With at least 200,000 newly registered Democrats appearing on the voter roles after this month’s primary, a new hope has arisen in Democrat Josh Zeitz’s campaign to unseat long-time incumbent Republican Chris Smith.
Zeitz estimates that 20,000 of those new Democrats will be in his district, which is comprised of four counties: Ocean, Burlington, Monmouth and Mercer. As of the last count, the district was made up of 17% Democrats, 22% Republicans, and 61% unaffiliated voters. Adding 20,000 new Democrats to the rolls will make party registration in the district roughly equal. Zeitz campaign manager Steve D’Amico added that the district is getting younger, with about 60% of the residents under 50.
“In this kind of atmosphere, in a year that Democrats are surging with these resources, party parity will make the difference. It provides the winning margin,” said Zeitz, 34.
But Smith says he’s heard this from opponents before. He heard it from Brian Hughes just after redistricting in 1992; and from Reed Gusciora, who promised to run an aggressive campaign in 2000. And now, Smith says, he represents the most heavily Republican district he’s had since entering the House in 1981.
“I wouldn’t want to sound like I’m ever dismissive of any candidate, but people have said almost if not identical things in the past,” said Smith.
Smith’s margins of victory have never shown much resemblance to the district’s party makeup. A moderate, pro-lifer who has held the seat since he was elected at the age of 27, he has consistently beaten his Democratic opponents by much larger margins than the disparities in party affiliation.
“I pull very heavily form the independents but also from the Democrats,” said Smith. “I’ve lost track of the number of times that people say that you’re the only republican I vote for. I hear it in every one of my towns, when I go to campaigning when I’m on business.”
In 2004, President Bush beat Sen. John Kerry in the district by about 38,000 votes. Smith, on the other hand, beat Democrat Amy Vasquez by about 100,000 votes. In 2006, an all-around bad year for Republicans, Smith trampled Democrat Carole Gay, getting 60,000 more votes than she did.
Smith pointed out that Hamilton, the largest town in the district, has a 2-1 Democratic registration advantage. But Smith consistently carries the town by 65-70%.
He pointed to the large amount of legislation he produces as the main reason for his popularity, noting that he wrote the nation’s landmark law on autism after meeting with constituents Bobbie and Billy Gallagher.
“I really believe that consistency is recognized and acknowledged by the people, and we find in the polling that it’s not just support. There’s always a passion and a depth to it.”
But Zeitz said that three things make his campaign different than those of candidates’ past: they’re raising more money than ever before, he’s hired the best team of consultants in at least two decades and he’s putting together a serious ground game.
Since November, Zeitz has devoted himself full-time to his campaign, and has hired a full-time campaign manager and finance director. Starting next month, he plans an aggressive door-to-door campaign.
The reason that Smith has been able to consistently win elections, Zeitz said, is that he hasn’t had any serious money or resources thrown at him in a long time.
“When you look at his positions – legality of birth control, stem cell research, timely withdrawal form the war in Iraq, balancing the budget -- he’s out of step,” he said. “The only missing ingredient has been our ability to raise the money to take him on.”
Zeitz raised $54,269 last quarter and has $82,766 on hand. Smith – no fundraising powerhouse – took in $236,447 for the quarter and has $405,006 on hand.
“We raised more money so far than the 2006 raised between April and November,” said Zeitz. “Money, consultants, ground game – these things make a difference.”
But while the district may have achieved party parity on paper, at least some of the newly registered Democrats were simply unaffiliated voters who voted Democratic in the general election anyway, said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. The party inductees just never had a reason to vote in any of the previous, uncompetitive primaries.
“There was also an increase for the Republicans too that he doesn’t point out, though it’s certainly not as big as the Democrats,” he said.
But, Murray added, Chris Smith’s fundraising has been pretty weak. Only one New Jersey Republican congressman, Scott Garrett, has less money in the bank. Although Smith beat Carole Gay by a huge margin in 2006, he only spent about $382,677 throughout the entire campaign.
Still, it will be tough for Zeitz to overcome.
“Unless the (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) targets this district, he’ll reach a ceiling in fundraising that Chris Smith will be able to surpass,” said Murray.
D’Amico, Zeitz’s campaign manager, didn’t want to reveal his campaign’s fundraising goals, but said that they plan to shatter previous records.
