Richard Zimmer

Quinnipiac University will release results of a new poll tomorrow with head to head numbers in the Lautenberg-Zimmer U.S. Senate race, and approval ratings for Gov. Jon Corzine.

Tom Blakely (1961-2008)Political consultant Tom Blakely’s sudden death on Saturday left his New Jersey friends and colleagues shocked at the passing of a man who had realized success and who, at only 46-years-old, had the potential to achieve so much more.

“The best was ahead of him,” said state Sen. Kevin O’Toole, a friend of Blakely and a cousin by marriage.

Blakely’s rise to prominence in the behind-the-scenes political world began with the 1990 12th district Congressional campaign of Dick Zimmer, after strategist Larry Weitzner, who was the then Zimmer’s campaign manager, advised Zimmer to take him on as a field worker. Zimmer was so happy with his performance that he hired him as his district director after he was elected, and he eventually managed his unsuccessful Senate campaign against Robert Toricelli in 1996.

“He was utterly reliable, very pragmatic, and it set my mind at ease asking him to do something because I knew he would do it,” said Zimmer.

Congressman Christopher Smith will endorse Jack Kelly for Congress in the neighboring third district GOP primary, a move that insiders say is bugging his old friend, Jim Saxton.   Smith and Saxton have been allies since 1980, when Smith ousted a 13-term Democratic incumbent in a district that included Saxton’s hometown.  Saxton, an Assemblyman at the time, went to the State Senate in 1981, and after redistricting and the death of longtime GOP Congressman Edwin Forsythe, to Congress in 1984.  Saxton is backing Christopher Myers, the Deputy Mayor of Medford and a Vice President at Lockheed Martin.

Confessions of a Republican Operative: How to Rig an Election, written by Allen Raymond, to be released by Simon and Schuster on January 8, will take some shots at New Jersey political figures.  Raymond started out in politics as the campaign manager for Bill Martini's successful 1994 bid to unseat Democratic Congressman Herbert Klein, and then served as Martini's Chief of Staff.  (Martini is now a Federal Judge; Sharpe James' trial has been assigned to him.)  Raymond was also, briefly, the Executive Director of the New Jersey Republican State Committee, and worked for Dick Zimmer's campaign for Congress.

When then-Essex County Executive James Treffinger was indicted in 2002, there were allegations that his U.S. Senate campaign made dirty tricks calls on Super Bowl Sunday seeking support for Diane Allen, his primary rival.  Raymond was the consultant referred to in the Treffinger indictment, sources told PolitickerNJ.com.

David Plouffe, who is expected to serve as Barack Obama's campaign manager if he seeks the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, is well known to New Jerseyans as Bob Torricelli's campaign manager in his 1996 U.S. Senate race against Richard Zimmer. He later served as Deputy Chief of Staff to House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, and as Executive Director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

If November '08 turns out to be a contest between Obama and Rudy Giuliani, one small irony will be that both campaign managers will have worked against Zimmer in the 1996 Senate race. Michael DuHaime, who is running Giuliani's race, was a recent Rutgers graduate when he volunteered on the campaign of his father, Passaic County Freeholder Richard DuHaime, a conservative who challenged Zimmer in the Republican U.S. Senate primary.

Christopher Smith and Rush Holt are safe bets for re-election in 2006, and these two Congressmen -- who were initially given little chance to win -- overcame tough campaigns to win a second term. Thanks to some hard work and favorable treatment during redistricting, Smith and Holt have become House veterans.

It was assumed that Smith was simply a fluke. He was a neophyte who won a seat in Congress at age 27 against an incumbent under indictment. He defeated 13-term incumbent Frank Thompson, Jr., the Chairman of the House Administration Committee, by a 57%-41% margin and with just $79,000.

Smith's opponent was the best Democrats had to offer: Joseph Merlino, a former State Senate President and one of Trenton's most prolific vote getters. Richard Zimmer, the former Congressman, was the clear favorite to win back his old House seat against Holt, who had ousted Zimmer's Republican successor in 1998.

Both Smith and Holt won upset victories against incumbents weakened by national political scandals. For Smith, it was the Abscam scandal, when Thomspon was videotaped accepting bribes from FBI agents posing as Arab sheiks in a sting operation; for Holt, it was the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and the brief rendition of Twinkle, Twinkle Kenneth Starr sung on the House floor by Michael Pappas that ended the Republican's political career after just a single term.

Smith and Holt were political newcomers who lost congressional races before winning the second time around. Smith worked for a family sporting goods business and won 37% against Thompson in 1978. Holt directed the Plasma Lab at Princeton University and lost the Democratic primary for an open seat in 1996.

