Jeff Van Drew

State Sen. Jeff Van Drew still hasn’t made a decision about whether he’s running for Congress, but as the April filing deadline approaches, he’s leaning towards sitting this one out.

“I will say that I do have an interest in being a representative for the second congressional district ,but I’m very aware and mindful of the fact that I just won a senate race and we’re in a uniquely challenging time in the state of New Jersey,” he said.  “I have to weigh that very, very seriously.” 

The new class of legislators isn’t even seated yet, but that won’t stop us from speculating about the Assembly election in 2009.

Granted, two years is a political eternity, and which party will hold an advantage in that time depends most heavily on who’s at the top of the ticket. But when the new Assemblymen and women take their places in Trenton early next year, there will be 25 freshmen – several from competitive districts. Those represent the best opportunity for each party to knock off some incumbents.

Right now, however, from this great distance, it doesn’t appear as though any new districts will come into the fold, or that control of either legislative body is likely to shift. Indeed, it’s more likely that 2009 will see a smaller number of districts in play.

Remember all those ethics complaints during the campaigns?  Wonder what happens to them?

We’ll see tomorrow, when the Joint Legislative Committee on Ethical Standards meets to rule on the five complaints that have been filed since the committee last met.  But if history is any guide, they’ll mostly be dismissed. 

While legislators who sit on the committee say that complaints occasionally have at least some level of validity, some say they’re filed more to get a headline in the heat of a campaign rather than pointing out a real, troubling ethical infraction.  They also say they’ve noticed it happening more often in recently, with candidates taking advantage of a committee – one with a reputation for being toothless and ineffective -- for their political ends.   

Indeed, 2007 was the year of the ethics complaint, with 10 filed so far- the most of any year on record, going back to 1972.  Five have been settled, all of which were dismissed.

State Sen. Ray Lesniak was the kingmaker in the race for Senate Majority LeaderThe surging south got a seat at the table today, with third district state Sen. Stephen Sweeney chosen as majority leader after a hard fought, emotional battle with state Sen. Paul Sarlo.

Although the decision-making process was closed and the official decision was unanimous, sources say that Sweeney had the support of 14 of the 23 member caucus. Backing Sweeney were the expected south Jersey contingent -- Jeff Van Drew, Jim Whelan, Fred Madden, Dana Redd and John Adler. But he also had support from Senators from the rest of the state -- Brian Stack, Sandra Bolden Cunningham, Barbara Buono, Nicholas Scutari, Bob Smith, Ray Lesniak, Joe Vitale and Loretta Weinberg.

2007 was a Republican year in New Jersey, thanks to some significant local gains, a well played game of defense, the defeat of two ballot referendums, and the growing insignificance of Governor Jon “Hold Me Accountable” Corzine. It is arguably the first Republican year in New Jersey, albeit marginally, since 1997.

Republicans ousted State Senator Ellen Karcher in the 12th, has a net gain of two Assembly seats – defeating two-term Democrat Michael Panter in Monmouth County and winning back the 8th district seat they lost earlier this year when Francis Bodine switched parties to run for the Senate. The GOP won both Assembly seats in District 2, holding Frank Blee’s seat and picking up the one Jim Whelan vacated.

PoliticsNJ.com made a trip up to the ivory tower and asked three oft-quoted political analysts for their takes on tomorrow’s legislative elections: Ingrid Reed, Director of the Eagleton Institute’s New Jersey Project; Joe Marbach, political science professor and acting Dean at Seton Hall University; and Brigid Harrison, political science professor at Montclair State.

A Zogby poll conducted for the Press of Atlantic City and Richard Stockton State College shows Democrat James Whelan leading GOP State Sen. Sonny McCullough by a 50%-37% margin, and the race between Republican State Sen. Nicholas Asselta and Democrat Jeff Van Drew to be a statistical dead heat.

Van Drew, a three-term Assemblyman, leads Asselta by a 45%-42% margin. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5%.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman and Oklahoma U.S. Rep. Tom Cole says he isn’t especially worried about New Jersey in 2008, even though Republican Congressmen will likely be playing defense in at least three districts and his party is not poised to gain a single seat.

Instead, Cole said, problems with the state legislature will eventually take a toll on the Democratic Party’s popularity, translating into future vulnerabilities.

The race for State Senator in District 2 is a Toss-Up, while Nicholas Asselta and Ellen Karcher could be headed for defeat, according to a new PoliticsNJ.com Battleground '07 analysis.  READ

Anne Milgram is going to be busy in the first district.

Just before state Senator Nicholas Asselta and his Assembly running mates were scheduled to hold a press conference asking the Attorney General to investigate Democratic wheeling of campaign funds in the first district in 2005, Assembly Speaker Pro-Tempore Wilfredo Caraballo called on Milgram to investigate whether first district Republicans transferred money between their own campaign accounts to circumvent contribution limits.

The Republicans seized on a Tuesday investigative report from the Press of Atlantic City that showed the Camden County Democratic Committee circumventing campaign contribution caps two years ago by donating $400,000 to the Cape May Democratic Organization, which then went directly to an ad blitz in the Philadelphia television market on behalf of the Assembly campaigns of Jeff Van Drew and Nelson Albano.