“These folks don’t know Chris Smith as well as they think they do,” he said.
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Wave?
OMG this guy is already sounding like a moron! So, lets see, he already is doing the Dennison thinking that all dems will auto vote for him cause he is a D, and then he INSULTS the voters by saying they do not know Smith like they think they do.
And this guy is ALL that? Zeitz is something super? LOLOL
Poor Zeitz; he will not realize that many dems support and keep electing Smith because Smith is a good guy and has a proven record.
Keep the idioicy coming
More Cowbell Please !!
don't see it happening
The recent primary surge aside, this district is going to elect a Republican. That is especially the case of a long-term incumbent such as Smith. This district includes some significant GOP territory. Zeitz will need to bank at least a million bucks and get some support from the DCCC, which is already committed to Adler and Stender.
In addition, he would need a massive blowout win by his party's nominee to make a run. Even when Clinton '96 and Gore won big in NJ, Smith did ok.
Can Smith be defeated? Not impossible, but all of the stars would have to line up right. I would be shocked this time around.
Come again, Josh
What an impression an upstart candidate like Josh makes when he brags-- not about the doors he HAS already knocked on or the coalitions he's ALREADY put together-- but about the 'consultants' he's hired. Talk about smoke and mirrors, give me a break.
Then Josh makes another great first impression when he implies that the voters are stupid and have been duped by Smith-- for 27 years nonetheless. Say Josh, if you don't win this November, sounds like you might have a future in diplomacy.
And then of course comes the knock on Smith that he is 'out of step'. Well, Josh should start an alumni club after this election of former Smith opponents-- all unsuccessful-- who have used the same, tired talking point. That club is getting pretty big by now.
Hamilton ain't a Democratic town
No one is unbeatable, but Chris Smith is about as close as you can get. Beating him will be tough...
Let's get real about Hamilton, though. While there is always spin that Hamilton is a Democratic town, the reality is otherwise. While it's true that the registration favors Democrats, Hamilton is equivalent to a lot of the counties in the old confederacy where the registration is still Democratic, but people stopped voting for the Dems long ago. While the occasional Democrat carries Hamilton, I think it is more fairly characterized as a swing town/leans Republican, rather than a Democratic town.
Josh is now 2 for 2 in the insult department
This latest article about Josh Zeitz now makes him 2 for 2 in the 'insult department'. Two articles, two insults hurled by Zeitz on fellow Democrats and the voters.
1. Last article he roundly criticized seniority on Capitol Hill, saying: “You can’t help but stop relating to your constituents.” Nice way to kick off Lautenberg '08, Josh!
2. This article, he says about Fourth District voters: "they don’t know Chris Smith as well as they think they do." Enlighten us, Josh, please! As serfs and members of the proleteriat, please let us know how to think.
Give Smith a Run for His Money
With Van Drew contemplating a run against LoBiondo because of changing logistics on the ground (e.g., a Democratic groundswell in N.J. and the nation), it is fitting for Zeitz, an upstart, smart Democrat to be optimistic about the timing being right for an upset of Smith. As a pragmatist, I realize the difficulty of beating Smith, even though his "moderate" record is belied by the facts on the ground, with his unyielding support of the Iraq War, his belief that a woman's reproductive system should be property of the government, his fundamentalist stance on stem cell research, his recent vote against prohibiting job discrimination based on sexual orientation, and his support of Bush-Cheney policies on surveillance that are in direct conflict with the Constitution. Compared to Scott Garrett (R-17th-Century), Smith is a moderate, but compared to Christie Whitman, Smith is a conservative ideologue.
Dennison 2
I was just about to write and ask where is ol tool bag martin was.
Smith wins by a landslide!
The other thing
no one has mentioned is the excellent constituent services that Chris provides. They have always been top notch and I have never had a problem when I needed something or had a question about something.
Smith will punch his Zeitz out.
With Saxton's seat and Ferguson's seat up for grabs, the NJ Democrats just don't have the money to wage an all out contest in the 4th district. The run a major campaign in the 4th, you must buy ultra-expensive media in both the Philly and NYC TV markets. Raising that kind of money would be tough in the best circumstances, but with big donors contributing mostly to the 3rd and 7th district races, Zeitz will be that sad looking guy on the street corner with a tin cup, holding a sign saying "Will spin for contributions."
