November 19, 2007 - 6:43pm
Rothenberg: Another headache for Republicans
By Matt Friedman
Tags: Mike Ferguson, Stuart Rothenberg
In less than two weeks, two out of the three Republicans targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have decided not to seek re-election.
According to Stuart Rothenberg, Editor-in-Chief of the Rothenberg Political Report, that's got to hurt.
"Right now with a Democrat who just ran in a marginal district, in what could be a bad time for Republicans, an open seat only adds to the Republicans' headache," said political analyst Stu Rothenberg, Editor-in-Chief of the Rothenberg Political Report. "The retirement adds another layer of doubt to Republicans' hold on the seat"
Rothenberg had already classified the seat as "leans Republican" - a very competitive category -- since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was going to run a fully-funded Stender in a rematch against Ferguson, after she very narrowly lost a chance to oust him last year with a shoe-string campaign. No word yet on whether that categorization will change.
But, said Rothenberg, if the Republican recruitment effort comes out with just the right candidate to run in this narrowly Republican district, they might actually improve their chance of keeping the seat.
"Now if they can get a good candidate who can appeal to swing voters, who is a good campaigner, at the end of the day they might be better off than with Ferguson," said Rothenberg. "It wasn't exactly a blowout last time."
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I love how we have political analysts who arent from NJ commenting on the open 7th seat congressional race. Rothenberg has no idea who Stender is, or the political climate of the 7th. Stender almost won because 2006 was a bad republican year and Ferguson was a horrible candidate. If Sen. Lance, Asm. Bramnick, or any of the other republican hopeful get the nomination, they will sweep Stender. Congressional seats are gerrymandered so one party wins, and the 7th is a republican district. Period.
Besides Rothenberg...
Chris Cillizza over at the Washington Post's blog 'The Fix' also weighs in on Ferguson's seat, stating " Republicans argue that the district has shown a willingness to vote for GOP statewide candidates (Franks in 2000, Doug Forrester in the 2005 governor's race). True, but New Jersey is Democratic territory and should act like it in a presidential year -- especially if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is leading the ticket. Another top tier pickup opportunity for Democrats." That's two updated political analyses that immediately consider district 7 to be in play. Cillizza was also quick to analyze the district 3 race change, calling it a prime opportunity for a Democratic pickup. Of course, I would think that Edwards would reel in more voters than Clinton, but I agree with Cillizza's overall analysis.
I can assure you that Van Hollen and the DCCC are going to go after district 7 like the top tier race that it is. Stender is more than capable of winning this seat in what looks to be a very close and contested election. Without their top pick, Kean Jr., committing to run, and with the NRCC having only $2 million in the bank, there are few resources available for Republicans to defend against Stender's aggressive challenge. These are exciting, hopeful times to be a New Jersey Democrat, indeed.
Stender will be even stronger in 2008
Linda Stender came to within 1% of defeating Fergie in a very heavily Republican district. Yes, the GOP had a tough year all around, but there's every reason to believe that 2008 will also be hard for them -- especially considering that the White House is trending Democratic, regardless of who the major party nominees turn out to be.
Stender now starts out with better name recognition, and will have more funding than last time. She also has a lot of boots on the ground, and that's something money can't buy.
Regardless of who the Republicans nominate for the 7th, it will be someone who either aided and abetted the treachery of Bush & Cheney, or at best did nothing to stand in their way. So even many Republican voters in the 7th are ready to abandon the party at the national level.
You guys are wishful thinkers.
Kean was not the first choice. He was asked of his interest out of respect. No one actually expected him to abandon the leadership post he just nailed to run a tough fight for Congress.
Bramnick will be a much better candidate for the GOP. He's more moderate and can raise money. He is known in the district, being a well-liked and well-repsected assemblyman for five years.
You can't link him to Iraq, you can't link him to Bush, you can't link him to DeLay, you can't say anything about SCHIP, you can't call him weak on the enviroment or stem cells, you can't say he got in a fight with a co-ed in a bar, you can't call him a carpetbagger...
This was good news for the gop, NOT bad.
And you can't call him a candidate...
I still am waiting for the real reason Mikey is stepping down...What does Larry Flynt have on him?