February 1, 2008 - 12:57pm

Poll: NJ primary now in play; Clinton's lead falls to six points

Three days before the New Jersey primary, Hillary Clinton's lead has gone from 34 points to just 6: Getty Images PhotoThree days before the New Jersey primary, Hillary Clinton's lead has gone from 34 points to just 6: Getty Images Photo
Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama in New Jersey has narrowed to 44%-38%, according to a private poll commissioned by one of the state’s most powerful Democratic leaders, George Norcross. The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on January 30-31, was distributed to some Norcross allies earlier this morning and obtained by PolitickerNJ.com.

Click here to view Stanley Greenberg's polling memo.

A Quinnipiac University poll released on January 23 had Clinton with a 17-point lead, 49%-32%. John Edwards was at 10% and Dennis Kucinich at 1%; both candidates have since dropped out of the race. In that survey, 25% of Clinton voters had indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to change their mind. In December, Clinton’s lead in New Jersey was 51%-17%.

The poll shows that likely primary voters view both candidates favorably – Obama at 64%-17%, and Clinton at 66%-19%.

"Edwards supporters are more open to Obama than Clinton in New Jersey. Among voters initially supporting Edwards, 26 percent shift their support to Obama, while only 12 percent shift to Clinton (34 percent of Edwards’ supporters say they will continue to support Edwards although he is no longer in the race and 28 percent remain undecided)," the poll memo said. "And among the 25 percent of voters who have no preference or indicate that they would vote for a candidate who is no longer campaigning, just 14 percent say there is “no chance” they would vote for Obama in the primary election. Among this same group, more than one-fifth (21 percent) say that there is 'no chance' they would support Clinton."

Clinton leads by just 4% in the New York media market, 43%-39%. In the Philadelphia media market, Clinton leads 47%-36%.

Obama has a 2-1 lead among African American voters, and

"has closed the gap with a coalition of broad support among men and younger voters."

Clinton and Obama both campaigned in New Jersey last month, and Bill Clinton was in Camden earlier this week.

Norcross has not personally endorsed any candidate, although he has key allies in both camps Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts and Rep. Rob Andrews are backing Clinton, and State Sen. John Adler is with Obama.

Comments

Unsurprised


This does not shock me.  Obama is certainly charging hard and his appeal is undeniable.  As somebody once said "I never lost a game, I just ran out of time".  While Obama may not have enough time to close the gap before Tuesday (in NJ and other states) if the campaign carried only a couple of weeks longer Obama would certainly get the nomination, now I'd put his odds as even.

--Saint Joe--

02/01/08 12:43 pm

Saint Joe -I can see a few Hail Mary Passes Here in Progress


Obama has momentum in all the polls released today and the most interesting of all -FOX POll released at 1:30 pm today in REGARD to the QUESTION...and there were more....

Who is the most positive Dem Presidential Candidate?

Republicans and Democrats independently and whwn combined say Obama!!!!!!!

Saint Kathy

02/01/08 3:26 pm

Obama's Hail Mary?


You mean like something like the picture below distributed by some dem black op-er like Chris Lehane?

http://lostliberal.blogspot.com/

--Saint Joe--

02/01/08 3:55 pm

OK-folks need some back story!!


What does Chris Lehene and Monica Lewinsky have to do with anything?  What have I missed being on the chamber train...

02/01/08 3:58 pm

Mom


I dont know what the chamber train is but Chris Lehane is the kind of behind-the-scenes dirty trickster that politicians claim not to employ and reminding people of Monica might be the kind of hail mary (long pass) Obama needs to throw in order to catch up to Hillary in only a few short days

--Saint Joe--

02/01/08 4:04 pm

mon-in-law apparently not


too much!  Obama has got the momentum -not to mention the net-roots and a surge of young voters:

that's all that I know!

02/01/08 4:07 pm

ah ha now i understand i was on a Hail Mary plain


and now I hear a dem operative named Lehane has "Monicaesque" dirt on HRC or someone close to her...

 i prefer the higher ground -elevation...the kind that Obama offers...

Kathy Callahan

02/01/08 4:12 pm

Manufacturing Jobs for the Middle Class


Before I can endorse Hillary, I would like to know if she would be willing to repeal or significantly modify her husband's NAFTA.  It is clear this legislation was a huge give away to corporate America at the expense of middle class manufacturing jobs.  While Hillary talks often of tax breaks for the middle class, she is short on discussion on creating manufacturing jobs for the middle class.  While everyone raises the "free trade" flag, it is clear free trade only works when certain economies are equal.  Otherwise you have the "race to the botton" as seen with NAFTA and now CAFTA.  I wish she would tell us how she plans on restoring America as a manufacturing power.  Only then will this great nation and it's backbone, the middle class, recover.

