Who would succeed Lance or Stender?
By Wally EdgeOne political certainty: 2009 will begin with at least one special election convention for the Legislature – either a race for Leonard Lance's 23rd district State Senate seat, or a contest for Linda Stender's State Assembly seat in District 22. Lance or Stender would presumably resign just after the first of the year -- the new Member of Congress takes office on January 3 -- setting the stage for a County Committee vote betwee seven and 35 days of the vacancy.
On the Republican side, Assemblyman Michael Doherty and Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow want Lance's Senate seat. Karrow comes from Hunterdon County, which has the largest block of votes, and Doherty is from Warren; both parties have splits that would allow another candidate to pick up votes. Look for Lance to stay out of the race. And assuming its either Doherty or Karrow, there will be another special election convention to fill the open Assembly seat.
Possible Democratic candidates to replace Stender include: Union County Freeholders Rick Proctor and Alexander Mirabella; Fanwood Mayor Colleen Maher; Rahway Councilwomen Jennifer Wenson-Maier and Nancy Saliga; Scotch Plains Councilman Jeff Strauss; Rahway Council Vice President David Brown; Green Brook Councilwoman Melonie Marano; and former North Plainfield Council President Nathan Rudy.
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Doherty beats Karrow easily.
Mike Doherty is the top primary votegetter in the state legislature. Marcia Karrow certainly isn't going to take him out in a Republican Primary. Her best bet is to wait til the 23rd is split in the next redistricting.
And no matter what happens in the 7th, both Democrats in 22 are in trouble in 2009.
Mahr or Mirabella to Succeed Stender
Chances are either Colleen Mahr or Alexander Mirabella will succeed Stender if she wins.
Convention of RINOs
If Lance wins, there will be a vacancy in the 23rd L.D. and the method of replacement will be by a convention of the RINO county committee people, not a primary of GOP voters.
Yes, of course Doherty would win a GOP primary and probably win it comfortably.
But a convention would be controlled by the RINOs. And Karrow would win a RINO convention and probably win it comfortably.
Look at the history. In the summer 1992, RINO Bob Franks was chosen by convention to replace the retiring Matt Rinaldo in the 7th C.D. (at the time, a reasonably conservative, albeit not fully conservative, district).
And in the summer 1994, RINO Rod Frelinghuysen was chosen by convention to replace the terminally-ill Dean Gallo in the 11th C.D. (then and still one of the most conservative districts in the nation).
After Karrow is installed as State Senator, even though she will have only been there for 4 months, she will have the considerable power of incumbency making her difficult to defeat in the June 2009 GOP Primary.
Now it would be nice if I was wrong and Mountaintop was correct and Doherty wins the RINO convention.
But regrettably, I am right.
1992 and 1994 are ancient history
Add Peck's votes in Hunterdon to the Warren County vote and there's a solid majority for Doherty. No one's afraid of Henry anymore.
What people ought to think about is betting wrong on the Governor's race. It's mighty cold outside.
Addiing Peck's Votes?
You can't add Peck's votes because in an Assembly primary, people vote for 2. Peck's votes are likely already Doherty votes. More likely is Matt Holt jumping in to try to take away Hunterdon votes from Karrow to give Doherty a plurality in the County Committee vote. It is also wrong to assume Doherty gets all of the Warren County Committee vote. And Karrow is no RINO. She is a fierce a GOP stalwart as there is. Needless to say it is a dynamic situation that can go lots of different ways.