Musical Chairs for Ferguson, Frelinghuysen and Garrett
By Robert TorricelliIt's the most contentious issue in politics. Every decade the state must redraw districts for the Congressional delegation. Friendships are lost and hours of productive time is squandered.
The tendency of the delegation and the redistricting commission has always been to approach the issue on a bipartisan basis. Both parties and all incumbents are accommodated to the fullest extent possible.
The question is, why? New Jersey is almost certain to lose a district. The current delegation is 7-6 Democratic. Republicans have lost every US Senate Race since 1972. They've lost the last two Gubernatorial campaigns. Democratic Presidential candidates have won every campaign since 1988. This is a Democratic State.
There's no reason for an evenly divided delegation unless the redistricting commission engineers it. Logic and fairness would argue that if New Jersey loses a seat it should be a Republican. The population losses are disproportionately in north Jersey. The solution is to put two north Jersey Republican Congressmen in the same district.
The matter is best settled by Republican primary voters. Some combination of Ferguson, Frelinghuysen and Garret would settle the matter. The conclusion would be a 7-5 delegation. That probably still over represents Republicans in the Congressional delegation but at least it’s closer to reality.
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Let's not jerry-rig the districts at all. Make a commitment to create the 6 or 7 geographically dense districts possible and let everyone fight it out.
The way they are drawn now may be fair to incumbents, or fair to the parties, but the districts are not uniform.
The 5th and 7th stretch the entire distance of the state! It's a joke. What do the ocean side and river sides of the districts have in common?
Make the districts easier for the Rep. to travel, the constituents to get to the offices, and geographically tight so they will be more demographically uniform.
Gotta be Ferguson
I think clearly it will be Ferguson who will be squeezed out. Garrett's area is pretty safe I would think.
More likely they'll add some of the Democratic pieces of Ferguson's district (parts of Middlesex and Union) to Pallone and Holt. Then add the leftovers in the Northern part to Frelinghuysen and Garrett.
Not clear if that will put his hometown in a D or R district, but residency has never stopped Fergie before!
Of course, Stender winning a re-match would nullify the above and put the Democrats in a real pickle!
Frelinghuysen should worry
Unless someone decides to retire, we'll probably see a Republican primary: either Garrett vs Frelinghuysen or Ferguson vs. Frelinghuysen. In that case, I think Mr. Frelinghuysen had better worry. The other two congressmen are much more in tune with the Republican rank-and-file than he is. Of course, the Democrats might seek to stack the merged district in Frelinghuysen's favor since he is in their camp more on certain issues.
redistricting
It surprises me, the notion that New Jersey might lose a Congressional seat; I had thought we were making steady gains in population. True, I was not happy living in North Plainfield with the new state districts after the 2000 census, but we seem to have an equitable remedy for any contested plans for new districts.