April 29, 2008 - 2:24pm
Assembly Battleground 2009
By Wally EdgeMost incumbents are favored to win re-election in the 2009 State Assembly elections, which bodes well for Speaker Joe Roberts’ re-election prospects. At the most, ten seats are in play – eight Democrats and two Republicans – and it will take some recruitment homeruns to substantially alter the political playing field next year. For the Republicans to win control of the Assembly, they would have to oust incumbents in Districts 1, 7, 14 and 36 – these eight seats would mean a split 40-40 Assembly – and knock out one incumbent from the safe list.
Democrats Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam are slightly more vulnerable in the first district because State Sen. Jeff Van Drew won’t be on the ballot. But the absence of State Sens. Diane Allen and Bill Baroni, who have not had coattails in the past, makes incumbent Democratic Assembly members even safer. In District 36, where Democrats Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer won surprisingly close re-election bids last year – Republicans could have an opportunity because there will be no Democrats from the Bergen County portion of the district on the ballot.
No Assembly retirements have been announced at this point, although John Rooney, a Republican from Bergen County, has hinted that he won’t seek re-election to the seat he has held since winning a 1983 special election.
Four legislators are on the primary ballot this year, and there could be some changes in Trenton by January: State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio is running for the U.S. Senate, State Sen. John Adler is seeking a House seat in the third district, and in District 7, there could be a general election contest between State Sen. Leonard Lance and Assemblywoman Linda Stender. All four come from safe districts.
The greatest threat to many of the incumbents comes in primary elections. Keep an eye on Harvey Smith and Anthony Chiappone in Hudson, and on Valerie Huttle and Gordon Johnson in Bergen.
Contributors
Wally Edge
One of the classic stories of the New Jersey Legislature in 1968 were allegations that a Newark Assemblyman wanted to cancel a hearing on organized ... >
Bob Torricelli
The Record announced yesterday that it was closing its Hackensack offices and "reinventing"itself. It was actually announcing its own ... >
Michael Patrick Carroll
NJ STARS, while failing in its intended purpose, nonetheless demonstrates the need for fundamental reform in NJ's high schools. >
Debbie Holtz
Another fiscal-cutting measure still lies on the Governor's desk -- it's the one that reduces spending by way of statutory tweaks to the ... >
Steve Lonegan
The 2009 New Jersey State Budget is not the stunning tribute to sound fiscal policy The Trenton insiders would have you believe, but just a ... >
Dr. Joseph Marbach
The budget proposed by Gov. Jon Corzine has produced myriad negative reactions, featuring various interests seeking to limit the impact of the cuts ... >
Rob Tornoe
Michael P. Riccards
Recently, I walked into a large movie theatre with my wife Barbara to see "Sex and the City," the long, long rendition of themes that ... >
Carla Katz
As the Presidential election draws closer and closer, we tend to focus our attention on the daily horse race between the candidates and lose sight of ... >
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Quote of the Day
July 6, 2008
"I do not." -- James Laurie, an 18-year-old Brookdale Community College student, asked if he knew who Dick Zimmer was.
-Star-Ledger, 07/06/08
Recent Press Releases
- Jul 4 2008
In the News
Read the expanded Wake Up Call, our summary of today’s news media coverage.
Today’s Must Reads:
Trump wonders why Corzine left the Senate ― CHARLES STILE
Bob Torricelli is Mad at the Big, 'Mean' Bergen Record― THE MEDIA MOB
Sweeney-Buono alliance shakes up N.J. Senate― JONATHAN TAMARI
Stile: Pay to play helped to quell party insurgents ― CHARLES STILE
Newark’s Mayor Cory Booker at Midpoint ― DICK BENFIELD
MUCHAS MARGARITAS― ANDY UNANUE
NJ Economic Growth chief leaves office― Gary Rose
Candidates spend plenty of their money― Philadelphia Inquirer
News anchor sizing up run for governor― Star-Ledger
Political parties get right down to business― Daily Record
PolitickerNJ.com Jobs
Syndicate
Optimistic for the Democrats.
This list assumes the GOP gubernatorial candidate will be the same dull white bread "moderate" we have run in previous years. Fortunately, that won't be the case, putting into play seats like 3, 4, 6, 18, 19, 22 and 38.
Republicans are not only going to win the Assembly in 2009, but they will win it by a big margin. That will be Jon Corzine's final legacy to our state and the ultimate repudiation of his ultra-liberal agenda.
14 Will be Competitive If...
Jack Rafferty, Hamilton's resurrected ex-mayor runs. Him running up a big win in Hamilton could finally end it for Greenstein.