The districts of both Congressmen favored their opponents. In 1980, Smith was the only Republican to unseat a Democratic incumbent in a congressional district where Jimmy Carter outpolled Ronald Reagan. Two years later, prior to the existence of the bi-partisan Congressional Apportionment Commission, the Democratic legislature approved a redistricting plan that made the district even less favorable to Smith. Merlino was said to have drawn the map himself. The 12th district was heavily Republican, and Zimmer won it with ease three times.

Smith and Holt were both targeted for defeat by the party in control of Congress seeking to protect their majority. Both challengers had higher name identification than the incumbents. Merlino had sought the Democratic nomination for Governor in 1981, and Zimmer ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996.

Both Smith and Holt had ideologies that were not perfectly in sync with their districts. Smith was a cultural conservative in a liberal district; Holt was a liberal representing an fiscally conservative region of the state that provided pluralities to moderate Republican statewide candidates.

From their first day in Congress, Smith and Holt knew they had a tenuous hold on their congressional seats. They both worked hard, seemingly non-stop, in an effort to appeal to their constituents.

As congressional candidates, Merlino and Zimmer proved disappointing. Smith portrayed Merlino as an old-time, cigar-smoking political boss, an image that was enhanced when Merlino called Smith "Kid" in the presence of reporters. Holt painted Zimmer as a Newt Gingrich Republican. Smith and Holt exceeded the expectations of the political experts.

The Asbury Park Press reported today that FBI agents have raided the Western Monmouth Utility Authority and the home of WMUA Executive Director Frank Abate. Abate, a former Marlboro Councilman, won 32% of the vote as the Democratic candidate for Congress against Richard Zimmer in 1992. He was indicted in 1995 on charges that he tampered with election petitions, but the charges were eventually dropped.

One of the most exclusive clubs in New Jersey politics belongs to the group of three men who came within 1,000 votes of winning a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives: Norman Roth, Lindsay Rudd and Gene Boyle.

The closest House race this century was in 1956, when Roth, a Jersey City Republican, lost to three-term Democratic Congressman Alfred Sieminski (the last Democratic Congressman from New Jersey who went to Princeton) by a razor-thin 57 votes, a 44.97%-44.92% margin. (Two years later, Sieminski lost the Democratic primary to Cornelius Gallagher.)

In 1936, four-term GOP Congressman Fred Hartley, who became nationally prominent as the co-sponsor of the Taft-Hartley Act, survived a challenge from Democrat Rudd by just 665 votes -- 50.2%-49.6%. Hartley survived another close race in 1946 from a young Newark attorney and World War II veteran named Peter Rodino; he retired in 1948 and Rodino began a congressional career that lasted forty years.

Boyle, a 48-year-old former Passaic Valley Sewerage Commissioner who owned a popular restaurant in Clifton, came within 960 votes of winning a 1969 Special Election for Congress in the 8th district (the incumbent, Democrat Charles Joelson, resigned to become a Superior Court Judge). The winner was Democrat Robert Roe, the state Commissioner of Conservation and Economic Development in the cabinet of Governor Richard Hughes who had served as a Passaic County Freeholder and as Mayor of Wayne. The Democrat had been the heavy favorite and Boyle's near-win was much a result of GOP gubernatorial candidate William Cahill's coattails. Roe went on to serve 23 years in Congress without every having another tough race and chaired the powerful House Transportation and Public Works Committee. Boyle, who ran for office only once, died in 1991 at the age of 70.

(Technically, Richard Zimmer could be considered the fourth member of the club, since he lost a 2000 House race to incumbent Rush Holt by 651 votes. But Zimmer, who held the seat from 1991 to 1997, had already served in Congress.)

With the filing deadline less than one week away, the GOP has still not found a candidate to run against three-term Democratic Congressman Rush Holt. Republican County Conventions were held in Middlesex on Saturday and Mercer on Monday without selecting a candidate, but party leaders say they hope to find someone in time to appear at the Monmouth convention this weekend. Holt won the seat in a surprise upset against freshman GOP Congressman Michael Pappas in 1998 and was re-elected in 2000 by just 551 votes against former Congressman Richard Zimmer. After redistricting made the district far more Democratic-friendly, Holt won 62% against a much-heralded Republican challenger, former Secretary of State DeForest "Buster" Soaries in 2002, and 60% in 2004 against former College Republican National Chairman Bill Spadea.

If Jon Corzine's U.S. Senate appointment creates a vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives, look for a Special Election Primary on March 28 and a Special Election on May 16. Several lawyers familiar with Title 19 say that the state election law is somewhat ambiguous, but it appears Corzine, as Governor, has the option of bypassing the Special Election -- a system used in most other states -- and leaving the seat vacant until a November Special Election, on the same day as the General Election.

