November 4, 2007 - 1:56pm
Poll: Whelan leads McCullough, Asselta race a dead heat
By Editor
Tags: Sonny McCullough, Nicholas Asselta, Norris Clark, Nelson Albano, Jim Whelan, Jeff Van Drew, Michael Donohue, Blondell Spellman, Vince Polistina, John Amodeo, Matthew Milan, Joseph Wilkins
A Zogby poll conducted for the Press of Atlantic City and Richard Stockton State College shows Democrat James Whelan leading GOP State Sen. Sonny McCullough by a 50%-37% margin, and the race between Republican State Sen. Nicholas Asselta and Democrat Jeff Van Drew to be a statistical dead heat.
Van Drew, a three-term Assemblyman, leads Asselta by a 45%-42% margin. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5%.
In the 2nd district poll, Republican Assembly candidates Vincent Polistina and John Amodeo have a lead over Democrat Joseph Willkins and Blondell Spellman for two open Assembly seats. On a combined ballot, Polistina leads with 41%, followed by Amodeo at 35%. Wilkins has 28% and Spellman is at 25%. Republican Assemblyman Frank Blee is retiring and Whelan is running for the Senate.
In District 1, incumbent Democratic Assemblyman Nelson Albano is at 45% and Republican Michael Donohue is at 36%. Republican Norris Clark (28%) and Democrat Matthew Milan (25%) trail.
For more information, read John Froonjian's story.
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Asselta in Big Trouble
As a nine year incumbent Asselta has been behind on every poll taken . In this poll he can only get 42%. That tells it all. The other important item in the poll is that independents are breaking 2 to 1 in favor of VanDrew as it gets closer to election day. Any incumbent who is behind at this stage of the race is in very big trouble. Asselta needs just about everything to break his way to have a shot on Tuesday and there doesn't appear to be any momentum going his way.
Press of AC - Very Irresponsible Newspaper
Releasing a fake poll 2 days before an election is very irresponsible of a newspaper. JOHN FROONJIAN and the AC PRESS are on someone's payroll. The paper has always tended to be slanted in favor of Bill Gormley.
Will JOHN FROONJIAN be held accountable whenthese election results are not accurate or will this inaccurate, slanted reporting be noticed?
AC PRESS very poor newspaper that is known for slanted and bias coverage.
The GOP will win in District 1 & District 2 ....let's see if AC Press does a follow-up report after election on the misleading poll data.
Energy vs. Apathy
The choice is very clear.Vote for the energetic , lets get something done candidates in VanDrew and Whelan, or settle for the old apathic way and vote for the " can't get anything done " combo of Asselta and McCoullough.
It appears that the voters are moving towards a new beginning by sending two high energy Senators to Trenton.
Labor For Wilkens and Albano
In a low turnout election the GOTV is critical. Labor will go a long way in helping Wilkens get over the top in the 2nd and with Albano helping his running mate Milam get a victory. The fact that Labor is split even in the 1st District Senate race( maybe even a little advantage to VanDrew) then that will hurt Asselta even more. Asselta's running mates have no Labor support and that will be a disadvantage to him in a close election .
1st District
I was in the 1st district yesterday and was really impressed by Asselta's gotv program, where there were at least 45 college republicans out there knocking on doors.
Out of town Stockton Kids
Kids who were paid from Stockton who did not even know the District. I am sure they will sway a lot of votes! This has been the problem with Asselta's campaign since the beginning. Out of District people coming in and acting like they know the needs of the 1st District voters. He has been wrong from the very start and now it is too late.
Out of District Influence
First off, every single volunteer supporting the Asselta campaign this weekend was unpaid.
And if you are concerned about out of district influence, I suggest that you call up Van Drew and tell him to return the millions that he has taken from the Camden County political machine led by Norcross.
Laughable
There are not 45 college kids who even know Assleta in the 1st District! If they were not paid they were recruited by the same Asselta supporter who had them out during the debate at Middle township. Probably a college professor who is giving out credit for some course he is teaching. Nothing is wrong with it but do not make it out like there is some kind of upswell of support from the college age group for Asselta. The difference between Asselta and Van Drew is that VanDrew has actual 1st District voters working for him,not a group of out of the area college kids who will not even be voting in the 1st District.
What are you talking about?
Do you enjoy making stuff up? Your accusation that those students were out there going door to door simply because a college professor offered them some extra credit is completely baseless. And all of Asselta's volunteers were unpaid.
And you speak about in district support as if it were something that was important to the Van Drew campaign. You can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think George Norcross is a resident of the first district. Van Drew's campaign would be nothing without the out of district support from the Camden County political machine.
