The obits

With about five weeks to go before the general election, it’s risky to write off any political campaign as a lost cause. But several underdog candidates who once seemed to have a slight chance at running competitive races do not seem to have picked up steam or support from their parties.

State Senate candidates Robert Colletti, Richard Dennison, Gina Genovese and John Villapiano have all run spirited campaigns. And while none has a good shot at winning on November 6th, all four insist that their campaigns are very much alive.

Meanwhile, Seema Singh’s State Senate campaign isn’t necessarily dead, though it is on life support.

Colletti, Robert. Former Elmwood Park Councilman. Campaign died September 12, 2007.

It was a good run for Colletti while it lasted. Facing off against Joseph Coniglio, an incumbent who was subject to federal investigation, Colletti must have had a strong enough showing in an internal Democratic poll to worry party leaders about losing the seat. But then Coniglio caved to pressure from those leaders and decided not to seek re-election. With the ascendancy of Assemblyman Bob Gordon to Coniglio’s ballot spot, Colletti’s prospects took a nosedive.

Just today, Colletti was subject to criticism from the Bergen Record’s Charles Stile for a campaign mailer that warned parents that Gordon would bus their children to “large urban-style schools,” which the columnist read to have racial connotations. Certainly, this type of criticism isn’t desirable when you’re running a long shot campaign to begin with.

But Colletti campaign manager Thom Ammirato referenced a famous Mark Twain quote: “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

Colletti never did make Conilgio’s ethical troubles the top issue of his campaign, even if it was the one issue that made the Republican a contender in this once competitive but now reliably Democratic district. The issue still working in Colletti’s favor, according to Ammirato, is taxes.

“It’s a low turnout election with a lot of people angry about taxes, and people are just beginning to wake up to the fact that there is a race it’s hard to count out anybody right now,” said Ammirato. “And in a low turnout year, anything can happen.”

Ingrid Reed, Director of the Eagleton Institute’s New Jersey Project, said that while the race is obviously in Gordon’s favor, the interesting question is how big his margin of victory will be.

“If Gordon should win, but by a slight margin, that would send a signal to the legislature on ethics,” said Reed. “So I think that’s why you want to keep watching that one.”

Dennison, Richard. 30-year-old lawyer/undertaker. Ran against Bush.

Richard Dennison calls on Sen. Diane Allen to denounce Bush

Dennison’s campaign might have had a better shot against an incumbent less entrenched than Diane Allen.

In a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 margin, Dennison focused on tying Allen to President Bush from the day he kicked off his campaign. He used an aggressive campaign style, showing up in front of Allen’s legislative office frequently throughout the summer – not the type of strategy employed by someone who’s just meant to be a warm body.

But Democratic sources admit that the party never intended to put any resources into the race – that Allen’s name recognition and local celebrity status from her days as a Philadelphia newscaster were too much to overcome. And during September, Dennison’s aggressive media approach seemed to taper off.

Moreover, one of the ways Allen, an early Bush supporter and Republican National Convention delegate in 2000 and 2004, has sought to distance herself from President Bush has been through support for the State Children’s Health Insurance Program – the recent cause celebre amongst the state’s Democratic congressional delegation and Gov. Jon Corzine.

Dennison said that his low profile in September was not due to his campaign fizzling out, but rather just the opposite. Dennison said he stopped holding press conferences to start hitting the sidewalks, putting in 12 hour days organizing his campaign and knocking on doors.

“With every day I’m more encouraged by the very strong likelihood that I will win…I want you to know that the campaign is alive and well,” said Dennison, who used the same Mark Twain quote used earlier by Republican campaign consultant Thom Ammirato.

Dennison pointed out that he has another press conference scheduled for Thursday in front of Allen’s legislative office, in which he plans to make a “major announcement.” And Senate President Dick Codey is scheduled to come down to Burlington County to hold a fundraiser for Dennison.

“This is going to be a low turnout year. My base is up in arms. They’re going to hit the polls,” said Dennison. “(Allen’s) base – they’re not so sure about her.”

Genovese, Gina. Former Mayor of Long Hill Township.

After Thomas Kean, Jr. lost his hard fought campaign against Bob Menendez, Democrats sought an opportunity to challenge what they thought would be a weakened State Senator in a fairly conservative district.

