July 27, 2007 - 11:32am
Rothman's Obama gambit
By Wally EdgeCongressman Steven Rothman has gambled on Barack Obama in his possible bid for a U.S. Senate seat in 2008. If 83.5-year-old Frank Lautenberg does not seek re-election next year (and he says he will), three Democratic Congressmen want his seat: Rothman, Frank Pallone, and Rob Andrews. Pallone and Andrews were early supporters of Hillary Clinton. Rothman, some pundits opine, figures that if Obama turns out to be the Democratic presidential nominee -- something that might be settled well before the '08 Senate race is -- he might have an easier (though hardly automatic) time securing party support for a statewide bid.
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still Andrews
Even if Obama is the nominee (big if), I don't see how that helps Rothman secure the nomination.
Obama and his NJ supporters aren't much of a match for Corzine, Menendez, and the other bosses, all of whom are likely to support Andrews for being a good soldier the last time around.
Rothman shows independence
Rothman is showing voters he's not a puppet to the BCDO, Ferriero as well as Corzine. People are tired of overly ambitious politicos who will say or do anything for the sake of winning (Torricelli and McGreevey are the best examples of that kind of flawed character). Rothman has led the Bergen Democrats out of the wilderness in 1992 when Democrats never won anything in Bergen County. Long before Ferriero, Rothman knew how to win and did exactly that. His endorsement of Obama was thoughtful and made sense. Instead of following the herd he made a wise calculation and separated himself from the ever embarassing BCDO. Rothman is the best choice for statewide office if the other choices are "pathetic" Pallone and "angry" Andrews.
Andrews inevitable
If it is an appointment, it has all been promised to him by Corzine and Menendez in exchange for his backing of Menendez last year. NJ is also due for a South Jersey Senator. Moreover, Corzine doesn't want the possibility of a primary challenge in 2009 and Andrews poses that threat. Finally, if we're talking about a primary, Andrews would have the entire south, parts of Hudson and Essex. What do Rothman, Pallone and even Holt come to the table with? Does Rothman even have the backing of Bergen? Smart money's on Andrews.
Rothman carries Bergen
As well as Hudson and Passaic. Rothman will win Essex as well. Do you actually think Andrews can compete with Rothman in the 9th or the 37th? Get real. Rothman carries the Hudson portion of the 9th with ease (NB, Kearny, Secaucus and parts of Jersey City). Andrews ran one of the worst primary efforts only maybe equaled by Bob Roe in 1977. The guy has no personality and has limited support in Hudson. No one is going to choose a guy from South Jersey over someone they know. Rothman can raise as much cash and is far more appealing in a general election. Andrews time has come and gone.
Nick Sacco thinks differently
Ask Nick Sacco how Rothman does in Hudson County. As for Rothman's abilities, his personality may count for much in the online dating game but I don't think its going to help him in an election. Money and influence talk. Right now, both Pallone and Andrews have more of both than Rothman. If I had to handicap the race, its Andrews first, Pallone second and then maybe Rothman if Holt decides not to run.
Please.
You speak for Nick Sacco? Didn't Rothman endorse Nick for re-election? Where was Andrews and Pallone? Sacco is organization. He was for Vega. He'll be with a local guy versus a guy who lost a "can't lose" primary to Jimmy M! As for money, Rothman can raise as much as they can - dollar for dollar. The smart move is Rothman. He'll carry Bergen, Hudson, Essex and Passaic. That's enough to win a primary in a fractured field. More importantly, Rothman will finish second in central Jersey while Andrews finishes third.
North Bergen funding
Not a smart move by Rothman and one that will come back to haunt him. As for his fundraising ability, Rothman is close to a million short of where Pallone is and well behind Andrews. So how does he make up the differnce when Andrews and Pallone continue to raise money hand over fist. The conventional wisdom has this race going to Andrews and Rothman has only recently even been discussed as a marginally serious candidate. In the end, I bet he does not run and risk losing his seat.
$2 Million in the bank
Makes you competitive. Second, you still don't refute nor acknowledge that Rothman will defeat Andrews in Hudson, Bergen, Essex and Passaic counties. The Andrews spin is the same we heard ten years ago. Can't lose to McGreevey. But he did lose. Pallone is an absolute unknown outside his district and his district has no impact in a statewide primary. Rothman is the right candidate with the right credentials. Andrews is a loser in the same strain as Florio. No personality and no support north of Camden County. Pallone's only claim to fame is the dollars and that isn't enough to win when he can't cite a single relevant county he can win outside that shore district.
Fist off, I didn't know this
Fist off, I didn't know this was gamble. Yeah it would be fun to see how much I would win ir lose but that's beside the point. This campaign for senate deat should not be a gamble. Who does the people want the most?? Who is trying there best to reresent the mind of the people and is not in it for power but for results. I leave the wuestion up to who would you want to be making your decsions. Look at what the csnididates have accomplished, what they want ot fix, and by their word, how many might actually accomplish it. I leave the question up to you, but putting aside money, friendhip, or another factor. If you met these people on the street, which one would you trust with your life???
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