The problem for Asselta...
...is that the Press drastically undersampled unaffiliated voters (on the order of 18 percent, rather than the order of 48 percent, as the district is composed). Those unaffiliated voters are breaking for Van Drew 2 to 1, according to Zogby. They don't deny it.
In addition, Van Drew probably ought to pay for a quarter of Asselta's GOTV budget, because one out of every four Republicans they're pulling are Van Drew supporters.
Finally, the undecideds are breaking Van Drew's way as well. What does it all add up to? Van Drew by 6.
No Sense - Are you smoking crack?
Take a tranquilizer....settle down...your welfare check will still arrive on time every month.
Are you an expert or something?
You sound like a goofy know it all loser.
how sweet it is...
the eve of the eve of the annihilation of the GOP stronghold on the 1st .. JVD will win by considerably more than 3% by my opinion; Assemblyman Albano is making a name for himself in SJ with a convincing win; and hopefully, the success of the two assemblyman coupled with a strong GOTV push can help get Milam over the hump .... the Press poll was incredibly inaccurate, in part due to the dualistic influence of the GOP-leaning newspaper and the GOP-leaning professor who oversaw the polling. Come November 7th, Asselta and Co. will blame Camden County (though they have been largely-funded by North Jersey for years, if not decades), but need look no further than their own pompous attitudes that have long been endured by South Jersey because there was no other credible choice - until the dentist from Dennis started practicing.
TEAM NORCROSS COMES THROUGH W/BIG BUCKS
So did Cody(1 million) and he wants to put vlt's in every racetrack. Which master will Whelan Serve? TOP TAGS TEAM NORCRO$$ WAYNE BRYANT JIM WHELAN CRAIG CALLOWAY BOB LEVY INDICTMENTS WHELAN TEAM CODY VLT'S PETE CALLOWAY thepress?ofatlanticcity norcro$$ corrupt camden campaign cash absentee ballots james whelan messinger ballots jihad calloway whelan levy NORCRO$$
j-crew you sound desperate
Did you get promised a no show job by Norcross in Van Drew office?
How could pouring 3 - 4 million in disrict 1 & 2 still result in a GOP victory!!! Will be quite a story on Tuesday.
I have an idea for the DEMOCRATS who still control NJ State Budget. GET us out of the 4 BILLION dollar whole you have us in and you will win alot of elections down the raod a spell.
why would I be desperate?
the only ones who are desperate are those backing an INCUMBENT who has not lead in a single poll in one the most GOP-saturated district in our great state ... Jeff's grassroots approach earned him a lot of voters here in CMC, and now that we actually have a viable candidate for Senate, of course we're garnering more donations .. All I know is that Lobiondo better watch out - especially if and when the JVD victory swells to 9 or 10%.
You still haven't seen the real polling, stuck?
After the Press did you the favor of debunking of the line of bull you're being fed, you still didn't swipe a copy of the latest polling off your boss's desk, stuck?
Stop sipping the Kool-Aid and get back to work!
PS -- Van Drew is counting on you and all your GOTV friends to pull out his significant Republican crossover votes.
The Press acknowledges...
"Independent voters were breaking for Van Drew 2-1. Eighteen percent of poll participants said they were unaffiliated, but 47 percent of registered voters in Cape May County and 64 percent in Cumberland are independents. That swing vote may be under-represented in the poll."
-- This tells us all we need to know about why the Press was more definitive in their headline and their lede. The margin is actually two or three times what you see.
The Press acknowledges...
"Independent voters were breaking for Van Drew 2-1. Eighteen percent of poll participants said they were unaffiliated, but 47 percent of registered voters in Cape May County and 64 percent in Cumberland are independents. That swing vote may be under-represented in the poll."
-- This tells us all we need to know about why the Press was more definitive in their headline and their lede. The margin is actually two or three times what you see.
District 1
Yeah, no one is working for Asselta...just the CWA, AFSCME and the AFL-CIO. You're right, FIRSTAMEND07, its all just out of town college students..NOT! Considering the fact Van Drew's lead on September 1 was 15 points, 9 points on October 1, this is not good news for Van Drew. Asselta has an extremely large pull operation for Election day, unprecedented for Republicans in District 1.
I also LOVE you're trying to paint Asselta as the ONLY incumbent. Van Drew is running for re-election as well. This is a battle of two incumbents.
It will be close for sure. But NO ONE should be counting on victory tomorrow night, especially Van Drew.
Asselta better have a big pull tomorrow!
After all, more than 1 out of every 4 Republican votes he pulls are for Van Drew. Maybe the dentist from Dennis should be paying for a quarter of Asselta's GOTV program.