January 7, 2008 - 2:25pm
Redistricting
By Wally EdgeThe Record's Herb Jackson wrote about 2012 congressional redistricting in his Capital Games column this week, noting a PolitickerNJ.com fantasy map that pitted Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen and Democrat Bill Pascrell against each other in a general election contest. Jackson reported that Democrats would like to see Steven Rothman pick up Scott Garrett's portion of Bergen County and force Frelinghuysen into a primary with Scott Garrett after New Jersey loses one of its thirteen House seats after the 2010 census.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates New Jersey's population at 8,724,560; that means the size of a congressional district would be about 727,047 - an increase of about 79,789 people per district.
Moving Rothman west is a viable option, although it could make his district more politically competitive down the road. Bergen County has an estimated 2007 population of 904,037 - 176,990 more than the ideal size of a congressional district. A Frelinguysen vs. Garrett contest would also force Pascrell to pick up more Republican towns - not a problem for him, but maybe for a future Democrat looking to succeed him later in the decade. It would also push more Republican towns into the current seventh district - not a problem for the GOP if they hold Mike Ferguson's seat, but perhaps a non-starter if Linda Stender wins.
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7-6
I think it will be difficult to squeeze two incumbent Republicans into one district without making other Democrat districts competitive. Look at the results of statewide elections in 04 (Prez) 05 (Gov) 06 (Senate). The percentage that the Dem beat the Rep is almost exactly the 7:6 ratio we currently have in Congress. That aspect of the math is pretty simple, and that balance is actually quite fair right now. It might have to be 7:5 by 2012, but as Wally pointed out, first we have to see if the Republicans defend 3 and 7.
Also I had mentioned a year ago (pre-2006 election) that there was a big piece of irony in the last redistricting. 12 and 7 swapped areas to make each safer, and Republicans complained that the powers that be were ceding a district they lost by 161 votes to a Democrat in exchange for strengthening a seat that was reliably Republican anyway. But as it turned out, Holt won '02 with a landslide that would have been good enough in the old district, and it was the Republican that needed every vote later in '06. I don't think there is any doubt that Rep. Ferguson would have lost the old 7th in 2006.