is good reason why Sherrod Brown, Ted Strickland, and others (Franken?) are being elected in the hardest hit economies of the U.S., so protectionism is clearly gaining strength in our culture and in politics.

03/14/08 8:37 am

Obama, Freemarketers, and McCain (Oh My!), Part II


Dean Baker, writing in “Bailout Time: Where are the Free Marketers?” at the Talking Points Memo, mentions that now that Wall St. is hurting – something that we working Americans have felt for months, if not years – freemarketers can’t move quickly enough to have the government intervene: “It looks like the conservatives are working overtime to prove me right. They are rushing to the halls of Congress and the Fed demanding that the government rescue them from their own stupidity.” Baker’s larger argument is that both liberals and conservatives indeed want the government to intervene in the economy; this difference is that “conservatives want the government to intervene to redistribute income upward, while progressives want the redistribution to support greater equality.” Instead of giving tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans, as our president has done, while our economy spirals further into deficit-ridden projections, we need a balanced approach to government intervention, one that achieves as much a post-Keynesian “free-market” as possible without sacrificing American jobs and the thrust of financial markets and investments towards the lower and middle classes, too – something we feel all too keenly here in New Jersey. 

At a January debate, Sen. McCain said, rather blindly, that “I don’t believe we’re headed into a recession…I believe the fundamentals of this economy are strong and I believe they will remain strong.” This, of course, comes from a person who has admitted that economics is not his area of expertise: ““The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should.” Of course, McCain will be surrounded by a cadre of Bush-centered economic advisers, should he be elected (I don’t see him winning in November, but I could be wrong), and they would dictate economic policy to this neophyte. We know what to expect because the last seven years have shown us the Republican philosophy on the economy: borrow-and-spend to the tune of a nearly $8 trillion deficit, invest in foreign economies while the domestic economy tanks, and provide tax incentives and breaks to the wealthiest Americans, oil companies, and other such invested groups. The McCain economy would be bad for manufacturing in this country because it would reward companies for offshoring and outsourcing, it would be outright hostile to worker’s rights and labor, and it would provide tax breaks to companies rather than directly to the American people (trickle-down economics, anyone?).

 Meanwhile, Obama’s economic policies, rather than make the public sector more bloated, would make the health care industry more competitive and efficient and, most important, save the American worker money in the long run. Unlike Carroll’s post claims, Obama indeed has clarified what his goals were for economic stimulus and how he would pay for it (The sticking point for Carroll, seemingly, is not that he is against direct economic stimulus given to taxpayers or green technology jobs, but instead how to pay for them). An Associated Press article from yesterday states that “Obama has proposed an array of subsidies for higher education, health care and other costs hitting middle-class families. He said he believes he can pay for such plans by closing tax loopholes, placing a new tax on carbon emissions, phasing out the Iraq war and ending the Bush tax cuts for the nation's highest earners.” The resource-depleting and unnecessary Iraq War is now costing us nearly $12 billion/week, thus contributing to the oncoming recession. Obama is right that carbon emissions must be capped and regulated – another difference between us Democrats and the absurd magic-wand beliefs of conservatives that these industries will regulate themselves – and that tax loopholes that encourage offshoring and outsourcing must be eliminated. I am also relieved to hear Obama speak of paying back our increasing national debt and the Democratic emphasis on pay-as-you-go proposals. 

Harold Meyerson of The Washington Post gets it right when he claims that McCain-Republican economics is wrong when it has the wrong preferences: “Tax breaks to businesses must be conditioned on their using those funds to stimulate Cincinnati, not Shenzhen. And if we really wish to create good jobs at home, the kind of "mega-greening" projects that the Democrats are talking up are far more likely than across-the-board corporate tax cuts to deliver the goods.” Those green jobs and the new green economy would be better suited in the hands of Obama or Clinton rather than McCain, whose League of Conservation Voters rating recently went as low as 15 and who, while acknowledging global warming and the need for green jobs, doesn’t have the right answer to promote and sustain this new economy.

 

Finally, with all due respect to Carroll, I don’t trust economic advice from someone who has repeatedly voted against the best interest of the New Jersey worker, as yesterday Carroll voted against Paid Family Leave and who, to the best of my knowledge, has repeatedly voted against minimum wage increases. Obama’s economic proposals, and Democratic economic principles, are better suited for this country and its workers than McBush economics.

  Sources: 

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/10/bailout_time_where_are_the_fre/

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/18/mccain-economy/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080313/ap_on_el_pr/obama_mccain

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/22/AR2008012202618.html

  

03/14/08 9:36 am

Conservative mythology


1. "Free markets" As we have it now, the government gets its "tuchus out of the way" for corporations' free flow of labor, etc but a little old lady in Buffalo, NY isn't free to buy her prescription drugs from Mexico or Canada. The government puts its tuchus in the way when it serves its corporate masters, many of whom will not return their billions in bonuses and golden parachutes, leaving us to deal with the economic meltdown attributable to their exercised "freedom" to screw the nation.