I think the GOP will take back the Governor's office. The biggest problem for Corzine is that there is a general sense that he has failed to grow the state and in fact has done more damage than good. It will not be that NJ suddenly is ultra-conservative, but much like Ronald Reagan ousted Jimmy Carter in 1980, incompetence, frustration and lack of vision will end the Corzine administration. And my guess is much like in 1980 with Tip O'Neill and Congress, Assembly and Senate Democrats will be happy to see Johnny Boy go.
The only thing that may save the Democrats is a primary challenge for Corzine from someone more conservative than him.
You can have all the money in the world but if you have no message you cannot win. With the polarity of the Bush administration gone soon (thats ALL that the NJDems have had, havent you noticed?) and the right candidate Jon Corzine will be lucky to come within six points.
14th and 2nd
yeah, I'd put D'Angelo in 14th as Leans D, not Likely D.
With Baroni and Rafferty working hard, R's could pick up that seat.
2nd District are probably the most likely pick-ups though.
Do as Rothenberg...
... and just make the graphic the competitive ones because this is too hard to read.
From What I hear...
Amodeo and Pollistina are pretty well-liked. I see Whelan losing in '11 more likely than Democrats unseating these guys. Maybe Tyner could do it.
I think Martin Marks may be running in the 7th to get his name up so he can run and win in 22 next year, that district will be very competitive.
Bob Schroeder takes Rooney's seat, securing it for the GOP.
Is it 2009 already?
Let's see: Jon Corzine is fading away faster than you could catch him; desperately seeking Hillary is still in the running; Frank is mumbling away; McCain might win NJ; Garrett is heading for reelection; Dr. Sabrin might be nominated by GOP (not the back to the USSR Chairmen) but rank and file Republicans to run against Democratic nominee; Real Democrats are undermining Ferriero in Bergen County; ...
Why do we even think about 2009?
Uh huh
Yeah, the GOP does so much better when it nominates non-moderates like Sandman, Courter, and Schundler.
There's a reason those with careers on the line prefer to run with the likes of Bateman, Kean, Whitman, and Forrester. They won six of the eight races the were in and they didn't destroy down-ticket Republicans in this not-so-Neanderthal state.
Six of eight races???
Let's see... Bateman 0-1, Kean 2 for 2 (one squeaker, one pass), Whitman 2 squeakers out of 3 (none above 50%), and Forester 2 goose eggs.
That is at best 4 of 8, with only one above 50 percent of the vote.
Coattails??? Except for Kean in '85 (most of the gains were lost in '87), none brought along any number of legislators or other officials into office.
Before you impugn the so-called neanderthals, get your facts straight.
GRIP Get Rid of Incumbent Politicians
Herein lie the problem. Incumbents are favored to be re-elected. Our government in New Jersey is stealing us blind through bloat and downright corruption. Yet we the sheep go and re-elect these clowns.
Wake up New Jersey and smell the garbage!. Throw them all out.
GET RID OF INCUMBENT POLITICIANS.
Only Patriots Please
We need to bring those into office that only want to serve. We need to take back government and stop the bleeding. It is time NJ to remove the dead weight, out of control spenders and replace them with small government advocates. DO NOT BUY INTO TO SPEND AND TAX WAY OF THE BIG GOVERNMENT ADVOCATES. Let's make government smaller and get them out of our lives. They have abandoned the Constitution and no longer enforce the laws of the State or the Country. Tar and feathers are in order. TURN THE BUMS OUT.
I was only looking at gubernatorial races
Which is the kind of race you were talking about. On national issues, even moderate Republicans have a very hard time in New Jersey, though Whitman came close. New Jersey simply is not generally sympathetic to Republican positions on national issues. The only elected GOP senator we've had in about forever is Clifford Case, who was probably the most liberal senator of the time from either party.
But for governor, the voters dislike corruption enough to turn the known problems out sometimes, hoping that the GOP will be better.
Counting Cahill, GOP moderates running for governor since 1969 are 5 out of 7.
The hard right candidaes running for governor are 0 for 3.
As South Jersey goes, so goes the GOP
The GOP has not nominated a statewide candidate from South Jersey in 32 years, and, since then, the GOP has won 4 out of 17 statewide races. 3 of those winners (1981, 93, 97) got less than 51% of the vote. And, of course, we have lost most of the Assembly and Senate seats in the south. See a pattern?
Those South Jersey
Those South Jersey candidates, Norcross (no relation to the Democrat Norcross, I think) and Sandman, did so much for the GOP. Well, maybe Norcross helped in the way you mean, I don't know. But Sandman was an embarrassment whom everyone on the ticket had to run away from.