Chuck Haytaian

There seems to be a general consensus among political insiders as to who won the Democratic U.S. Senate debate: Steve DeMicco.  Frank Lautenberg was less than impressive – not even close to his performance in previous debates against Millicent Fenwick, Pete Dawkins, Chuck Haytaian and Doug Forrester – but the debate was at 8PM on a Friday night, so it didn’t really matter.  That’s why DeMicco, Lautenberg’s consultant, was the winner – his campaign took quite a few hits for not engaging Rob Andrews in network TV debates, but it appears that was the right call.

If the reports are accurate – frankly, there has been so much confusion over the last six weeks that it’s hard to believe any of this – Republicans may have found a credible U.S. Senate candidate in Dick Zimmer. 

Legend has it that many State Senators view themselves as gubernatorial material, but historically incumbent New Jersey legislators are often unsuccessful in their campaigns for Governor. Over the last fifty years, only four incumbent legislators -- State Senators Malcolm Forbes (1957), Wayne Dumont (1965), Raymond Bateman (1977) and James E. McGreevey (1997) -- have won gubernatorial primaries, and all four have lost their general elections. The last time someone went directly from the Legislature to Governor was in 1928, when Morgan Larson, a Republican State Senator from Middlesex County, won. No incumbent member of the New Jersey State Assembly has ever been elected Governor.

U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg has never amassed huge approval numbers in public opinion polls, but he’s never lost an election either.

As he approached his first re-election campaign, Lautenberg was at a 36%-21% approval rating in a February 1988 Eagleton Institute poll; voters said they would re-elect Lautenberg over a Republican by a 37%-24% margin.  In that race, Lautenberg defeated retired Army General Peter Dawkins by a 54%-46% margin.