Joseph Pennacc

Democrat: If Frank Lautenberg wins re-election, he will become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history. But to become the Democratic nominee in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the United States Senate since 1972, Lautenberg must first win a bitter primary contest against Rob Andrews, a ten-term Congressman from South Jersey who his 34 years his junior. The race is very much about Lautenberg’s age (84) – the controversy about the debates is a metaphor for the “Lautenberg is too old” campaign – and about Andrews’ record on Iraq (perhaps a little hawkish for some New Jersey Democrats). Lautenberg has more money and organizational support, although Andrews is competitive in the fundraising area and has added a few key endorsements (though not organization lines) in Central and North Jersey, and some important labor backing. Lautenberg has never been passive when it comes to political campaigns, and his TV commercials are hard-hitting. He needs to get through the next couple of weeks without a mistake that might highlight his age – clearly the reason he’d rather suffer news reports that he won’t debate than one about a stumble. Leans Lautenberg

Republican: The good news is that the GOP field has settled down -- it’s been almost a month since a new Republican candidate entered the race for the United States Senate; the bad news is that the three contenders – former Rep. Dick Zimmer, State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and Ramapo College professor Murray Sabrin – are having trouble raising money and diverting attention from the hot Democratic primary. With just a few weeks to go, Republican voters still don’t know who much about the candidates. The GOP primary is a contest between Zimmer and Pennacchio – and not Sabrin, the leader of Ron Paul’s New Jersey campaign; both have several important organization lines. Zimmer, who had been a prodigious fundraiser when he served in Congress in the 1990’s, needs to raise money quickly to secure the chance to run in the general election. Pennacchio needs to win a huge margin in his home county, Morris, which produces more votes in a Republican primary than any other county in the state. Toss-Up.