New Jersey Dems cozy up to Texas and Ohio

Obama supporters Senate President Richard Codey, left, and Hoboken Councilman Michael Russo

Mark Alexander assumed the familiar posture this week of a man with a phone in his hand making calls for presidential candidate Barack Obama. This time, however, the scenery was different, as he occupied unfamiliar territory on the other side of the Delaware River somewhere in a mid-western American state called Ohio, a rust-belt cousin of New Jersey.

"It’s raining," the former Jersey state director for the Obama campaign told PoltickerNJ.com in a 30-second conversation between calls, where Obama and his Democratic Party rival Sen. Hillary Clinton are competing today as well as in three other primary states: Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.

Dogfight or not tonight, for one of Alexander’s chief allies back here at home, Senate President Richard Codey (D-Essex), the numbers still add up in favor of Obama mounting the stage at the Democratic Convention in Denver come August.

"At the end of the day she can’t pick up enough delegates to win, so neither one gains a huge advantage in delegates today," Codey said of Clinton and Obama’s fang-bearing scramble for the 444 pledged and unpledged delegates among the four states: 228 in Texas, 161 in Ohio, 32 in Rhode Island and 23 in Vermont.

"If she wins Ohio and Texas, she will try to portray old man mo, but delegate-wise she’s wrong," said Codey of Clinton, who has 1,269 pledged and superdelegates to Obama’s combined 1,378. "In order to get the required delegates to push her past Obama, she has to beat him 60 to 40%, and it’s not going to happen. I ain’t saying the fat lady’s singing yet, but she’s buying the cigar."

Clinton faces a hard numbers slog not only from the vantage point of delegates, but also dollars, according to Dr. Brigid C. Harrison, professor of political science at Montclair State University.

"The likely scenario is a split," Harrison said of the presidential showdown in which Obama has won 11 straight primaries since Super Tuesday. "Sen. Clinton’s comments are that if it is a split tonight, she’ll stay in. While that shows wonderful intestinal fortitude, the question becomes how she’ll be able to do that with relatively limited funding. It will become increasingly difficult for her to raise money."

Some of Clinton’s people here argue that wins tonight would help their candidate reverse their rival’s 3-1 advantage in money raising in the last quarter, but they’re mostly staying belly down as they hope for the best out of Texas and Ohio, while others privately mope about the prospect of a divided party dragging into the next big primary state of Pennsylvania on April 22.

For his part, Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic Party State Chairman who stood on the steps of Elizabeth City Hall with Sen. Hillary Clinton when Gov. Jon Corzine endorsed her for president last year, projected stoic solemnity today as he considered Rhode Island and Vermont but more importantly Texas and Ohio, where the lion’s share of delegates are concentrated.

"The campaign has picked up momentum and we’ll see the results tonight," Cryan said of the Clinton campaign.

Another longtime Clinton supporter, U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8), downplayed the import of an Obama victory in Texas, and stayed focused on what most polls show is a touch and go lead for Clinton in Ohio.

"She has to win Ohio," said Pascrell, who in the last couple of weeks dispatched campaign workers to the mid-west to help the Clinton people. "If she loses Ohio it’s all over. She can come within a few points in a Texas loss and still hang around, but she’s got to win Ohio."

Clinton fund-raiser John F.X. Graham predicted today that Clinton would win three of the four states in play where the polls have been tight: Rhode Island, and Texas and Ohio, and ventured to say he believes Obama will come crashing back to earth tonight.

"Barack will have to decide what he’s going to if he loses three of four," said Graham. "Every state that Hillary has won has been a Democratic base state. If she wins Ohio tonight, she goes into Pennsylvania - where she’s already strong - with even more momentum. Pennsylvania has the same demographics as Ohio. If she does that, he needs to take the number two spot. That would give him the experience, being vice-president, which he obviously desperately needs."

Pascrell also said he liked a Clinton-Obama ticket, or an Obama-Clinton ticket if it works out that way. "They’ve been so evenly divided," said the congressman, "only a fool would have to conclude they wouldn’t be good for each other if they weren’t on the same ticket."

Obama’s New Jersey supporters say they’ll be ready to compete in Pennsylvania if it comes to that. Having been part of an effort in New Jersey where Obama lost statewide by ten points but won in Mercer by ten points, Sen. Shirley Turner (D-Mercer) said today, "I’m planning to go to Pennsylvania to help get out the vote. Philadelphia and Bucks County. If we have to be, we’ll be there."

But she likely won’t have to be, according to Obama ally and Newark City Councilman Ron Rice, Jr., who said Codey’s assessment is accurate.

