Rick Merkt's announcement that he won't seek re-election to a seventh term in the State Assembly next year - possibly to run for Governor - will create a chain reaction that will reach the local level. Four Freeholders are considered potential candidates for the solidly Republican District 25 seat, and three of them - John Murphy, Gene Feyl, Bill Chegwidden - would have to give up their Freeholder seats to run for the Legislature in 2009. That would create another hotly contested primary for open Freeholder seats. If Doug Cabana were to win the Assembly seat, Morris County Republicans would need to hold a January 2010 special election convention to replace him.
The real prize comes in two years, when some Republicans say that four-term State Sen. Anthony Bucco, who will be 71-years-old, will retire. Merkt and his running mate, Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll, have had their eye on the Senate seat, as has Murphy and Anthony Bucco, Jr., an attorney and the Senator's son. Murphy ran a strong race for Governor in 2005, but is not expected to run again because of the crowded field from within Morris County (U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie and now Merkt, both Mendham residents.) If he wants to move up to the Senate in 2011, he may need to spend two years in the Assembly - if for no other reason than stop a new Assemblyman from being in a position to move up.
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Murphy is definitely on the top of the list
Chegwidden on the bottom - he has lost much credibility not fulfilling his pledge last year to resign as mayor or freeholder as support of the dual office holding ban.
Of all the candidates...
Of all the candidates mentioned, for the '09 race I believe that Murphy probably has the best chance of winning the open seat when Merkt retires.
However, in two years time - and if Bucco retires - it will be an interesting free for all. Morris County Republicans have a way of "forgiving" each other (even after bitter, contested primaries) so some old names may crop up to either challenge for the open Assembly/Senate seat and any openings on the Freeholder Board.
If Murphy should move up, it could present an opportunity for John Inglesino to return as a Freeholder. Or possibly for Larry Casha, who lost in a bitterly contested 26th District Assembly primary race to Jay Webber, to return as a county-wide Freeholder candidate.
Of the others mentioned in the 25th, Feyl and Chegwidden would seem the least likely. Although Tony Bucco, Jr., Doug Cabana, and possibly even Peter Mancuso may rear his head after failing to capture the State Chairmanship from Tom Wilson.
Who else can we add onto the fire? Maybe we can convince Leanna Brown to come out of retirement to run for a seat or possibly for former Freeholder Frank Druetzler to leave his Mayorship for Trenton?
This will certainly be interesting, that's for sure.
Veritas vos Liberabit
"Collecting more taxes than absolutely necessary is legalized robbery." - Calvin Coolidge