November 6, 2008 - 10:36am
Inside Edge

Open House seats: GOP keeps the less Republican one

Of the two New Jersey congressional districts where Republican incumbents did not seek re-election this year, the third district in parts of Ocean, Burlington and Camden counties is arguably more Republican than the seventh district, which includes parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Union and Middlesex counties.  In District 3, Jim Saxton won 58% of the vote in 2006 and 63% in 2004; George W. Bush won with 51% in 2004.  In the 7th, Mike Ferguson nearly lost his 2006 re-election bid to Democrat Linda Stender, 49%-48%, after winning 57% in 2004; Bush won 53% four years ago.  Republicans have held the Saxton seat since 1884 and the Ferguson seat since 1956.
 
But is was the 7th that held for the Republicans amidst a national tide of marginally Republican House districts flipping to the Democrats.  State Sen. Leonard Lance bucked the trend and defeated Stender, who had been campaigning for three years, by nine percentage points.  Republicans lost in the 3rd, where State Sen John Adler beat Republican Christopher Myers, the Mayor of Medford, by four points, 51%-48%.  
 
Some of the credit for Lance's win goes to Jamestown Associates, a Princeton-based political consulting firm that seems to have scored some key victories in Blue Jersey. Jamestown did the direct mail for Salem County Freeholder, where Republicans picked up a Democratic seat; in neighboring Cumberland County, the GOP lost a Freeholder seat and the incumbent Sheriff and Surrogate were defeated.  In Ocean County, the Jamestown-run campaign won clear,decisive victories in three countywide races, including a 53%-47% win for County Clerk Carl Block, who faced a tough opponent in Berkeley Township Mayor Jason Varano, who was the recipient of campaign funds from Democrats all over the state, including Gov. Jon Corzine.  Democrats went on TV and radio before the GOP did, and while Ocean is solidly Republican, this race was hardly a cakewalk.  They also had to deal with direct mail coming from a renegade GOP faction that was pushing for the defeat of the incumbents.  Ocean Republicans won, while Republicans lost races for Freeholder (two seats in Burlington) and possibly Monmouth, where Democrats hold an 18 vote lead in their bid to win majority control.
 
Another Jamestown race worth mentioning: a hotly contested campaign for Middletown Township Committee, where the GOP won by more than 5,000 votes. 

Wally Edge can be reached via email at politicsnj@aol.com.

Comments

We can thank the


sore losers from the primary in CD 3 for Myers' loss.

11/06/08 11:17 am

Jamestown is nice . . .


Jamestown is a nice group, but the credit for Lance's win needs to go to Amanda Woloshen.

This young woman ran Ferguson's race in 06, Jay Webber's race in 07, and then Lance's race this year.

I know Jamestown played a role, but they also were the top advisers to Zimmer and Chris Shays (and we know how both of those races turned out).

If there is a true rising star in the New Jersey Republican party, it is Ms. Woloshen. If I were going to run for Governor, I would call her before someone else does. Maybe Tom Wilson should hire her to reform the way the state runs campaigns in general.

11/06/08 11:59 am

Spare me re: Jamestown


It is amazing that Jamestown continues to receive work, much less "some of the credit," for Lance's win.

Larry Weitzner is still living off Dick Zimmer's 1990 primary victory over Rodney Frelinghuysen.

But look at the terrible advice he gave Zimmer in 1996 (possibly the nastiest state-wide race in NJ history; remember those stupid croaking frog ads?), 2000 (losing to Rush Holt in what was then a Republican-leaning district) and again in 2008 (Zimmer had no television presence).

And as someone else noted, Christopher Shays went down to defeat in Connecticut, despite representing a Republican-leaning district.

Leonard Lance won because of his moderate record in the NJ legislature and because the 7th District is still a Republican-leaning district. Stender has a less moderate record, and the voters picked up on that.

Lance will be an interesting Republican to watch in the next Congress.

11/06/08 12:46 pm

Lance win was great


Sounds like a bunch of sore losers harping on this one. The whole Lance team deserves credit: Leonard Lance is not exactly a natural politician. They were outspent in the primary and general but found a way to win in a very difficult year. They sliced Stender up without hurting Leonard's reputation. GOP could have used more wins like that.

11/06/08 1:57 pm

Congrats to the Winners


If u were a congressional candidate in this election and you won, you must feel a whole lot better. Adler, Garret and Lance all fought hard and came out on top. This was probably not considered a predictable result but these are our congressmen. I wish them all luck in fixing up our great country because right now we need them to go above and beyond expectations.

11/06/08 4:40 pm

also proves that...


Republicans actually won the Congressional redistricting of 2002...making the 7th "safer" at the expense of the already gone 12th was not popular among Republicans at the time, but the Holt seat was going to be safe for a while for the Dems anyway, and the ground gained in the 7th was the only reason Ferguson won in '06 and the main reason Lance could run in '08. The old districts would have made it 9-4 Dem in the delegation.

11/07/08 3:37 pm