02/02/08 1:46 pm

SUNDAY: ZOGBY and Washington POST 2-3 VIRTUAL TIE Obama


Released: February 03, 2008

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain on a Roll; Clinton, Obama Neck-and-Neck in Key Super Tuesday States

 

Pollster John Zogby: “The Mac Attack appears ready to launch on Super Tuesday. McCain’s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over 50. Romney holds a double digit lead there among conservatives and leads 56%-18% among very conservative voters. Romney also leads among white voters and among those who say that the war on terror and immigration are top issues.

 “McCain will do well because of his big leads in the other states and because of winner-take-all states. But Romney may at least have a strong showing in California. In Missouri, Huckabee is in second place by virtue of strong support with conservative and (especially) very conservative voters.

 “On the Democratic side, California, Missouri  and New Jersey are so close. Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).  

 In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).

 “Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.

 “It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates.”

Key Super Tuesday States by the Numbers:

New Jersey Republicans

Republicans

1-31/2-2

McCain

54%

Romney

23%

Huckabee

6%

Paul

4%

Undecided/someone else

13%

Sample: 870 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

 New Jersey Democrats

Democrats

1-31/2-2

Clinton

43%

Obama

42%

Gravel

1%

Undecided/someone else

14%

Kathy Callahan

02/03/08 9:41 am

Here' s your problem with NJ


Profane, boastful and sure of his power, one of the state's most formidable political bosses can be heard proclaiming his influence over everything that moves in New Jersey politics, from U.S. senators to lowly local officials, in a series of secret recordings released yesterday.

In a rare unguarded dialogue on backroom politics Jersey-style, Democratic power broker George Norcross III tells a councilman in South Jersey that he can call the shots from behind the scenes.

"I'm not going to tell you this to insult you, but in the end, the McGreeveys, the Corzines, they're all going to be with me," Norcross said on the tape. "Not that they like me, but because they have no choice."

Norcross bragged about his political connections to former Gov. James E. McGreevey and U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine at a Jan. 3, 2001, meeting secretly taped by then-Palmyra Councilman John Gural. He told Gural that he'd had breakfast at Corzine's home the morning before and spoke with the newly elected senator once a week. In the conversation, Norcross sought to persuade Gural to help him sabotage the career of a political rival.

The tape offered a glimpse into the bare-knuckle politicking that has almost become a cliché in New Jersey. In a series of rambling conversations, Norcross brags of helping the Assembly Budget Committee chairman win a lucrative private job and tells of threatening another assemblyman not to "make nice" with a rival Democratic leader. He discusses the politics of awarding municipal contracts, saying: "There's nothing wrong with considering if you can help a friend ... as long as a friend's doing a good job."

The recordings were made secretly by Gural in cooperation with a state investigation into political corruption. Gural, now mayor of Palmyra, wore a wire every day for two months in 2000-2001 as investigators amassed more than 330 hours of recordings. Their probe ended in February, without any indictments of public officials.

A small sampling of the tapes -- 117 minutes of conversation, mainly between Gural and Norcross -- was released by the Attorney General's Office even as it won an appeals court order to delay releasing the rest. The state argued those should not be made public until they can be edited to protect "innocent third parties" and avoid revealing "investigative techniques," but decided to release the Norcross portions because he requested it.

Gural has long claimed that the tapes would show that Norcross was behind a series of threats and bribes to force him to vote against reappointing Ted Rosenberg, a local lawyer and political rival, as the Palmyra borough solicitor. But Norcross has said they would prove he did nothing illegal.

"The tapes show that Mr. Gural and Mr. Rosenberg invented, fabricated and lied in all their wild accusations," Bill Tambussi, a lawyer for Norcross, said last night. "Otherwise, the only other truth they document is that Mr. Norcross has fought to strengthen the Democratic Party and to advocate for South Jersey."

Gural, however, complained yesterday that the Attorney General's Office didn't release enough of the tapes to make sense of the conversations with Norcross.

The tapes are "a bunch of disconnected dialogue," Gural said last night. "There's no context."

Gural said the context lies in other recordings he made of his employers at JCA Associates, a politically connected engineering firm. Gural claimed that his bosses, under pressure from Norcross, threatened to fire him unless he voted against Rosenberg.

