Musical chairs

The retirements of Congressmen Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson offers the potential for an interesting game of political musical chairs.

In District 3, if John Adler goes to Congress, look for Louis Greenwald to replace him in the State Senate.  That will open up a sixth district Assembly seat that Cherry Hill might claim, although that decision will be made by party leaders.  Most of the Cherry Hill Councilmembers are potential candidates, and one interesting replacement for Greenwald would be Councilwoman Shelley Adler, whose husband could be a Congressman.  This is a safe Democratic district, and legislators picked at a Special Election Convention would be virtual shoo-ins for the November 2009 elections.

Greenwald’s move to the Senate would also open up the Assembly Budget Committee chairmanship.  John Burzichelli is a possible candidate for that post.

The election of Diane Allen to Congress would open up a State Senate seat in the politically competitive seventh district.  Republicans would hold a Special Election Convention to replace Allen in January 2009 – Burlington County Sheriff Jean Stanfield and Freeholder Aubrey Fenton are possible candidates – and a Special Election would be held in November 2009 to fill the remaining 26 months of Allen’s term.

Of course, these scenarios would trigger more special elections for other offices – like contests for a vacant Cherry Hill Council seat (dual officeholding will be history by then) or Burlington County Freeholder. 

The district is clearly a Democratic-leaning one, and without Allen in the race, Democrats would have a good chance of picking up this Senate seat.  Six-term Assemblyman Herbert Conaway, who declined to challenge Allen three times, seems interested in moving up to the Senate – but South Jersey Democrats are less than enthralled with him, and could easily go in a different direction.  Look at Troy Singleton, a former top aide to Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts, as a potential candidate – either for the Senate or for Conaway’s Assembly seat.

Assemblyman Brian Rumpf is a possible candidate for Saxton’s House seat.  There are no shortage of Republican officeholders in Ocean County that would like to run for an open Assembly seat in the solidly Republican ninth district: Freeholders John Kelly, Gerald Little and John Bartlett, Berkeley Township Councilman Carmen Amato, Lacey Mayor Mark Dykoff,  Long Beach Mayor DiAnne Gove, Beachwood Councilman Ron Roma and Ocean County GOP Vice Chairwoman Barbara Lanuto.

In District 7, three legislators are looking at Ferguson’s seat in Congress: Democrat Linda Stender, and Republicans Leonard Lance and Peter Biondi.  None of these seats would be in play in the 2009 legislative elections.

A Stender victory opens up her 22nd district Assembly seat, and some Democrats suggest that Rahway might look to claim it – possibly with Union County Freeholder Rick Proctor as their candidate.  But that would mean Linden, Plainfield and Rahway would occupy the Senate and Assembly seats in this district – something that could cause a rift with suburban towns in Union and Somerset counties.  That could put Fanwood Mayor Colleen Mahr in contention for the seat, or former North Plainfield Council President Nathan Rudy, now the President of the Tri-County Red Cross. 

(And since this is New Jersey, where anything can happen: could former Governor James E. McGreevey, now a resident of Plainfield, stage a political comeback by running for the State Assembly?)

The leading candidate for Lance’s Senate seat is Michael Doherty, a four-term Assemblyman from Warren County.  Indeed, Republican sources suggest that Lance committed his support to Doherty last year, when Doherty was mulling a challenge to him in the 2007 GOP primary.  Doherty would have to run in a January 2009 Special Election Convention, and could face a competitor from the much-fractured Hunterdon County Republican organization, which has a substantial edge in a County Committee fight.  Look at Freeholder Matthew Holt, the grandson of the late U.S. Senator Clifford Case, as a potential Senate candidate – or for Doherty’s Assembly seat.  And of course, that could set off another internal fight for Holt’s Freeholder job.

If Peter Biondi were to go to Congress, look for Hillsborough to insist on keeping the sixteenth district Assembly seat.  Possible candidates include: former Somerset County Freeholder Kenneth Scherer, a Hillsborough resident who won 29% of the vote at a county convention for Kip Bateman’s Assembly seat last winter; Freeholders Jack Ciattarelli and Rick Fontana; Bridgewater Mayor Patricia Flannery.   

And Biondi’s departure from Trenton would open up his post as Assembly Minority Conference Leader – probably for Jon Bramnick, the current Minority Whip.

Finally, if Joseph Pennacchio winds up winning a seat in the United States Senate, look for Assemblyman-elect Jay Webber to move up to the State Senate seat Pennacchio won’t even assume until January.  Could three times be the charm for Larry Casha for Assembly?