New Jersey has not had a Special Election for Congress since 1950. House seats vacated when William Cahill (in January 1970) and James Florio (in January 1990) remained vacant until the November General Election, as did the vacancies caused by the deaths of Edwin Forsythe (in March 1984) and James Howard (in March 1988). Corzine will need to decide whether the right of 647,000 citizens to have representation in Congress for ten months is worth the expense of two additional elections. Corzine's decision could be based on where he chooses to create a vacancy.

If he appoints Robert Menendez to the U.S. Senate, there is a clear front runner for his 13th district House seat: outgoing Assembly Speaker Albio Sires. Corzine has already made a personal contribution to Sires' federal campaign account, and the simplicity of the transition -- both in a primary and general -- could make issuing a writ of special election more palatable.

In other districts, the line of succession is murkier. If he sends Rob Andrews to the Senate, South Jersey Democrats will need to decide whether the seat goes to State Senator Stephen Sweeney or to Assembly Budget Committee Chairman Louis Greenwald. The two could fight it out in a primary, but Camden Democrats tend to handle family fights like these indoors, without the unpleasanries of an election. (Camden Democrats haven't had a rip roaring primary since 1979.) Still, Andrews has hinted that he's either running for the Senate or nothing; that might mean Democrats will have to pick between Sweeney and Greenwald anyway. Republicans can't compete in this district.

There is also no clear successor to Frank Pallone. The Democratic farm system is much stronger in the Middlesex County portion of the district, but Monmouth County Democrats will be anxious to hold the seat. Monmouth has the larger share of the sixth district population, but there are more Democratic primary voters in Middlesex -- which could make the line in Plainfield (Union County) a critical factor in choosing a candidate. Middlesex County has not had a Congressman since 1992, when a new map placing incumbents Pallone and Bernard Dwyer in the same district forced Dwyer's retirement. Possible Middlesex candidates include: State Senators Barbara Buono and Robert Smith (who challenged Pallone in the 1992 primary and last year divested a federal campaign account worth more than $100,000), and Assemblyman John Wisniewski. In Monmouth, Democrats could run Maggie Moran, a Democratic strategist who served as State Director of Corzine's Senate office; Belmar Mayor Kenneth Pringle or Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider -- or they could import State Senator Ellen Karcher or Assemblyman Michael Panter, whose legislative district includes parts of the 6th C.D. Karcher grew up in Sayreville, where her father and grandfather served in the State Assembly. Assmeblyman Upendra Chivukula, who lives in the one Somerset County town in this district, wants the seat, but his endorsement of Menendez in the Senate race limits his chances. This a Democrat-leaning district (Pallone won 69% in 2004, John Kerry won 57%); Monmouth County Sheriff Joseph Oxley might be the Republican candidate.

If Corzine decides the next U.S. Senator is Rush Holt, the new Governor might be more hesistant to call a Special Election -- Holt is safe in the 12th district, but it is potentially more competitive (Kerry won 54% in 2004, his lowest percentage in any Democratic House district) if he is not the candidate. Democrats would have to pick between a huge field of potential candidates, including: Karcher and Panter from Monmouth; Trenton Mayor Douglas Palmer, Democratic State Chairwoman (and incoming Assembly Majority Leader) Bonnie Watson Coleman, and Assemblyman Reed Gusciora in Mercer; Lambertville Mayor David Del Vecchio (who ran a strong campaign for this seat in 1996), the Hunterdon County Democratic Chairman; and Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein from Middlesex. The race would not be a slam-dunk for Democrats, if the GOP could find the right candidate, and if the national political environment improves for them. Possible Republican candidates include two former Congressmen, Richard Zimmer and Michael Pappas. Zimmer gave up the seat in 1996 to run for U.S. Senate and was replaced by Pappas, who lost to Holt in 1998. Zimmer held Holt to a 500-vote margin in 2000. Zimmer practics law in Washington, and Pappas is currently the Regional Adminisrator for the Small Business Administration in New York. Other contenders include: State Senator Joseph Kyrillos, the ex-GOP State Chairman who ran against Pallone in 1992, or former State Senators Richard LaRossa and Jack Sinagra. Republicans could also run a candidate with the ability to self-fund their race, like millionaire Steve Distler of Princeton or Tammy Murphy of Rumson, whose husband was Corzine's partner at Goldman Sachs. One interesting candidate: Douglas Forrester, whose high name I.D. would help in a Special Election, if he has another $5 million available for one more race.