Patrick Murray

Two independent polls released today on the race for United States Senator offer conflicting data on the question of Frank Lautenberg's ability, at age 84, to serve another six-year term: more than half the voters polled by Quinnipiac University say yes, while less more than two-thirds of Monmouth University/Gannett poll voters disagree.  Both polls have Lautenberg leading Republican Dick Zimmer by about the same margin.  Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth/Gannett poll, offers an explanation in his blog, which is worth the read.

Just 6% of New Jersey voters are closely following the race for U.S. Senate between Frank Lautenberg and Dick Zimmer: Getty Images Photo
A new  Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg leading GOP challenger Dick Zimmer 46%-36% -- the latest in a series of polls that show the four-term Democrat with a double digit lead.  The poll shows that just 45% of voters are showing interest in the Senate race, and just 6% are following it closely.  83% of New Jersey voters have a lot of interest in the race for President.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 8 points in a new Monmouth University/Gannett poll
Barack Obama leads John McCain in New Jersey by eight percentage points, 49%-41%, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today.  

“McCain has made some gains in New Jersey, which should not really be a surprise to anyone who has followed election polling in this state,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling, but have had problems maintaining that momentum.  Only once in the past ten years – the 2000 U.S. Senate race – has the Republican candidate continued to narrow the gap through election day.  We’ll have to wait and see if this is really a trend.”

Democratic lawyer Dennis Oury (left), whose indictment is expected to be announced today, with Freeholder David Ganz
Bergen County Republican Chairman Bob Yudin admits that, after a decade of Democratic gains, Bergen County will not likely return to the Republican bastion it once was.

His appeal to the voters in the upcoming freeholder and county clerk races is not to start a movement for total Republican control of the county, but to create a two-party system that he feels has been sorely lacking.  That the federal investigation of his Democratic counterpart, Joseph Ferriero, and Democratic lawyer Dennis Oury may have little effect alone on the local races, but that it underscores the need to bring the Republican Party out of the political wilderness.

“I think it’s very, very unfortunate for the people of Bergen County, and it shows what one party rule leads to. The residents of Bergen deserve a two party government and this has underlined how important that is,” he said.   “The corruption, the pay-to-play in Bergen County is systemic, and the only way to change this is to bring back the two party system. Elect republicans to at least share in the running of government.”

Even if he wanted to, Yudin would be hard pressed at this point to make this election a referendum on Ferriero.  Republican consultant Thom Ammirato has polled Ferriero’s name recognition in races past, and it has not exceeded nine percent – despite the Democratic power broker’s huge influence in the every day workings of county government.

Conservative Steve Lonegan is expected to seek the GOP nomination for Governor in 2009.
For years, conservative activist Steve Lonegan has been seen by the state's moderate, mainstream Republicans more as a thorn in the side than a boon to their party.

But after leaving office as the mayor of Bogota, the ever-controversial Lonegan has - at least on the surface - made nice with some of the party's more high profile members as he's dramatically increased his statewide profile.

Take the convention run shortly before the U.S. Senate primaries at the Trenton Marriot, where Americans for Prosperity - the anti-tax group whose New Jersey chapter Lonegan heads up - brought out a couple national Republican luminaries and a few New Jersey Republicans who typically aren't seen with Lonegan.

Once you got past the 3,000 pound fiberglass pig perched atop a trailer parked outside the hotel, you could meet not only some of the of the Republicans' most conservative legislators -- like Assembly members Michael Patrick Carroll, Richard Merkt, Allison Littell-McHose and State Sen. Gerald Cardinale. But also present were members of the new crop of Republican leadership like Tom Kean, Jr., Kevin O'Toole and Joe Kyrillos.

The convention came about six months after the November surprise defeat of two ballot initiatives that Lonegan fought hard against, including one to borrow money for stem-cell research. Political observers differ on how much credit Lonegan gets for the measures' defeat, but he was most vocal opponent, and became the face of the effort.