What if Zimmer had won?

Christie Whitman still narrowly defeats Jim McGreevey

"And in New York City, some millionaire who used to live in Summit is talking about running for Mayor after Michael Bloomberg leaves office next year."

Who is the millionaire?

Didn't make the connection.  Thanks!

Veritas vos Liberabit
"Collecting more taxes than absolutely necessary is legalized robbery." - Calvin Coolidge

It’s a Wonderful Life, Jim Florio

In 1990, newly elected Governor Jim Florio decided to raise taxes by $2.8 billion. Ten years later, the aftershock of the Florio tax increase is still felt throughout New Jersey politics. The ramifications of the tax hike engulfed the careers of dozens of politicians, both in New Jersey and across the country. But imagine, just for a moment, that the great tax revolt of the early 1990’s never happened. How would the political landscape of the last decade been altered if Jim Florio had never raised taxes? Here’s our version of the story:

1990: Early in his first year as the new Governor of New Jersey, Jim Florio had lunch with Joe Doria, a Hudson County legislator who had just become the new Speaker of the State Assembly. Florio explained that he needed additional revenue to balance the state budget and that he was considering some tax increases. Doria counseled his fellow Democrat that a tax hike might not be a prudent move, and perhaps they should pursue other budget moves. Finally, Florio agreed.

In the November election, Democrat Bill Bradley wins a third term in the U.S. Senate, trouncing former Somerset County Freeholder Christine Todd Whitman with 71% of the vote, carrying all 21 counties. National political pundits, who had already touted Bradley as a potential presidential candidate 1992, started calling him the front runner.

Democrats picked up a Republican State Senate seat in the 1st district, where Assemblyman Edward Salmon defeated appointed GOP Senator Jim Cafiero in a Special Election for the seat vacated by Jim Hurley. In a Special Election for an Assembly seat in District 35, appointed Democratic Assemblyman Cyril Yannarelli defeated his Republican challenger, Frank Catania.

1991: In a major victory for the Florio Administration, the Democrats easily hold on to both houses of the state legislature. Following reapportionment, the Democrats lose two Senate seats and three Assembly seats.

Republican John Dimon wins the new 30th district seat in Burlington and Ocean counties, and former Assemblyman Louis Kosco defeats two-term Democratic Senator Paul Contillo in the 38th district. In the 13th district, GOP Assemblyman Joe Kyrillos defeated appointed Senator Jim Phillips. Democrat John Adler defeated four-term Republican Senator Lee Laskin in the 6th district. Assembly Majority Leader John Paul Doyle held the seat of retiring Democratic Senator John Russo in the 9th district, and Assemblyman Bob Franks, the GOP State Chairman, won the 22nd district seat of Republican Senator Don DiFrancesco, who was appointed to the Casino Control Commission.

In the Assembly, Republicans picked up a seat in the 1st district where Republican John Gibson defeated Democratic Assemblyman Raymond Batten, and picked up two seats in the 11th district. In District 36, Assemblyman John Kelly and his running mate, former Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano, lost to incumbents Thomas Duch and Louis Gill.

1992: Bill Bradley wins the Democratic nomination for President, and easily unifies the Democratic Party by choosing one of his primary opponent for the Vice Presidential nomination. Bradley and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton defeat the Republican incumbents, George Bush and Dan Quayle, carrying New Jersey by a solid margin.

The surprise retirement of Republican Congressman Matthew Rinaldo creates a spirited contest for the open 7th district House seat. Bob Franks, serving his first year in the State Senate, declines to run, and the nomination goes to his colleague, State Senator Louis Bassano. With Bradley at the top of the ticket, the Democrats pick up Rinaldo’s seat, electing Leonard Sendelsky, a Woodbridge developer.

After years of losing money, an obscure central New Jersey radio station, 101.5, switches to an all country music format, and an ally of Hudson County Executive Bob Janiszewski easily wins the special election for Mayor of Jersey City.