There was hype around Genovese’s candidacy in Democratic circles when she announced in March at a Garden State Equality Dinner. An openly gay self-described fiscal conservative and social moderate, some thought Genovese’s candidacy just might play in the district. According to Democratic sources, even if she wasn’t expected to provide a serious challenge, she could at least force Kean to spend some money on what should have been a safe seat.
Gina Genovese
“You really need quite a bit of visibility and a really sharp campaign to think that you could turn that district around,” said Ingrid Reed, who said she hadn’t heard much noise from the campaign. “It seemed as though there was real excitement about her candidacy, so I don’t know what’s happened with the campaign there.”

But Kean hasn’t appeared at all phased by Genovese’s candidacy, and has instead put his energy into become the next Senate minority leader (or, if he’s lucky, majority leader) – not a sign that he’s running scared.

But Genovese thinks that Kean is whistling past the grave yard.

“Isn’t that great? I couldn’t ask for anything better,” said Genovese of Kean’s minority leader aspirations.

Genovese said that she’s running an unconventional campaign, and has been working the on it full-time since June. She has a full-time staff of 10, and while she wouldn’t release the details of her internal polling, Genovese said the results look good.

“I saw my poll, so it’s not like I’m in lala land,” said Genovese. “Right now we have a very strategic, stealth-like campaign… You’re going to see a campaign here that’s very strategic. Everything has a purpose and intention.”

Villapiano, John. Former Assemblyman – 1988-1991

When PoliticsNJ.com interviewed Villapiano about his State Senate race against Sean Kean in late August, he said that it was considered second tier by the Democratic State Committee, and that the group planned to evaluate it around Labor Day to consider sending in more money and resources.John Villapiano

A little over a month later, Villapiano said that the money hasn’t come. And Democratic sources say that the party put more thought into capturing the Assembly seat being vacated by Kean than actually winning the Senate seat. Not to mention that many campaign resources for the area will be devoted to holding Ellen Karcher’s state Senate seat in the neighboring 12th district.

“Republicans have won consistently there,” said Reed. “You can come real close, but it’s hard to get over the top. So unless there’s a really creative, aggressive push, I think it’s going to be hard.”

But Villapiano said that, as far as he can tell, he’s running “neck and neck” with Kean, and compared the anti-Bush sentiment in his district to the anti-Florio sentiment that he said caused him to lose his bid to recapture an Assembly seat in 1993. Villapiano said he expects the candidates to come within one or two percentage points of each other in November.

“As far as Governor Codey is concerned and others I know in the Senate, right now they’ve been extremely supportive of my campaign verbally,” said Villapiano. “And maybe it’s time for them to be supportive of my campaign financially. Maybe I should call them up.”

And while the state party hasn’t come through with funds just yet, Villapiano said to expect a big push during the final three weeks of his campaign.

“We’re working hard. We’re everywhere we need to be and were extremely well received,” said Villapiano. “Maybe I’ll get to hold your column up like Truman holding up the newspaper with ‘Dewey defeats Truman.’”

On life support: Singh, Seemah. Former ratepayer advocate.

This was supposed to be the competitive Clean Elections district, but it never really turned out that way. Baroni, an already high profile Republican, has had the upper hand to all along, trumping Singh, a Democrat, in labor endorsements. Polls from both parties have Baroni running twenty points ahead.Seema Singh

Singh’s campaign, meanwhile, has hit several bumps: a story about Singh accepting donations from utility companies she used to regulate as ratepayer advocate, and allegations that she hired her former chief of staff, as a consultant while the state was paying her a pension for the same position – something the State Treasurer’s office says was improper.

Singh, who is the target of a state ethics investigation, said that she hired Leora Mosston for a completely different job, and would not have done so if she knew she was receiving a pension.

But it’s too early to count Singh out, said Ingrid Reed. This is a clean elections race, and Singh has raised the necessary 800 contributions to get nearly $534,000 in funding – the exact same amount as Baroni. In other words, as bad as it looks right now for Singh, she has plenty of money to play with.

“Both of the campaigns are so active that I just think you have to keep it open,” said Reed.

The Singh campaign points out that Baroni has spent more money than they have, and that they’ll have more to money for ad time during the final weeks of the campaign.

“It’s hard to put something on life support when our mail hasn’t started, our TV hasn’t started,” said Singh spokeswoman Liz Meyers.

And Singh continues to fight back against Baroni,  highlighting the case of a Monroe Township woman who quit the GOP after feeling pressured to sign a letter to the editor on Singh’s ethical woes.

Singh said that she’s confident about her chances on Election Day, and that Baroni is a favorite of the press – not necessarily the public.

“It’s frustrating because he’s out there orchestrating all this stuff about me and none of you want to say a word,” said Singh.