Matthew Milam

Most incumbents are favored to win re-election in the 2009 State Assembly elections, which bodes well for Speaker Joe Roberts’ re-election prospects. At the most, ten seats are in play – eight Democrats and two Republicans – and it will take some recruitment homeruns to substantially alter the political playing field next year. For the Republicans to win control of the Assembly, they would have to oust incumbents in Districts 1, 7, 14 and 36 – these eight seats would mean a split 40-40 Assembly – and knock out one incumbent from the safe list.

Democrats Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam are slightly more vulnerable in the first district because State Sen. Jeff Van Drew won’t be on the ballot. But the absence of State Sens. Diane Allen and Bill Baroni, who have not had coattails in the past, makes incumbent Democratic Assembly members even safer. In District 36, where Democrats Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer won surprisingly close re-election bids last year – Republicans could have an opportunity because there will be no Democrats from the Bergen County portion of the district on the ballot.

Former Republican State Senator Nicholas Asselta’s appointment to the state Board of Public Utilities effectively takes him out of the race for State Assembly in the first district next year – something that substantially boosts the Democrats prospects for re-electing incumbents Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam.  Asselta, who hinted he might consider a 2009 Assembly bid following his loss to Jefferson Van Drew last November, would have been an extremely formidable challenger against Albano and Milam, and might have helped bring in a second Assembly seat.

In his concession speech, State Senator Nicholas Asselta said that he would be back.  People who know him aren’t surprised by such a pledge; Asselta, his friends say, will be miserable when he’s out of office.  Don’t be surprised to see Asselta run for his old Assembly seat in 2009, when Jeff Van Drew isn’t on the ballot – he’d be a fairly formidable candidate against newly-elected Democrat Matthew Milam. Asselta could position himself for a Senate comeback if Van Drew falters – or moves on. 

He wouldn’t be the first politician to be forced to be happy with a consolation prize.