1993: As New Jersey Democrats prepare for the Inaugural festivities, some local party leaders privately express their disappointment at the lack of Garden State residents named to top federal posts. President-elect Bradley resigns from the U.S. Senate and Governor Florio must appoint someone to fill the vacancy. This means that a Special Election for the remaining four years of Bradley’s term will be held in November, at the same time Florio runs for re-election. Congressman Bob Torricelli actively lobbies for the seat, but Florio gives the appointment to his state Attorney General, Robert Del Tufo, a former U.S. Attorney and one-time gubernatorial candidate.

Florio seems to be in good shape for re-election, with high approval ratings and low negatives. He faces only token opposition in the primary from an unknown postal worker from Monmouth County. Former state Attorney General Cary Edwards won the Republican gubernatorial nomination, defeating State Senators Bill Gormley and Gerald Cardinale, and former State Senator Brian Kennedy.

Senator Del Tufo settled into life in Washington and Congressman Torricelli seriously considered challenging the appointed Senator in the Democratic primary, since he would not have to give up his House seat to run. Just before the filing deadline, Torricelli announced that he would not run for the Senate, allowing Del Tufo to run unopposed. In the Republican primary, Assembly Minority Leader Chuck Haytaian became the Republican nominee for U.S. Senator, defeating Congressman Dick Zimmer in the GOP primary.

In the general election, Florio wins a second term with 57% of the vote, and Del Tufo defeats Haytaian by a 52%-48% margin.

Among the new State Senators elected in 1993 are: Republican Assemblyman Frank LoBiondo, who defeats incumbent Senator Edward Salmon in the 1st district; Democratic Assemblyman Fred Scerni, who wins the 2nd district seat of Bill Gormley over Republican Freeholder Kenneth LeFevre; Democratic Assemblyman Skip Cimino, who won the seat of retiring Senator Francis McManimon in the 14th district; and former GOP Assemblywoman Elizabeth Randall, who succeeded Cardinale in the 39th district. Senate Minority Leader John Dorsey survives a close call against former Democratic Assemblyman Gordon MacInness.

The retirement of Chuck Haytaian sparks a crowded field for his 23rd district Assembly seat that is won by a former Executive Director of the Republican State Committee, Peter Verniero.

1994: Democrats maintain their majorities in the Congress as voters voice approval of President Bradley. Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg wins re-election to a third term, defeating Congressman Dick Zimmer.

Zimmer’s open House seat in the 12th district is won by 1990 Senate candidate Christine Todd Whitman, who defeated State Senator John Bennett in the GOP primary.

Republicans picked up two House seats: Freshman 7th district Congressman Leonard Sendelsky is defeated by Assemblyman Richard Bagger, and former State Senator Bill Gormley wins the open seat of retiring 2nd district Congressman Bill Hughes. Congressman Herb Klein wins re-election in the 8th district against Republican Bill Martini. Following the death of Republican Congressman Dean Gallo, Senate Minority Leader John Dorsey wins the 11th district House seat, and a Republican Convention appoints Assemblyman Rodney Frelinghuysen to the State Senate.

In Essex County, Governor Florio referees an intra-party dispute and Democrat Thomas Giblin easily wins election as County Executive. East Orange Mayor Cardell Cooper joins the Florio cabinet as Commissioner of Environmental Protection.

1995: Democrats maintain control of the State Assembly in a low turnout election. Following the retirement of Maureen Ogden, Essex County Freeholder Jim Treffinger is elected to the State Assembly. Assembly Speaker Joe Doria doesn’t seek re-election, and is later appointed Secretary of State in the Florio Administration as a reward for advising the Governor to stay clear of any tax major tax increases; his Assembly seat is won by an up-and-coming Wall Street banker and former Gary Hart coordinator, Democrat Bret Schundler. Joseph Vitale is elected Mayor of Woodbridge.

1996: President Bradley easily wins New Jersey in his successful re-election campaign against Senator Bob Dole, but Senator Bob Del Tufo is narrowly defeated for a second term by millionaire businessman Michael Francis, a top Republican fundraiser who bested former Congressman Dick Zimmer and former State Senator Brian Kennedy in the GOP primary. Following the death of State Senator William Haines, Assemblyman Bob Shinn is elected to the State Senate. New Jerseyan Douglas Berman becomes the White House Chief of Staff, and Raymond Lesniak succeeds the late Robert Wilentz as Chief Justice of the New Jersey Supreme Court.