Further, the notion that the voters don't "know Smith" is a joke. Does Zeitz really want to base his core message on the idea that voters are idiots and ignoramuses? Voters know full well that Smith is pro-life. He wears it on his sleeve and is proud of his record on that issue. But what partisan Democrats have never been able to accept is that he's given people who don't agree with him on right to life, reasons to vote for him anyway. People respect that he means what he says, and does what he promises he'll do -- even if some of those things don't always square up with their own views. Smith was a 'straight talker' long before McCain ever adopted that slogan. Smith was a 'compassionate conservative' before Bush and Rove ever coined the term, then discredited it over the last eight years.
Democrats need to understand that people in this election cycle are not looking for partisan hacks. Which is why McCain won his primary, and Obama is looking closer to winning his. They rejected partisan stalwarts like Hillary. The only difference between Zeitz and the other parade of old political hacks that have lost to Smith is that Zeitz is a younger partisan hack who will lose to Smith. Smith thinks for himself and votes his conscience. He takes on entrenched interests -- even those in his own party -- when he feels he's right. What entrenched interests in the Democrat party has Zeitz ever taken on? He's a knee-jerk, down-the-line liberal Democrat who is utterly indistinguishable from any other Democrat.
At least when Kevin Meara ran against Smith, he was unusual in that he was a pro-life Democrat with a reasonable position on gun ownership rights. But even Kevin Meara lost (although in his defense, he raised nothing in that race). And now Meara is basically a Republican. Like most Democrats with common sense, he figured out a long time ago that there is no such thing as a "big tent" in the Democrat party if you take religious faith seriously. Only moral relativists and those who ridicule and belittle people of faith need apply.
Professor Zeitz will be going to class this election
As Chris says himself, he will not be disrespectful of any candidate running against him, but Zeitz will be spending money to learn about how a steadfast congressman serves New Jersey and his constituents well. Do the Dem fund raisers really want to spend money for further tuition costs for professsor Zeitz? Let's hope they respect the Dean of the NJ Delegation ( Chris Smith) as much as the voters do.
Zeitz from Mars
The fact is Josh Zeitz is going to get crushed in the election against Congressman Smith.I think Josh is a legend in his own mind and is starting to believe the nonsense he writes in his" books".Congressman Smith is a man of great integrity,honesty,and is respected by Democrats and Rebublicans alike.Congressman Smith is a great humanitarian and always fights hard for his constituents.Most of all Congressman Smith is a independent thinker who is not afraid to go against Washington and fight for woman and childrens rights.We are at war in this great country of ours and the last thing we need is to have a neophyte like Josh in any leadership position ,unless it is the manager of the Barnes and Noble book store.
All Of The Above..
The only way a Democrat beats Chris Smith is if they somewhow magically re-districted him into Camden and Princeton, and even then he'd have a shot.
I love Zeitz's enthusiasm though, he's going to need that to put a positive spin on getting crushed by about 30%.
Irrelevant
Zeitz is as irrelevant as Martian One. Both are in Wonderland if they are truly believing that there is a chance this kid can beat Chris Smith. I wonder which one is playing the role of Alice? Chris is loved by his constituents and has the record of working for the environment and support from the unions which draws Democrats to support him. His fundraising numbers are actually higher than in previous years. So it won't be too much trouble. And keep beating the Iraq dead horse Martian. The surge is working. Ask John Murtha. Or better yet, ask the majority of the Democrat Senators who did not want Harry Reid to bring up the issue in the Senate earlier this week. They, too, know it is a lost public relations ploy. But you Camden County Norcross Democrats know better than the rest of us, right?
Dennison Redux
Yep, its gonna be another Dennison all over. What Marty and Richy never never never understood is that THIER democrats that THEY thought were a shoo in all voted locally GOP for Allen, Haines, Rudder, Addiego, Stansfield and Donnelly.
Zeitz is a no name political sacrifical lamb like Richy was and like Vasquez was before that.
Oh Marty, say hi to State Sentor Dennison and Assembly folk Riley and Fifis for us. After all you said they were going to win.
More Cowbell Please !!