September 24, 2007 - 10:43am
Rothenberg: Republicans should not have “a shred of optimism” in taking on Lautenberg
By Matt FriedmanNational Republicans should think twice about devoting resources to challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.
Rothenberg, who publishes The Rothenberg Political Report, wrote an article in today’s issue of Roll Call in which he argued that Lautenberg’s recent underwhelming poll numbers are not likely signs of vulnerability, and that Republicans have little chance of putting his seat in play.
Rothenberg cited an Eagleton Institute poll from last month that had some troubling numbers for Lautenberg. According to the poll, only 24 percent of respondents thought that Lautenberg deserved another term, while 61 percent said it’s “time for a change.”
"The first problem with using these poll numbers to conclude that Lautenberg is at significant risk is that New Jersey poll numbers almost always are deceiving,” writes Rothenberg. “Incumbents invariably start their re-election campaigns with mediocre survey numbers because many state voters get much of their media from New York City or Philadelphia and aren’t especially attuned to the activities of their own Senators.”
Rothenberg pointed to a May, 2006 Quinnipiac poll in which Sen. Bob Menendez had a favorability rating of just 20 percent and an approval rating of just 34 percent. Yet he still managed to pull off a nine point victory against Tom Kean, Jr. in November. While acknowledging that Lautenberg is vulnerable on the age issue, with a majority of poll respondents saying he’s too old to effectively serve another term, Rothenberg downplayed its importance.
"We won’t know exactly where this race stands for months — until Republicans have a nominee and we see how the Iraq War stands. But whatever Lautenberg’s present or future vulnerabilities, he’s a Democrat running in a state and national political environment that favors Democrats,” wrote Rothenberg. “That gives Republicans no reason for even a shred of optimism”
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Evidently, The Only Thing New Jerseyans Dislike....
more than Democrats, are Republicans!
From Frederick Douglass
And seniors...
...according to Lautenberg's polls and the fact that most of them are being forced out of the state due to rising property taxes!!!
Dear RNC Chair Mel Martinez:
Dear RNC Chair Martinez: Here in New Jersey, we have a really strong pair of Republicans vying for Frank Lautenberg's senate seat. There is Joe Pennacchio, who has the endorsement of the NJ Right to Life and other fundamentalist groups; in the NJ Assembly, Pennacchio has done a good job at attempting to block environmental legislation, and he has fought "the gay agenda" with civil unions.
We all know that, like Senator David Vitter said in 2004 (before he was outed for extramarital sex with a madame), homosexuality is the greatest threat facing America!
And then there is Anna Estabrook, who has still to figure out key positions and stands on central issues facing the country such as Iraq; but she can always fly by the wind on such issues, just as Romney, McCain and Giuliani are Renaissance men and change opinion regularly.
Anyway, though the Republican Party is probably going to lose senate seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, and perhaps Oregon, I think it incumbent upon the RNC Senate campaign to dump millions into the senate campaign in N.J. This Lautenberg guy has only held the Bush administration accountable for the war in Iraq, brought millions back to the state in federal funding, particularly in transportation, and voted nearly perfectly on environmental issues. (Republicans know full well that global warming, like that whole stem cell funding and "theory of evolution" stuff, is a hoax concocted by progressives).
Please disregard this "report" from reputable political analyst Stu Rothenberg and instead give millions to the Pennacchio or Estabrook campaign, thus taking away resources from other senate campaigns. It will be money well spent!
Thanks (and God Save Rush Limbaugh!),
New Jersey Republicans
P.S. Keep up the good work on fighting the homosexuals, evolutionists, scientists, "womens' rights" types, and anti-torture groups!
Overheard on a TV gameshow..
Our next contestant: Stuart Rothenberg.
His category: The Bloody Obvious!
-(a paraphrase from John Cleese & Connie Booth's Fawlty Towers)
marty mc....
talk about a hack answer martin... how does that answere any question about a substantive issue?