Frederick Madden

Assembly Democratic Executive Director Bill Castner is short listed for Rob Andrews' House seatSixteen Democrats are under consideration for the first district congressional seat that Rob Andrews is vacating to run for the U.S. Senate, including Camille Andrews, the Congressman’s wife, according to a list sent out today by South Jersey Democratic leader George Norcross.

On the official Norcross short list:

The Courier-Post has endorsed Shelley Lovett for state Senate, and Agnes Gardiner and Patricia Fratticcioli for Assembly in District 4, against incumbents Fred Madden and Paul Moriarty, and Democrat Sandra Love.  READ

The Philadelphia Inquirer has endorsed six State Senate candidates: Democratic incumbents Steve Sweeney in District 3, Fred Madden in District 4 and John Adler in District 6, Republican incumbent Diane Allen in District 7, Democrat Dana Redd in District 5, and Republican Phil Haines in District 8.  READ

The Gloucester County Times has endorsed the re-election of two Democratic legislators from the 4th district, State Sen. Fred Madden and Assemblyman Paul Moriarty.  For the open Assembly seat, they endorsed Republican Patricia Fratticcioli.  READ

Key South Jersey Democrats believe that they could emerge from the fall midterm elections with seven State Senate seats, giving them a formidable block if there leadership contests.  Four seats are locks: incumbents Stephen Sweeney, Frederick Madden, and John Adler, and Dana Redd, who is seeking Wayne Bryant’s seat in Camden County.   Democrats are very high on their chances to oust Republicans Nicholas Asselta and James “Sonny” McCullough, and see a possible pickup in the open eighth district, where their Senate candidate is Francis Bodine, a Republican Assemblyman until he switched parties last spring.

The bi-partisan consensus among New Jersey pundits seems to be that Assembly Republicans are not likely to be positioned to capture control of the lower house in 2007 -- but that while Democrats are also strongly favored to hold the Senate, GOP control -- or at least shared control -- is not impossible.

Republicans could potentially compete for Senate seats currently held by Democrats Frederick Madden (District 4), Ellen Karcher (District 12) and Paul Sarlo (District 36). They would need to win all three to win a majority, and two for a return to the shared control of 2002-03.

It would be substantially more difficult for the Republicans to compete against Senators Stephen Sweeney (District 3) and Joseph Coniglio (District 38). Democrats are also threatening to mount a strong challenge to Senator Bill Gormley (District 2), and for the seat of retiring Senator Joseph Palaia (District 11). Look for another highly competitive race in the 14th district if GOP Senator Peter Inverso retires.

GOP success will likely hinge on candidate recruitment. Their top choice in the fourth district -- if Madden doesn't seek re-election, Democrats would likely pick Assemblyman/Washington Township Mayor Paul Moriarty -- is state Administrative Law Judge George Geist, who spent twelve years in the Legislature before losing to Madden by just 63 votes in 2003. Against Karcher, Republicans want to run freshman Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck.

The strongest possible GOP contenders against Sarlo are former Assembly Majority Leader Paul DiGaetano, who left the Legislature in 2005 to run for Governor, and Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola -- but neither seem to be actively looking to run. Some Republicans list Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan as a possible candidate -- she wanted to run in 2003, but state Republicans preferred former Assemblyman John Kelly -- but she was weakened a bit by her losing bid in the '06 GOP primary for Bergen County Executive.

One interesting candidate against Sarlo would be Superior Court Judge Harold Hollenbeck, who will reach the mandatory retirement age of seventy in December 2008. Hollenbeck served as a State Senator from 1972 to 1974, and as a Congressman from 1977 to 1983 (he lost his seat to Bob Torricelli.) Hollenbeck now lives in Ridgewood -- his base was in Rutherford -- and would have to move back to South Bergen to make the race.