Michael Donohue

The new class of legislators isn’t even seated yet, but that won’t stop us from speculating about the Assembly election in 2009.

Granted, two years is a political eternity, and which party will hold an advantage in that time depends most heavily on who’s at the top of the ticket. But when the new Assemblymen and women take their places in Trenton early next year, there will be 25 freshmen – several from competitive districts. Those represent the best opportunity for each party to knock off some incumbents.

Right now, however, from this great distance, it doesn’t appear as though any new districts will come into the fold, or that control of either legislative body is likely to shift. Indeed, it’s more likely that 2009 will see a smaller number of districts in play.

A Zogby poll conducted for the Press of Atlantic City and Richard Stockton State College shows Democrat James Whelan leading GOP State Sen. Sonny McCullough by a 50%-37% margin, and the race between Republican State Sen. Nicholas Asselta and Democrat Jeff Van Drew to be a statistical dead heat.

Van Drew, a three-term Assemblyman, leads Asselta by a 45%-42% margin. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5%.

The Press of Atlantic City has endorsed Republicans Norris Clark and Michael Donohue for State Assembly in the first district, passing over incumbent Nelson Albano. READ

Anne Milgram is going to be busy in the first district.

Just before state Senator Nicholas Asselta and his Assembly running mates were scheduled to hold a press conference asking the Attorney General to investigate Democratic wheeling of campaign funds in the first district in 2005, Assembly Speaker Pro-Tempore Wilfredo Caraballo called on Milgram to investigate whether first district Republicans transferred money between their own campaign accounts to circumvent contribution limits.

The Republicans seized on a Tuesday investigative report from the Press of Atlantic City that showed the Camden County Democratic Committee circumventing campaign contribution caps two years ago by donating $400,000 to the Cape May Democratic Organization, which then went directly to an ad blitz in the Philadelphia television market on behalf of the Assembly campaigns of Jeff Van Drew and Nelson Albano.

The first district Republicans have seized on a new report from a Wall Street lawyer that says monetization could increase tolls by 150 percent.

The analysis by New York-based attorney Peter Humphreys, reported by the Associated Press this morning, said that issuing bonds to bring about a cash infusion would increase tolls in the long run. Although the details of the plan have not been made public by Gov. Corzine, Humphreys said that the average commuter on the Turnpike could wind up paying $2,400 a year in tolls.