1997: Governor Florio completes his second term with high approval ratings, and the open gubernatorial election creates a large field of potential candidates for the Democratic nomination: Assembly Speaker Jim McGreevey, State Senate President Daniel Dalton, Congressman Bob Torricelli, and state Attorney General Michael Murphy. On the Republican side, Congresswoman Christine Todd Whitman, Assembly Minority Leader Jack Collins, Bergen County Executive Pat Schuber, and former State Senator Brian Kennedy all enter the gubernatorial contest. Torricelli and Whitman win their primaries.

In the general election, Torricelli runs a positive campaign featuring endorsements from Bradley and Florio, while Whitman goes negative early at the suggestion of her brother, Dan Todd, the campaign manager. Torricelli defeats Whitman by a wide margin, as Democrat continues to control the legislature.

Woodbridge Mayor Joseph Vitale won the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Larry Weiss, and Assemblyman Richard Kamin defeated Bob Littell in the 24th District State Senate primary. In the 20th district, Democrat Neil Cohen wins a full term in the State Senate, and in the 4th district, Assemblyman Anthony Marsella holds Dalton’s Senate seat for the Democrats.

1998: Following shocking allegations that he engaged in an improper relationship with an intern, Vice President Bill Clinton resigned his office and President Bradley appointed Tennessee Senator Albert Gore to serve as Vice President.

The Clinton scandal hurt the Democrats in the 1998 elections: GOP Assemblyman Jim Treffinger defeated three-term Democratic Congressman Herb Klein in the 8th district, and in the 6th district, Michael Ferguson, a community college Professor, ousted five-term incumbent Frank Pallone, Jr. State Senator Gabe Ambrosio won the 9th district House seat vacated by Torricelli, and in Paterson, Paterson Mayor Bill Pascrell, Jr. was defeated in his bid for re-election by Councilman Martin Barnes.

1999: Republicans win control of the State Assembly when voters express their outrage over Governor Torricelli’s profits in personal stock deals. In a Special Election in the 36th district, appointed Senator Thomas Duch lost to Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan. Woodbridge Mayor Joseph Vitale declines to seek re-election in order to concentrate on his State Senate post, and former Assembly Speaker Jim McGreevey succeeds him. Former Assembly Speaker Joe Doria, widely credited among Democrats for stopping Jim Florio from raising taxes, is elected Mayor of Bayonne. Governor Torricelli fills three seats on the state Supreme Court, naming former Attorney General Michael Murphy, State Senate President Thomas Foy, and in a surprise gesture of bi-partisanship, Bergen Republican County Chairman Berek Don.

2000: Senator Frank Lautenberg retires from the U.S. Senate after three terms, and Jon Corzine, a liberal Wall Street mega millionaire quickly joins the race. National and State Democratic leaders, desperate to find a candidate who can hold the seat, convince former Governor Jim Florio to run.

On the Republican side, former Governor Thomas Kean and Congresswoman Christie Whitman both expressed interest in the race, but in the end declined to run. The leading GOP candidates are State Senate Minority Leader Bob Franks, a fundraising powerhouse with considerable clout, and 2nd District Congressman Bill Gormley, who has a strong base and organizational strength. Gormley is expected to be replaced in Congress by a close political ally, State Senator Frank LoBiondo, and there is speculation that more than 100 Republicans have moved to the 22nd district to run for Franks’ seat in the State Senate.

In the presidential contest, Texas Governor George Bush is expected to face Vice President Albert Gore after tough contests for the nomination. And finally, in New York, First Lady Ernestine Schlant Bradley is expected to become the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senator.

   Donnie D would still have had to drop out in a race for governor under the "what if" scenario.

   The basic problem with this kind of discussion is that the 1996 election wasn't that close, so changing the result takes a giant suspension of disbelief unless you can suggest a major  external  event changing the result.

   For example, you can come up with some interesting alternatives if a Republican other than Christie Whitman had been elected governor in 1993. Or if the truth about Jum McGreevey had become known before he was elected governor. Those are not farfetched to imagine. But for an election to change by double digits for no apparent reason is hard to accept. Yeah, imagine if Barry Goldwater or George McGovern had been elected President. Wouldn't that have been interesting? But it wasn't going to happen.