"They threatened my livelihood. They said if I didn't do what they told me to do I was fired," Gural said last night. "I believe the quid pro quo is obvious when all of the conversations fit into the dialogue."

Tapes and transcripts released yesterday covered five meetings or phone conversations between Gural and Norcross. The longest was a 90-minute meeting on Jan. 3 at Norcross' office in Cherry Hill, also attended by JCA president Mark Neisser.

At that meeting, Norcross told Gural he wanted Rosenberg out, complaining about Rosenberg's vocal opposition to a judicial appointment Norcross had helped engineer for former Burlington County Democratic Party head John Harrington.

"I want you to fire that (expletive) ... you need to get rid of this (expletive) Rosenberg for me and teach this (expletive) a lesson," Norcross said.

Norcross, an executive with Commerce Bank in charge of its insurance division, has never held elected office but has served as backroom adviser to a dozen of the state's top politicians, including McGreevey.

He played a key role in selecting both the Speaker and Majority Leader of the state Assembly; selecting county executives in New Jersey's two biggest counties; and, most recently, securing the Democratic gubernatorial nomination for Corzine. Dozens of elected officials in Trenton owe their political careers to the influence and money Norcross wields.

Former Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Torricelli said he never made a major decision in office without bouncing it off Norcross.

"George Norcross is a cornerstone of anything that is built in New Jersey of any substantial magnitude," Torricelli said. "George has money and influence and respect."

Norcross keeps a low profile, preferring to operate behind the scenes. However, in the tapes he is often profane, ruthless and happy to let Gural know just how much influence he has. His boasting goes all the way to the upper echelons of state politics, including his breakfast with Corzine.

Corzine declined to respond to Norcross' taped comments. "We haven't seen the transcripts. We will be happy to comment when we do," said Corzine's campaign spokeswoman Ivette Mendez.

At one point during a Jan. 3 meeting, Norcross suggested that he helped Assembly Budget Chairman Louis Greenwald (D-Camden) get a job with Remington & Vernick, an engineering firm with extensive government contracts.

Norcross said the firm had lost business in South Jersey and "realized they needed to create some good will, so they made Lou an offer he couldn't turn down."

Asked if Greenwald, a lawyer, was going to do marketing, Norcross laughed and said, "Oh, what else would it be. He'll probably tell you he's counsel. No, I'm sure he'll do some legal work for him, but it's gonna be a joke."

He added, "He doesn't like practicing law ... no, never did."

Greenwald could not be reached for comment last night.

At another point, Norcross said that the only reason Democratic Assemblymen Herb Conaway and Jack Conners got elected was "because nobody thought that anybody could win that year and they just threw these two boobs up."

Norcross said he kept Conaway on a tight leash. He said that one day he "sat him down" to warn him he'd better not "make nice" with then-Assembly Minority Leader Joseph Doria, who led an opposing Democratic faction.

"I'll tell you, if you ever do that and I catch you one more time doing it, you're gonna get your (expletive) cut off," Norcross said he told Conaway. "He got the message." Neither Conaway nor Conners could be reached for comment last night.

Later in the conversation Norcross boasted that Doria and acting Gov. Richard Codey, then a senator, were "furious" over an unspecified deal "that we cut with McGreevey because they viewed it as we got the world and they got (expletive). And the reality is they did. Tough luck."

When the conversation turned to Rosenberg, Norcross pressed Gural to vote for his ouster, saying it was crucial to driving out "extremists" from the Democratic Party. Later Gural asked for Norcross' help in getting appointed to the board of elections. Norcross said he would try to help. But a quid pro quo was never mentioned.

In another telephone conversation about two weeks later, Norcross apologized to Gural for not following up, and asked if he'd spoken to Burlington County Democratic Chairman Louis Gallagher. Gural said he had, but was told it was "too late in the game" because the board of elections position was filled.

"All right, so what else can he do to be helpful?" Norcross asked.

Gural said he planned to have lunch with Gallagher, and Norcross said that's good but added, "I wanna stay in the background." At a different point in the conversation, Norcross reiterated that "we need to get rid of Rosenberg" and said he wanted nothing more than a strong Burlington County party.

The only convictions to stem from the probe were guilty pleas by Neisser and two other JCA officers to minor tax offenses, for trying to disguise $100,000 of printing work for local Democrats as a business expense. All three paid fines and were given probation.

 

Staff writers Josh Margolin, Dunstan McNichol, Ron Marsico and Rick Hepp contributed to this report.

 

02/16/08 12:33 am