Jack Ciattarelli

Right now, it’s looking like a two-candidate race for Mike Ferguson’s seventh district House seat between Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the 30-year-old daughter of the former Governor. Somerset Republican insiders say that Assemblyman Peter Biondi and Freeholder Jack Ciattarelli will be the next to announce that they won’t run for Congress.

Union County has two candidates who are, at this point, second tier: Scotch Plains Mayor Martin Marks and former Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield. Both will need to show considerable fundraising success by the end of this month – there won’t be another report due until April – and then one of them will have to dominate the local endorsement game, where Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. is the biggest catch. Kean could stay out of the race – a message to Union County Republicans that Lance and Whitman are stronger candidates – or endorse Lance outright.

The retirements of Congressmen Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson offers the potential for an interesting game of political musical chairs.

In District 3, if John Adler goes to Congress, look for Louis Greenwald to replace him in the State Senate.  That will open up a sixth district Assembly seat that Cherry Hill might claim, although that decision will be made by party leaders.  Most of the Cherry Hill Councilmembers are potential candidates, and one interesting replacement for Greenwald would be Councilwoman Shelley Adler, whose husband could be a Congressman.  This is a safe Democratic district, and legislators picked at a Special Election Convention would be virtual shoo-ins for the November 2009 elections.