2. "Deregulation"-- we see where that has taken us with Enron and, now, the current subprime debacle. If Main St. were as "deregulated" as Wall St, street crime would be rampant. When they take the cops off the beat on Wall St, it's conveniently called "deregulation." What has taken place is beyond Grand Larceny and Drunk Driving.

3. Government shouldn't subsidize "green" -- government investment in national defense programs like science education in the post-Sputnik era and JFK's Moonshot investment, made it possible for Reagan to negotiate from technological strength. The idea that government is the problem is a canard. Bad government is the problem -- and the Bush Neocons have apparently decided to show us how bad that can be.

4. Tax Policy -- since when is fighting a World War (the war on terror is a fight for western civilization and our nation?) to be fought and financed by our kids and grandkids? We've had deregulation and tax cuts for the zillionaires. And now we see where international adventurism, profligate war spending, irresponsible borrowing and the "stimulus" of tax cut/deregulation has gotten us.

 

"As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their hearts desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

--HL Mencken, The Baltimore Evening Sun, July 26, 1920

 

03/15/08 11:10 am

In response...


For MartinOne’s comments indicting MPC’s legislative record, since when was the Paid Family Leave and minimum wage increase *really* going to help New Jersey’s floundering economy?

While we were, in past years, usually better-than-average, our unemployment rate just met the national average (4.8%), and in January alone, we lost 8,000 private sector jobs. Why? Because it’s getting too difficult to run a business in New Jersey, and, when given the chance, companies will seize the opportunity to hop over to Pennsylvania or Connecticut, et al. My dad's job is relocating from NJ to Conn. in a few months.

New Jersey has the second-worst business-tax friendly environment. Now, remind me again how encouraging a job exodus will help the New Jersey worker?

Take New Jersey as a microcosm for the United States economy. Shove more of an onus on business and you’ll see how they run.

 

To Bodoc:

It’s true. The Bush administration has failed us—on the promise that, on the campaign trail for the 2000 election, he said that “My opponent trusts government. I trust you.”

And then we got a 23.7 percent increase in the federal budget, government intrusions to our privacy (for the greater good, of course), and an endless war in a foreign land. Wait… a Republican won these last two elections?

The few things his administration got right, however, were the Bush Tax Cuts. Yes, people like to go on the easy, liberal designation (and when do they not play the name-game?) that it was a “cut for the rich.” Looking at the numbers myself, it eased taxation for the middle class. So stop perpetuating the stereotype that it was a cut “for the zillionaires.” That’s a good us-and-them mentality for you.

Oh, as a sidenote, Bush’s tax cut was less of a percent of the federal budget than President Kennedy’s cut in the 1960s, who also did not decrease spending in turn.

Deregulation – yes, deregulation caused Enron, and the government did 9/11. Seriously, though, Enron broke the law by using loopholes to hide their losses from the market community. When the Securities Exchange Commission investigated, then the stock price fell out of fear. What Enron proved is that we need more open-air business policies, not a government leash as I believe you were implying.

As for the quote you chose, I’m surprised, because it could easily describe Obama (or any other sort of populist president, really). In fact, the quote is clearly meant as a jab to the tyranny of the majority and the danger of giving the executive branch too much power of the others (which is what we've clearly done in the last century... look at CNN's political coverage and you'll see what I mean, by the looks of it, only three people are running for public office out of the whole United States). Your quote says we need a return to constitutionality to protect us from and take the power away from these "morons" which we've elected.

03/30/08 1:16 pm

In response... 2


Furthermore, MartinOne, when you lay down the choice of protecting the American worker or outsourcing more, you’re missing the fundamental reason why we are losing jobs… because it’s cheaper to hire overseas than in America.

I’m sure you understood this already. This process started in the 1960s and 70s with the de-industrialization of America. It was cheaper to hire factory workers out of Asia than it was to negotiate with the union bosses down “On the Waterfront.” Part of the reason why NJ cities are hurting so bad—at one point, remember, Camden, NJ, was the most productive port in the world. Granted, it was because of WWII wartime spending, but the point is there.

How about the Sunbelt Movement and the Right-to-Work Act? It’s when all the factories (that didn’t leave the states) when faced with the option of dealing with unions and not dealing with unions… opted to move South where there was little historical union presence. Not that I’m anti-union… collective bargaining is a tool of voluntary association that can negotiate wages—great when labor is being greatly undervalued, but such power lends itself to corruption and overreaching, etc. etc., just like any other throughout history.

MPC brought up the example of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff. Hopefully that will sounds familiar as well, and know that protectionism will often stoke the ire of those whom you are “protecting” yourself from, and it’s a two-way street.

03/30/08 1:17 pm

And now..."policy"


So, to the specifics: Specifically, Clinton and McCain's gas tax pander is typical of what passes for populist "policy" in Washington. It cannot work BECAUSE of free markets, which will merely redirect the lost tax money that went to domestic jobs repairing domestic infrastructre to Petro-terrorists and Exxon as the price adjusts back upward to its supply and demand level. Talk about cynical government elites: McCain and Clinton are the ones who disrespect the intelligence of the American People.

05/03/08 9:30 am