Waiting for a chance to run
By Wally EdgeFrank Lautenberg is running for re-election, so the question of contested primaries for open House seats may be a moot issue. But if the 83-year-old U.S. Senator changes his mind, its possible that a number of Democratic Congressmen could take a shot – perhaps their final shot – at a seat in the United States Senate.
Since most New Jersey congressional districts are not necessarily competitive, it could be up to Democratic primary voters (if it even gets that far) to decide who the next Congressman would be. And in each district, there is no shortage of people who would be interested in going to Congress.
District 1: If Rob Andrews runs for the U.S. Senate, look for a contest between State Senator Stephen Sweeney, the de fact political boss of southwestern New Jersey, and Assembly Budget Committee Chairman Louis Greenwald. The two expressed interest in late 2005, when Andrews was a possible candidate for Jon Corzine’s Senate seat.
District 6: A Senate bid by Frank Pallone could set up a contest between Democrats in Middlesex and Monmouth counties – a match up that would favor Middlesex, if the party organization could agree on a candidate. Look for State Senator Barbara Buono to be the front runner, although Edison Mayor Jun Choi and Assemblyman John Wisniewski – or Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula, who comes from Somerset but represents a large part of Middlesex County – could run as well. That could create an opening for a Monmouth candidate, like State Senator Ellen Karcher and Assemblyman Michael Panter (who both technically live in the twelfth district). And Corzine could back his Deputy Chief of Staff, Maggie Moran, who expressed interest in succeeding Pallone in the past.
District 8: The conventional wisdom has been that Bill Pascrell, Jr. wants his son, lobbyist and Passaic County Counsel Bill Pascrell III, to succeed him, but in recent years, insiders have viewed that as increasingly less likely. Look at Passaic County Sheriff Jerry Speziale as a possible candidate, along with Paterson Mayor Joey Torres and Assemblyman Gary Schaer. A split in Passaic could help an Essex candidate, like Assemblyman John McKeon. Former Governor Richard Codey lives in this district, but don't expect him to become a freshman Congressman.
District 9: Watch for a Democratic primary between State Senator Paul Sarlo and the uber-ambitious Mayor of Englewod, Michael Wildes; Wildes began raising money two years ago, just in case, and has
$514,594 in a federal account. And don’t count out State Senator Loretta Weinberg, who has a huge base in a Democratic primary, or Steven Goldstein, who runs Garden State Equality.District 12: Rush Holt’s bid for the U.S. Senate would open up what is perhaps the only potentially competitive Democratic House seat in the state. Look at Karcher and Panter from the Monmouth portion of the district, Trenton Mayor Douglas Palmer and Assemblyman Reed Gusciora from Mercer, or Chivukula from Somerset.
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Syndicate
District 1
John Adler had been building a war chest for the 2008 Lautenberg seat as far back as 2003 but relented when it appeared sure that Lautenberg was running. I'd put him ahead of Greenwald even in the house primary column, and it look as if Andrews, whose work on the Iraq War and other initiatives has been especially impressive of late, would be the establishment choice for Lautenberg's seat. Incidentally, there are many, many candidates waiting (more than just the heavyweights Greenwald and Sweeney) for Andrews' House seat if/once he leaves for the U.S. senate.
Greenstein will run in the 12th
She will run in the 12th if Rush moves up. With Monroe and Plainsboro, she is a strong contender.
Adler's Congressional District
John Adler would be hardpressed to run a primary for Rob Andrew's congressional seat given that Cherry Hill is in the 3rd Congressional District, not the 1st.
Mea Culpa
Non-contributing trolls such as RUKiddinMe aside...
Aces:Yes, you're right about Adler in the 3rd district and Andrews being in the 1st in the house districting. My fault. I was inadvertently thinking about Greenwald in terms of a US senate run rather than house run; Greenwald, in an interview I saw about a year ago on NJN, professed no interest in such a run, while Adler had been building a war-chest and would perhaps outrank him for such a run since he is the state senator, rather than assemblyman, from the 6th. Adler, of course, has already run for the district 3 house seat years ago when he lost to Saxton.
PocketAces - Give Marty a Break
He's not all that bright and the information about Adler's Congressional District was not listed on his anti-Burlington County GOP talking points. Marty it looks like you don't know anything that your master don't tell you first. My opinion - Mr. Sweeney goes to Congress.
Actually...
Technically, just because Adler lives in the third district this does not disqualify him from running in the first. The Constitution only mandates that a U.S. representative live in his district's state, not necessarily in the district itself (1). For this reason, Reed Gusciora is considering a (futile) run against Chris Smith in the fourth district. Moreover, to bring up a more practical example that comes to mind, the now retired representative of HI-02, Ed Case, did not live within the bounds of his district. I don't know why Adler would want to represent the first district--other than the fact that it would be much easier to win than the third--but should the fancy strike him, there'd be nothing legally to stop him.
1. Fowler, LF. (1996) Political Science and Politics. 29(3):430-434.
Interesting comment on Ellen Karcher, Wally ...
You are very cognizant that she lives on the 12th District and not the 6th District side of the line in Marlboro (divided between the two districts), yet you ignored the impact of divided municipalities on the issue of district contiguity in your last post on Congressional redistricting ...
pennquaker
You are 100% correct. Jim Saxton ran and won and then moved into the old 13th District. Additionally, Mike Ferguson ran from outside the district (in one of his campaigns) and then moved into the current 7th. So, Adler could run in the 1st. Some of his current Senate district overlaps the post-2001 congressional redistricting map for the 1st.
gerrymandering
doxieman122: I agree with you 100%, I think splitting municipalities for Congressional districts and Legislative Districts is a crock. Sometimes it may be necessary, but that cannot be the case with Marlboro.
I agree, Mr. Democrat, but ...
Ironically, it is the Supreme Court case named after Ellen Karcher's dad, the late Alan Karcher, former Assembly speaker -- Daggett v. Karcher -- on New Jersey's 1980s congressional redistricting that has been interpreted as forcing municipalities to be split for equal population purposes.
My decision
That's right. I was the defendant in that case. I love my daughter, Ellen, but I must say that Linda Greenstein is a better pick for Congress in the 12th. I knew Linda when I was Mercer County Democratic Chair and remain very impressed with her--even from beyond the grave.
Interesting...
My grandparents said that they personally know Ellen Karcher's father because he lives in their neighborhood in Marlboro...they're so grateful to know some Democrats in such an otherwise heavily Republican vicinity. Just thought I'd bring it up for the halibut :-).