May 10, 2006 - 3:05pm
Scenario of the Day
By Wally Edge
Tags: Joseph Oxley, Tom Kean
2662
If 2006 turns out to be the kind of bad Republican year some pundits are predicting -- and if the President's job approvals continue to decline -- it could mean defeat this November for U.S. Senate candidate Thomas Kean, Jr. and Congressman Michael Ferguson. That could set up a 2008 race for Congress in the seventh district between Linda Stender and Kean.
Contributors
Wally Edge
Biotech millionaire John Crowley is seriously considering bid for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2009 – although some GOP leaders ... >
Bob Torricelli
The Record announced yesterday that it was closing its Hackensack offices and "reinventing"itself. It was actually announcing its own ... >
Michael Patrick Carroll
NJ STARS, while failing in its intended purpose, nonetheless demonstrates the need for fundamental reform in NJ's high schools. >
Debbie Holtz
Another fiscal-cutting measure still lies on the Governor's desk -- it's the one that reduces spending by way of statutory tweaks to the ... >
Steve Lonegan
The 2009 New Jersey State Budget is not the stunning tribute to sound fiscal policy The Trenton insiders would have you believe, but just a ... >
Dr. Joseph Marbach
The budget proposed by Gov. Jon Corzine has produced myriad negative reactions, featuring various interests seeking to limit the impact of the cuts ... >
Rob Tornoe
So much for our promise to liberate Iraq, not to occupy it, and not to cart off its riches. >
Michael P. Riccards
Recently, I walked into a large movie theatre with my wife Barbara to see "Sex and the City," the long, long rendition of themes that ... >
Carla Katz
As the Presidential election draws closer and closer, we tend to focus our attention on the daily horse race between the candidates and lose sight of ... >
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Quote of the Day
July 3, 2008
"There was never any malice involved. I think it's clear that this was technical in nature. Now it’s just getting it resolved." -- Bergen County Democratic Organization spokesman Bill Maer, on a complaint filed against the BCDO by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.
-The Record, 07/03/08
Recent Press Releases
- Jul 3 2008
In the News
Read the expanded Wake Up Call, our summary of today’s news media coverage.
Today’s Must Reads:
Bob Torricelli is Mad at the Big, 'Mean' Bergen Record― THE MEDIA MOB
Sweeney-Buono alliance shakes up N.J. Senate― JONATHAN TAMARI
Stile: Pay to play helped to quell party insurgents ― CHARLES STILE
Newark’s Mayor Cory Booker at Midpoint ― DICK BENFIELD
MUCHAS MARGARITAS― ANDY UNANUE
NJ Economic Growth chief leaves office― Gary Rose
Candidates spend plenty of their money― Philadelphia Inquirer
News anchor sizing up run for governor― Star-Ledger
Political parties get right down to business― Daily Record
Ex-city official should give all of it back― Star-Ledger
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Talk about counting your chickens, W has never been that popular
Talk about counting your chickens, W has never been that popular in NJ and MF won his last election by 15%. The most likley scenario is that the State tax increase will depress Dem turnout and give TK (who is about tied with BM in the polls) an even better shot at winning in November. Remember, we MADE these congressional districts safe!
Okay, stop it. MF is in a safe district. Give it up, he's not
Okay, stop it. MF is in a safe district. Give it up, he's not going to lose any time soon unless he implodes himself. Until there is a big McGreevey/Toricelli-like scandal with MF, shut up.
It must really get Somerset Republican's goat that he's the ONLY
It must really get Somerset Republican's goat that he's the ONLY one who is calling the 7th District a "Safe" District. Ferguson is far from safe, and that's why his minions have already begun attacking Stender in the press. Compare that to Garrett in the 5th who has completely ignored Aronsohn.
And please, life member, stop with the pro-Kean spin. Kean has proved himself to be nothing but a paper tiger. Sure, the race will be closer than Corzine/Forrester, but I'd put money that Menendez wins by 6.
2006 might turn out to be a bad year for anyone currently in DC
2006 might turn out to be a bad year for anyone currently in DC if Republicans don't start using the power they have and Democrats continue to offer nothing but bitter whining. Kean verses Stender? That is almost a fair fight. Welcome back Roscoe. Figured you have been too busy tossing salads for Panter since last November's elections.
To be fair, Chuck Todd has the top 50 races ranked, and he doesn
To be fair, Chuck Todd has the top 50 races ranked, and he doesn't have any NJ districts in the top 50. He updates one of Senate, Gov, Prez, or House every week, and it's probably the best handicapping out there...
http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/house/
Hey Chris.....it's Ed (real tall guy). Are you still in NJ or a
Hey Chris.....it's Ed (real tall guy). Are you still in NJ or are you working for an out-of-state station now? What's the story?
Roscoe - I'm sorry, but MF is in a safe district.....check the numbers and the map.
As much as the dems think this is the year there gonna beat Ferg
As much as the dems think this is the year there gonna beat Ferguson I can't see it happening, Kean can spend 20mil and he's still going to lose.
Neither incumbent will lose.
Neither incumbent will lose.
Districts 7 and 12 are the two closest things to marginal..and t
Districts 7 and 12 are the two closest things to marginal..and this just means that Ferguson and Holt are guaranteed 58 percent of the vote instead of 70 or being unnopposed altogether. Bush's low approval numbers may have some very small impact on this race, but not enough for a Democrat upset. I suppose if Kean loses this Senate race and if Ferguson retires (or he decides to run for a seat in Montgomery County, MD) then Kean would be his likely successor in the House.
how 'bout Stender puts up a great fight, but loses 53/47...and K
how 'bout Stender puts up a great fight, but loses 53/47...and Kean Jr., fresh off a close loss of his own to Menendez challenges Fergie in the congressional primary, rather than take on Lautenberg in an '08 Senate general election.
SomersetRepublican-- yeah agree Ferg's still up about 10k voters
SomersetRepublican-- yeah agree Ferg's still up about 10k voters, but he might need to start turing out voters soon if the trend continues.
But there are some good things going on for Repubs statewide. Corzine's #'s for one. Also note, in Bergen at least, the high number of school budgets voted down...people getting fed up with all you high tax Dems? Looks like it. Plus Repubs are finally abandoning the "pay-to-play" message and focusing on what we are-- the party of the homeowner.
Ed- I thought you disappeared off the face of the earth after I
Ed-
I thought you disappeared off the face of the earth after I ran for school board and was chairman of our organization. I'm in Maryland...email me: pstchrisp@aol.com