"I’m convinced more than ever that Barack Obama is going to be the nominee," said Rice, who said he recently made 150 calls into Texas on behalf of the Obama campaign. "We’re going to get some wins today. And regardless, it’s mathematically impossible for Clinton to catch us in terms of delegates. We’ve won the most states and the most delegates. Even in the worst case scenario for us, if she wins all four states today, she still only has 14 states out 26. In addition to that, this fight has always been about delegates, not states, and we have the advantage there, too."

Graham counters that Obama has been victorious in states that may have provided great feel-good moments in primary contests, but that will quickly morph heartbreakingly back into Republican strongholds in a general election.

"Hillary’s got support in your blue states, your Democratic states that we need to win in a general election," said Graham, noting her big state victories in delegate-rich New York, New Jersey and California.

And while the Obama campaign has argued that their candidate is better suited for a general election battle with presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain, a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released last week shows that in a general election match-up, Obama and Clinton rate 42% and 43% respectively to McCain’s 38% and 39% - in New Jersey.

"Obama's campaign has had two central arguments," said Dan Cassino, a political scientist at Fairleigh Dickinson and a survey analyst for PublicMind. "First, that he's better able to capitalize on the Iraq war issue, and second, that he's more likely to draw support from across the board. In New Jersey, though, this simply doesn't seem to be the case."

Rice said the PublicMind poll does not prove much.

"We beat McCain nationally," said Rice. "People who say states like Kansas doesn’t matter are giving a slap in the face of the Democratic governor who won there. The whole point of Barack Obama is that he’s an X factor. He brings in young voters, African Americans, and Republicans. States that were given up at the start as losses in past general elections - like Kansas, and yes, South Carolina - we could be competitive there with Obama. I think the Clinton folks are only looking at about 20 states, and that’s not a 21st Century strategy."

Harrison said Graham and Obama both make important points. "Those New Jersey numbers for Obama are not hard right now," said the political science professor. "Clinton won the primary here by ten percentage points, so primary voters will favor her in a poll. But that could change."

As for Rice’s point about South Carolina and his candidate’s victory there over Clinton, Harrison said, "It’s wonderful to win the South Carolina primary by historic proportions, but I don’t know if in a general election Obama can carry a state like that enough to win."

Meanwhile, back in Ohio, Alexander was in the midst of what sounded like a robocall whirlwind in the background, in the Obama’s campaign’s Columbus headquarters.

Alexander, on leave as a law professor at Seton Hall University, has been in Ohio for two weeks, but his Garden State brethren haven’t abandoned him, as he’s played host to campaign foot-soldiers passing through Columbus on their way to other Ohio locales.

"We had a good group of about 40-50 folks here from Newark helping us organize," said Alexander, referring to a trip organized by Assemblywoman L. Grace Spencer (D-Essex). "I walked into one of our staging locations and a guy told me, ‘Hey you’re from Montclair.’"

One of the better known Obama supporters to tour Ohio was Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who made campaign stops in Columbus, Dayton and Wilberforce. While Booker’s been in Obama’s chariot from the beginning, other Democrats have privately admitted their knees are buckling as they try to publicly stand guard for Clinton. Still, others have been reluctant to celebrate Obama’s surge.

The candidate’s intellect notwithstanding, Paterson Mayor Jose "Joey" Torres, for example, a Clinton delegate, agrees with Graham that Obama outright lacks experience.

"He came to Paterson campaigning for the governor," recalled Torres. "I spent some time with him. Look, there’s no question about it. This guy’s brilliant. But he’s been in the U.S. Senate for what? Three years? I served 12 years on the council before I ran for mayor. You need experience as an elected official. If you served two terms and you wanted to run for mayor, I’d say ‘ok’ But one term? To me, a person running for mayor after one term would fall a little short."

Obama the law professor and community organizer has frequently answered the criticism by detailing the difference between Washington experience and broader life experience, arguing that the latter is what the country needs, and which he possesses.

But even as all of the warriors re-entrench with their political arms in this Clinton-Obama struggle and brace for the returns tonight, as Sen. Robert Menendez barnstorms south Texas speaking Spanish and Alexander makes another phone call in Ohio, there are those in the party, whether assessing contests in Iowa or New Hampshire, Texas, Ohio or even New Jersey, who have remained bemused and detached. Many? No. But significantly, one.

"I’m like Al Gore," said unpredictable party power player Sen. Ray Lesniak (D-Union) with a shrug in his voice. "I’ve grown disillusioned with presidential politics this year."